Scottish National

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
24,822
I hope to get to Ayr on Saturday, weather permitting. I haven't been for a few years for one reason or another.

I'm off this week and expect to 'do' the race once the five-day decs come out.

Anyone got any strong fancies?

Anyone going? Fancy a meet-up?
 
Gidam Gidam each-way.

Edited: Sorry, not even in the race.
 
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It would be good for Nine De Sivola to win as he had bad 'seconditis', yet after the Grand and Irish Nationals one feels ANYTHING could happen. (Please, dear God, don't let that 'anything' be fatalities. Safe journeys on Saturday to all.)
 
Looks to me like Nine De Sivola has been saved for this all season. Might be in vain if one or two of the others run to their potential, though.
 
Won't be there as I'm engaging nubile beauties in a You Only Live Twice bath scene type thing, however, my abbreviated assessment of the race is as follows:

Nine De Sivola still looks feasibly weighted, although this "type" rarely seem to win this race.
Merigo is the most solid option for me on paper, but I have nagging doubts again revolving around this "type" winning the race. By type, I mean the proven stayers. You seem to need soft in the going for such a horse to win.
The "types" that do interst me are those stepping up in distance, but who have already proven their ability to outrun their mark at shorter. Of those, I would nominate That's Rhythm, King Barry and outsider Native Coral as my top bets.

Enough with the typing.
 
After today's horrors I'm crossing fingers even more firmly. King Barry had caught my eye too, but with losing the lovely Percutant today Ferdy Murphy's Nine De Sivola gets my sympathy vote.
 
Six of the last seven winners have carried 10 - 7 or less, if that trend continues there's only six horses to choose from.

The Dessie Hughes horses might be the one.
 
I quite like L'Aventure judging by his Sandown run behind Kilbeggan Blade. Not sure about the ground for it though.
 
Simon, L'aventure is moody enough without calling her a man!!!

I always back her as I love horses like this who do not seem to want to know then come late for a place (usually).

Brooklyn Brownie seems a good ew bet to me though.
 
I've narrowed it down to, in racecard order:

Nine De Sivola 157p
According To John 164++
Out the Black 162
Hello Bud 165p
That's Rhythm 156+p
Chiaro 158p

You need to be able to hit 164 on the scale to win a typical renewal so That's Rhythm has probably too much to find, considering one or two of these will run to a higher mark than I've given them. Reluctantly, he's eliminated.

I like the idea of Rhys Flint claiming five on Chiaro. If he's worth his full claim you could arguably add 5 to his figure and I reckon they probably fancy his chances of beating his stablemate so Out The Black is reluctantly left out.

Nine De Sivola has, I suspect, been trained for this one race all year, given that Murphy targets it very seriously. The horse has been in decent form this season but a couple of pounds off its form of late 2007. I reckon that's no coincidence and if the horse has actually improved with age it could win yet again for the yard. However, I can't bring myself to back it to do so at such short odds, so he too is very reluctantly passed over.

My main fancy all week has been Hello Bud. A lot of the talk in the various forums has been that 11yos can't win this race but not many will come into it with Hello Bud's improvement curve.

According To John owes me, although that wouldn't be my reason for backing him. He was a very smart novice a couple of seasons back and showed huge promise first time up this season, having only managed one appearance last year. He never got into it next time at Aintree but that run would be easily explained if this was the target.

1. Hello Bud
2. According To John
3. Chiaro
 
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West End Rocker, Coe, Arteea in that order :-) what is it with this bl**dy interface -- they're supposed to be in separate lines & the s*dding smilies panel doesn't work ... nor the font controls ... wtf?!!
 
cant get enthusiastic about scottish national this year perhaps its because of the deaths of quite a few nice nh horses recently will stick to the flat at newbury
 
bloodnok said:
Simon, L'aventure is moody enough without calling her a man!!!
Click to expand...
Oops!

Does anyone know why she moved from Paul Nicholls? I've noticed a random trend of ex. Paul Nicholls horses running well in these National races, esp. the Aintree National. It was pointed out to me and it's true, in a way, although it's no doubt just a coincidence. Officier De Reserve for the 2010 National, anyone?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've narrowed it down to, in racecard order:

Nine De Sivola 157p
According To John 164++
Out the Black 162
Hello Bud 165p
That's Rhythm 156+p
Chiaro 158p

You need to be able to hit 164 on the scale to win a typical renewal so That's Rhythm has probably too much to find, considering one or two of these will run to a higher mark than I've given them. Reluctantly, he's eliminated.

I like the idea of Rhys Flint claiming five on Chiaro. If he's worth his full claim you could arguably add 5 to his figure and I reckon they probably fancy his chances of beating his stablemate so Out The Black is reluctantly left out.

Nine De Sivola has, I suspect, been trained for this one race all year, given that Murphy targets it very seriously. The horse has been in decent form this season but a couple of pounds off its form of late 2007. I reckon that's no coincidence and if the horse has actually improved with age it could win yet again for the yard. However, I can't bring myself to back it to do so at such short odds, so he too is very reluctantly passed over.

My main fancy all week has been Hello Bud. A lot of the talk in the various forums has been that 11yos can't win this race but not many will come into it with Hello Bud's improvement curve.

According To John owes me, although that wouldn't be my reason for backing him. He was a very smart novice a couple of seasons back and showed huge promise first time up this season, having only managed one appearance last year. He never got into it next time at Aintree but that run would be easily explained if this was the target.

1. Hello Bud
2. According To John
3. Chiaro
Click to expand...


:cool::cool::cool:
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've narrowed it down to, in racecard order:

Nine De Sivola 157p (unplaced)
According To John 164++ (n/r)
Out the Black 162 (3rd)
Hello Bud 165p (WON 12/1)
That's Rhythm 156+p (fell)
Chiaro 158p (4th)
...

My main fancy all week has been Hello Bud. A lot of the talk in the various forums has been that 11yos can't win this race but not many will come into it with Hello Bud's improvement curve.
...

1. Hello Bud
2. According To John
3. Chiaro
Click to expand...

Kicking myself black and blue for not taking the 33/1 midweek. What was I thinking of?? (Took 16/1 this morning, by the way.)

Also, Gone To Lunch has really f*cked me for a fantastic tricast :(
 
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