Sea The Stars - Retirement Announced

J Alfred Prufrock said:
Interesting you should mention that, EC.

Dancing Brave's Arc was an exceptionally strong contest, packed with good horses, but people seem to forget that the horse did not massacre his rivals in terms of margins beaten, for all that he was visually impressive.

Shahrastani, a good Derby and Irish Derby winner but not an exceptional one for that period (he had since been stuffed in the King George), was 2 lengths and a short head behind him at levels. Shahrastani had an end-of-year rating of 135, which suggests that Dancing Brave ran to 138 or 139.

There was less than 8 lengths between the first 10, with that tenth horse Dihistan (a Hardwicke Stakes winner, but in the race as a pacemaker and eased when beaten) ending the year with a Timeform rating of just 122. Taking Timeform's weight-for-age scale at the time into account, this would point to Dancing Brave having run to more like 135 to 137.

The first 5 in the race were rated 132 or more (the sixth also would have been if you ignored the fillies' allowance). I suspect there would be cries of "hype" from the forum massive if the same were to happen now.

Dancing Brave also beat Shardari (134) by 3/4 length at Ascot, had some rubbish (Iades 121 and the perennial whipping boy Bold Arrangement 117) less than 6 lengths behind him in the Eclipse, was beaten in the Derby (:D) and had a horse called Vainglorious, who was rated 89 at the end of the year, less than 7 lengths behind him in the 2000 Guineas.

Personally, I did not have a problem with Dancing Brave being rated 140 at the time and do not now, despite some well-established handicapping principles seemingly having been bent to the purpose.

But I do think it shows that it is possible to pick holes in any form - well, almost any form - if you try hard enough.

This year's Irish Champion Stakes may prove to be an exception.
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Great post. No questioning JAP's eye for detail... :)
 
Euronymous said:
But how much weight would Bering have needed to receive from Dancing Brave for the result to be reversed? I'd say nearer 5 or 6lb.
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But that's not how it works. It's a bit like me claiming to kids that I have eleven fingers (which I can do, depending on how I illustrate how I count them).
 
Aragorn said:
I would have thought you of all people would support this theory as it would back up your own view of Fame and Glory??! :blink: STS is exceptional, why can't people just accept that!!!
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I try not to have an inflated view of how they run though. Fame ran a little worse than I expected, STS a little better. 133/134 might easily have been good enough to win this. As it was I thought STS ran a a bit better than this (to his highest mark to date in fact). I've no argument that STS is exceptional. I said after York (in agreement with DO) that he was likely to finish the season on an even better mark than 134... this is exceptional. I'm very open to his rating being open to further improvement if he is able to win the Arc. The sky's the limit in fact. But to achieve what Peintre Celebre or Dancing Brave (not to mention Sea-Bird) did in that he'd need to improve again. There's no saying he (or indeed another horse) won't do just that.
 
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J Alfred Prufrock said:
Dancing Brave's Arc was an exceptionally strong contest, packed with good horses, but people seem to forget that the horse did not massacre his rivals in terms of margins beaten, for all that he was visually impressive.
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Big winning margins do not necessarily mean exceptional ratings. Indeed if a horse wins very easily (as say Montjeu in the KG) you cannot give him a rating based on what he would have done, but to what he actually ran to. You could have added 10lb to Montjeu’s rating that day and still not captured the ease with which he won, but his rating for the KG rightly did not reflect the ease of victory (this is what the Ps and +s are for). This is why Montjeu’s Arc rating was superior as he was forced to run to his extent after getting held up on the rail.

Likewise Dancing Brave had to pull out all of the stops to achieve his 140 which was very close to his extent (but what an extent!), I would agree.
 
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Thanks for the info re Dancing Brave

I would just say..in case anyone thinks I am tryng to pull DB down..which isn't the case......he is one of the most visually impressive winners I have ever seen..its enhanced by the fact that he appears at the bottom of the screen..like he has just been dropped into the race

I remember that season reasonably well..I am surprised though that Shahrastani had such a high rating..in fact there seems to be a lot of 130+ animals around in that season....I remember backing S in the KG...what a fool I was :lol:

The fact that they didn't go hard early on points to his performance being more impressive than ever..to pass horses that would have had plenty of petrol left themselves in the manner he did was unbelieveable really

so..I think 140 is fair after reading what you guys have said re the actual ratings of the others

The problem STS has is that he isn't that visibly impressive..not before last Saturday anyway...its all done in that Nijinsky..effortless manner...which fails to stir many people..although Saturdays performance..when viewed side on when he came up[ to F&G was really impressive..he just was going at a different speed without any urging..he then appeared to sit there for a bit then Kinane went past and only gave him one slight tap.

The thing is..he seems to be improving..as did DB throughout the season..I believe there is far more to come in the Arc

I wonder if last Saturday had been his last ever run..just how far he would have won by if Kinane had really thrown the kitchen sink at him..he only really cajoled him and he was going away at the finish...again..I am bemused that people think he won't stay a true run 12f tbh
 
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That DB Arc is interesting. The pacesetters weren't beaten far, suggesting it wasn't that fast up front. DB, although coming from fourth-last, didn't have a lot of ground to make up. At the same time, he had to produce more finishing speed than other G1 horses - always the mark of a high class horse. And he was going clear at the end.

Was it worth 140? I'm not sure. It would mean several others all being around 137 (3lbs for 2 lengths) to 131 ( if beaten 6 lengths).

ORs do now allow for ease and/or of victory (whether they should is debatable) but I was under the impression they didn't in those days.

Was it really in effect the strongest in depth Arc of all time (which is what those figures suggest)?
 
Desert Orchid said:
That DB Arc is interesting. The pacesetters weren't beaten far, suggesting it wasn't that fast up front. DB, although coming from fourth-last, didn't have a lot of ground to make up. At the same time, he had to produce more finishing speed than other G1 horses - always the mark of a high class horse. And he was going clear at the end.

Was it worth 140? I'm not sure. It would mean several others all being around 137 (3lbs for 2 lengths) to 131 ( if beaten 6 lengths).

ORs do now allow for ease and/or of victory (whether they should is debatable) but I was under the impression they didn't in those days.

Was it really in effect the strongest in depth Arc of all time (which is what those figures suggest)?
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Sea-Bird's Arc was stronger, but that rated higher. Dancing Brave's Arc was one of the all-time great races, with the winner all out to achieve one of the great performance ratings recorded.
 
Hi EC

Timeform had their say on the matter in Racehorses of 2005 and agree that the margins were possibly exaggerated. However the ratings afforded to the placed horses that day Sea-Bird (145), Reliance (137) and Diatome (130) are more in line with distances of 4 1/2 lengths and 4 lengths, rather than the official.
 
davidjohnson said:
Hi EC

Timeform had their say on the matter in Racehorses of 2005 and agree that the margins were possibly exaggerated. However the ratings afforded to the placed horses that day Sea-Bird (145), Reliance (137) and Diatome (130) are more in line with distances of 4 1/2 lengths and 4 lengths, rather than the official.
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So Reliance is about as good as Nijinsky? :blink:
 
It's worth mentioning that another horse achieved 145 on the Timeform scale. That was Troy's timefigure in the 1979 Derby.
 
Not necessarily. Just didn't know how good Reliance was.

There's no way the Derby was worth a 140+ rating but that looked a powerful Arc run, taking it up so far out and gradually drawing clear without being too hard ridden. But back to the old 'take out' scenario. Take SB out and Reliance would have been a clear winner. What was the rest of his form like? Did he beat much in the French Derby? His other races?

We punters have far more and far better information at our disposal these days so we are in a better position to question or confirm the accuracy of the likes of Timeform's ratings.
 
gus said:
It's worth mentioning that another horse achieved 145 on the Timeform scale. That was Troy's timefigure in the 1979 Derby.
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I couldn't get anywhere near that figure Gus when you kindly posted the times for that day...admittedly I didn't know the exact ratings of the other horses on the card

I get the feeling that some of these old speed ratings..without the use of official marks for others on the card can be inflated tbh

Troy is one of my favourite..visually..Derby winners though:cool:
 
Troy's Derby was absolutely stunning and he's never had the full credit he deserved for it; he also died terribly young so we didn't get the full idea of his true legacy at stud.
 
gus said:
It's worth mentioning that another horse achieved 145 on the Timeform scale. That was Troy's timefigure in the 1979 Derby.
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Troy received a Timeform rating of 137 in 1979. The 145 you mention must have been unadjusted.

137: Troy, b.c., 1976 (Petingo-La Milo, by Hornbeam); In England: 1979 The Derby (12f), 1979 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S (12f), 1979 Benson & Hedges Gold Cup (10½f); In Ireland: 1979 Irish Sweeps Derby (12f)
 
"Troy...ran away with the Epsom Derby, and in doing so recorded a timefigure of 145, which is actually the fastest time performance I've ever published...I looked askance at it when the computer produced it, for I view the extraordinary always with scepticism, but the figure is absolutely solid. If you wish to be reassured about it, let me remind you that those who followed Troy home at Epsom were: Dickens Hill, who later recorded 128 when he won the Eclipse; Northern Baby, who recorded 134 when he won the Champion Stakes; Ela-Mana-Mou, who won the King Edward V11 Stakes at Ascot with a figure of 131; and Lyphard's Wish, who had turned in 133 in the Mecca Dante Stakes three weeks before Epsom: Troy beat these very good horses seven lengths, three lengths, three-quarters, and two lengths. Some performance!

Of course, timefigures off the top end of the scale, like Tudor Minstrel's 143 and 144, and Troy's 145, can only be recorded, even by exceptional horses, when they have everything else in their favour. Troy is a sluggish horse early on in his races, and he takes a very long time to get into top gear; he's invariably off the bridle to hold his place long before the real battle is on; but he has a tremendous stride once he is really in full flight; a mile and a half is barely far enough for him unless the gallop is a strong one from the start. In the Derby Troy had everything to suit him. The cracking pace had Willie Carson scrubbing him along before half-way, but it also put the pressure on Northern Baby, Ela-Mana-Mou and Lyphard's Wish and rendered these less stout opponents more vulnerable to Troy's finish. So, coming into the last furlong, they were at the end of their tether when Troy was at last in overdrive. Hence the fantastic sight of Troy's tearing past them and leaving them lengths in arrears all in the space of a furlong."

Phil Bull - Computer Timefigures of 1979.
 
SteveM said:
Troy received a Timeform rating of 137 in 1979. The 145 you mention must have been unadjusted.

137: Troy, b.c., 1976 (Petingo-La Milo, by Hornbeam); In England: 1979 The Derby (12f), 1979 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S (12f), 1979 Benson & Hedges Gold Cup (10½f); In Ireland: 1979 Irish Sweeps Derby (12f)
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It's a timefigure, Steve, not the form rating. But the two scales are the same.
 
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