Scottish national

With monbeg out I have gone for a ligtweght in Magna Sam.

He's 3lbs out of the handicap so I took 7/2 about him being placed 1-2-3-4 rather than trying to find the winner
 
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Unlucky Tanlic. Looked sure to be in the first 4 two out


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Pleased for Christian Williams: had no idea his daughter was ill. Gets everything in perspective, doesn’t it. Pleased to see Flash de Touzaine run well because he was my top rated horse even though I couldn't make a case for it. And I always have to back the Doyle horses because it makes me think of Father Ted (aw, go on, go on…).
 
Betfair reduce for outsiders as well, soon builds up. I tell ya, between Rule 4s and non runners it's getting really tough out there.
 
reet hard said:
Always assumed rule 4 was a fixed deduction?
Click to expand...

No it can vary between bookies as they may be quoting different prices when a horse gets withdrawn (I also thought it was fixed until a couple of weeks ago) but I didn’t think the difference could be that big


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I said before this year's National that I was breaking a personal rule in NOT backing Vanillier because he's an iffy jumper, a decision I almost lived to regret.
 
reet hard said:
Always assumed rule 4 was a fixed deduction?
Click to expand...


ODDS DECIMAL DEDUCTION
1/9 or shorter 1.11 or shorter 90p in £1
2/11 to 2/17 1.18 to 1.12 85p in £1
1/4 to 1/5 1.25 to 1.20 80p in £1
3/10 to 2/7 1.30 to 1.29 75p in £1
2/5 to 1/3 1.40 to 1.33 70p in £1
8/15 to 4/9 1.53 to 1.45 65p in £1
8/13 to 4/7 1.62 to 1.57 60p in £1
4/5 to 4/6 1.80 to 1.66 55p in £1
20/21 to 5/6 1.95 to 1.83 50p in £1
Evens to 6/5 2.00 to 2.20 45p in £1
5/4 to 6/4 2.25 to 2.50 40p in £1
8/5 to 7/4 2.60 to 2.75 35p in £1
9/5 to 9/4 2.80 to 3.25 30p in £1
12/5 to 3/1 3.40 to 4.00 25p in £1
16/5 to 4/1 4.20 to 5.00 20p in £1
9/2 to 11/2 5.50 to 6.50 15p in £1
6/1 to 9/1 7.00 to 10.00 10p in £1
10/1 to 14/1 11.00 to 15.00 5p in £1*
Over 14/1 Over 15.00 No deduction
 
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viking said:
No it can vary between bookies as they may be quoting different prices when a horse gets withdrawn (I also thought it was fixed until a couple of weeks ago) but I didn’t think the difference could be that big


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Click to expand...
But isn't the price at the time of withdrawal
 open to abuse if bookies decide that price individually, or am I missing something?
 
reet hard said:
But isn't the price at the time of withdrawal
 open to abuse if bookies decide that price individually, or am I missing something?
Click to expand...

Yes, but it’s presumably decided by the starting price commissioner:

Rules for determining the Starting Price (SP)
The starting price for each horse is the market price at the off generally available to good money on the boards of those bookmakers in a sample whose each-way terms for a given race most closely reflect the each-way terms on offer for that race in the off-course retail market.
a. Decision rule for calculating SP
For each horse in a race the prices on offer by all bookmakers in the sample are ordered into a list from longest to shortest. The list is then divided into two equal halves and the SP is the shortest odds available in the half containing the longest odds. The SP or a longer price will have been offered by at least half the bookmakers in the sample.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/SPRC-Consultation.pdf
 
barjon said:
Yes, but it’s presumably decided by the starting price commissioner:

Rules for determining the Starting Price (SP)
The starting price for each horse is the market price at the off generally available to good money on the boards of those bookmakers in a sample whose each-way terms for a given race most closely reflect the each-way terms on offer for that race in the off-course retail market.
a. Decision rule for calculating SP
For each horse in a race the prices on offer by all bookmakers in the sample are ordered into a list from longest to shortest. The list is then divided into two equal halves and the SP is the shortest odds available in the half containing the longest odds. The SP or a longer price will have been offered by at least half the bookmakers in the sample.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/SPRC-Consultation.pdf
Click to expand...

Incorrect -you are comparing apples and oranges.
 
From memory I remember the wording went something like "rule 4 deduct x% - at the time of withdrawal Unruly Horse was 5/1" then there were different rule 4's depending on whether a new market had been formed or when there were other situations where deductions would need to be applied

But then again I'm always accused (rightly) of living in the past
 
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LUKE said:
Incorrect -you are comparing apples and oranges.
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True, but I was assuming (maybe incorrectly) that there was the same rigour involved in deciding the price of the withdrawn horse. Others have said that it varies between bookmakers which sounds like they use the price in their own book. As reet says, that would be wide open to manipulation.
 
A few years ago a large off course bookmaker had distinct talent for cutting horses from 16s to 14s just before they were declared non runners. Their name rhymes with Flowers.
 
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