Saturday

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
24,823
I'll put my thoughts up in the morning once the bets are on but I'm curious about the Hardwicke.

Firstly, what has happened to this race? It used to attract genuine G1/G2 horses.

I don't have my figures in front of me as I type but when I did them I was taken aback to find that in a nine-runner conditions race field there was only something like 4lbs on the ratings between the top and bottom. On RPRs there's 5lbs. The handicapper could hardly have framed a tighter handicap if he'd spent a week without sleep trying.

Here's what I find especially curious. Four of the five runners are at single figure prices but five are in double figures, and three of them are 33/1 or more. I don't understand how the bookies can in theory pretty much dismiss the chances of half the field when the most the weakest contender has to find is four or five pounds.

Am I missing something?
 
No.

I've got them finishing in a blanket too, though rather worryingly have the outsiders edging it. I need to try and get a handle on these polytrack runs though
 
Decided to go with Beethoven in the Chesham.

7F's is hardly a sprint distance for a June 2yo, and that 4 of the last 10 winners have a DI 1.00 or under is probably no coincidence given that they only make up about 20% of the fields. Mind you before anyone tries telling me that Dosage sees all, there are some very high DI's in there too like 5.67, 3.00 and 2.53 so it does look a bit random. I think the extra 2 furlongs will probably do for the American threat, and in any event he's not been as fast at Churchill Downs as some of the others, although half of me does wonder if perhaps he's been wanting further without getting the chance. I've also got it at the back of my mind that Wes Ward admitted to entering his fillies the wrong way round (not that we'd have realised) but I suppose he had to finance the trip somehow and figure dthis was his best way of doing it. With that in mind, I'm tempted to wonder (in the absence of having seen anything to the contrary) would he not be prepared to do the same with his colts? As Yogaroo's times looked decidely under whelming compared to his fillies.

In the end I've decided to go with Beethoven if only because he ran the same C&D as Lillie Langtry 1.02 secs faster at Naas a couple of weeks ago on ground that was harsher than anythign I've ever recorded +7.43. His rating would bring him into striking range for the Chesham with a bit of normal improvement. This normally goes to something rated about 88, and he put up 85.05 at Naas. He was noted as running a bit green for a second time, though my experience has been that O'Brien will bridge the 3 pts or so needed to bring him into the zone if the horse is good enough. I was slightly concerne dto read that he'd been niggled at as soon as halfway before running on, and I'm half wondering if he didin't really like the ground (+7.43 is hard, bordering on dangerous) and perhaps I shouldn't overlook the fact that he was narrowly beaten on it too. having said that, there's at least half a dozen easily identifiable formlines variously going back to Canford Cliffs that seem to point to him having anythign upwards of 4L's over his rivals, and 5/1 for an O'Brien 2yo looks about fair to me. I don't know how many time she's entered the Chesham (he won it with Bach) but I'm sure he's only had a couple of runners in the Albany (Rumpelstilskin and Youresothrilling) they were quite well regarded and reasonably precocious at 2, and if Lillie Langtry has emulated them by being placed in the race, (and one we thought was quite good) then Beethoven's 1 secs theoretical C&D defeat of her at Naas would seemingly set a mark
 
I am not sure Beethoven is their best chance in the Chesham. Think the Giants Causeway colt will relish this extra furlong today.
 
2.30
I'm leaving the race alone. Too many may improve significantly for the trip but Mark Johnston looks as though he has a serious challenge - he usually does.

3.05
I eventually settled for an ew on Tajaaweed.

3.45
This looks a proper G1 sprint thanks to the overseas challenge to Kingsgate Native and some other decent types. I can't help thinking JJ The Jet Plane will blow them apart. I thik his recent run reads extremely well. Kingsgate Native's form in the race last year stands up to scrutiny and if anyone can get him spot on first time out Stoute can. If the July Cup is the target for him then King's Apostle might get into the shake-up with the visor back on. He looks to have improved again this season.

4.25
I can see Jimmy Styles blowing this field apart if he's fresh enough (see Spotlight comments in the RP). There's plenty of pace far side though and High Standing will probably be first over there from Kaldoun Kingdom. EVens And Odds's rider has a big decision to make as to which side he follows. If he chooses right he should be in the mix. My only bet in the race is a heavy one on Jimmy Styles, which I've doubled with JJ The Jet Plane (brilliant name for a sprinter, innit?)

5.00
I've gone light in this race. It looks very difficult. I think Boz is probably the percentage call as I have him close to the top of the runers in form with a +p. Young Mick on his best form could win and Road To Love is lobbed in on his best although I do have reservations about the trip. The booking of R Hills makes me wonder if they'll they'll try to get him to the front and slow it down or whether they'll force the pace for the stablemates. Crackentorp is a +p but he's 8lbs off the norm and shouldn't be favourite in my book. That makes him dodgy value but he might still win. Tony Martin had an apparent no-hoper run very well in the Wolferton the other day so Siberian Tiger may well do likewise.

5.35
Nothing doing.

There's also a nice race at Ayr. The 2.25 should probably be a shoot-out between Peking Prince and Spinners End. I was all set to go in heavily on the former but the latter's win the other day reads extremely well from certain angles and I ended up going with that one instead at four times the price.
 
agree about Beethoven Warbler

that run the same day as LL was really decent and the 3rd was 9 length away..today's trip looks like a must..those first two runs look definate prep races for this..over an inadequate trip.

johnston has scattergunned the race so its probably fair to say theres nothing smart amongst his

honor in peace has a lot of speed and looking at the pedigree I can't see where 7f as a 2yo fits in

only thing putting me off emperor claudius is Moore..has rode the straight course here this week lets say disappointingly
 
I was impressed by Aerodynamic's debut at Nottingham; step up to seven should be right up his street (though admittedly that's a comment you could apply to virtually every horse in the race).

Kicking myself I missed the 14's last night.
 
Not done the research that I would normally do for this day at Ascot which is one of my favourite and perhaps not coincidentally most profitable days racing in the calendar. Usually attend.

This does not stop me having a punt on two horses which I have followed. At around 12/1 Kingsgate Native looks afair ew bet against the invaders whilst Asset is massively overpriced in my view at 30+ on Betfair.Will like the going and still retains a degree of class.
 
About Beethoven -he raced very lazily last time out behind a subsequent winner of a good race over 6 furlongs.The extra furlong should suit and the booking of Jimmy Fortune really catches the eye.
Moral of the story -expect him to be strongly ridden and in my opinion he is a lay to play both win and place.
 
Might have helped him though, he looked pretty outpaced at the start even taking that into account, and it allowed him to get over to the fence.
 
Boring but I can't see past the first two in the Golden Jubilee. At the prices, I think Sacred Kingdom is the bet. They look like they've got him back to his best, and I can only imagine the price he'd be in this race at Sha Tin.
 
Great effort from the trainer to get him right back to form. Similar rail run as his Coventry win last season.
 
With Lesson In Humility coming in on OR 106 and RPR 112 you have to question if they went too fast yet she was up there all the way. Did JJ put too much into his last run? Weird race but on LIH at 112, it puts Art Connoisseur on about 122, which would be about average for the race.

I now badly need Jimmy Styles to do his bit.
 
Last edited:
Interesting the ground looks quite loose on top and the times are alot slower today when you consider what speedy horses we have just witnessed. Was there rain overnight? Or perhaps an over zealous groundsman?
 
The wokingham will be a test of the theory that they have overwatered the standside..those going high will be suited in the Wokingham if they have overdone it..the times yesterday suggested there is something wrong standside..up to press no one has HAD to go far side..which they must do in the wokingham..you would have thought

so I will plump for a high drawn wokingham winner..as long as they stay that side of course

you would think that with the track records being broke on the round course that someone might think that the farside rail just can't be that slow
 
Back
Top