Sea The Stars - Retirement Announced

gus said:
"...In the Derby Troy had everything to suit him. The cracking pace had Willie Carson scrubbing him along before half-way, but it also put the pressure on Northern Baby, Ela-Mana-Mou and Lyphard's Wish and rendered these less stout opponents more vulnerable to Troy's finish... "
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Ela-Mana-Mou went on to sire a whole bunch of stayers. It's amazing that Troy made him seem less than stout, or maybe he matured later?
 
I had a nice bet on Troy in the Derby that year. Brilliant winner and I've always thought he was generally under-rated.
 
SteveM said:
How do you rate him [Troy] compared with STS? They'd be hard to split I'd say.
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My ratings were in their infancy in those days but I always felt his form was of the highest class. I can't find any books for the era so maybe I was working to the Update weekly pullouts which will have long since been binned. 137 is always the figure that springs to mind when I think of Troy but I can't remember if that's my own.

(Either that or it was the bus home that evening...)
 
Desert Orchid said:
My ratings were in their infancy in those days but I always felt his form was of the highest class. I can't find any books for the era so maybe I was working to the Update weekly pullouts which will have long since been binned. 137 is always the figure that springs to mind when I think of Troy but I can't remember if that's my own.

(Either that or it was the bus home that evening...)
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:lol: I wouldn't argue with that. Presumably you see STS at about that level too? They'd be 1-2 lb in it for me at the moment with Troy possibly just shading it.
 
Maybe...

As suggested elsewhere, though (EC1?), the maner of victory is different. Troy totally burst his fields apart. STS kinda ambles past at his leisure like Nijinsky on vallium.
 
I'm not finding it easy to get a proper handle on the Leopardstown form, partly because the York form involved just the two horses - always liable to make it difficult - and partly because we can't be sure how much F&G had improved since the Irish Derby.

I found it very difficult to sort a time rating for York too. The times were all over the place that day. There's one tenuous line suggesting STS ran to 135 (which is what I had him for Sandown), in which case MCM ran to 133, full 9lbs higher than I'd had him for Royal Ascot. (Incidentally, Delegator didn't need to run to his Ascot figure last time out.)

If we say MCM ran the same race the other day - and bear in mind yours truly claimed STS was 10lbs his superior at York - then the five lengths margin to STS puts the latter on 142 (plus whatever he had in reserve). However, it also puts F&G on 137/138, which takes a bit of believing. On the other hand, it puts Loch Long in as having run 4lbs better than its OR, and it also means Grand Ducal has run 5lbs higher than its OR of 107, but then again that one appeared to have been on an upward curve. Confused? I am.

I had F&G running to 128 in the Irish Derby. If that's the marker then STS has only run to 132 but it means MCM has underperformed, which might be credible given he was reportedly totally knacked at the end of the York race.

Raceform had MCM on 129 for York, which the handicapper came close to agreeing with since he had upped the horse from 122 to 127 for that. If MCM has run to his OR then STS has hit 136 and F&G 132. This might be about right. It's certainly a 'convenient' reading.

If the Standard Times are accurate then STS has run to about 134, based on comparative differentials with Les Fazzani in the later valuable handicap.

Raceform also say their 137+ for STS is "the highest alloted to a 3yo since the service started more than 20 years ago".

For the time being, I'm taking the following view:
The pacemakers got clear and the next section of the field took them along at an even pace, allowing MCM and Loch Long (OR 96) to run their races, putting MCM on 129, F&G 134 and STS 138+. It also means Lord Admiral failed to hit his OR of 108 and maybe he was held up too far out of his ground. Grand Ducal, on an improvement curve going into the race, has improved to 113, having been in the even-paced chasing group. It will be very intersting to see how those behind the principals run in the next few weeks.

So, STS 138+. Better than Montjeu in the Arc or King George. Better than Peintre Celebre in his Arc. Hard to believe? Maybe but some were saying the Eclipse figures were hard to believe too...

Me? I count myself lucky to have seen (on tv) Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard, Mill Reef, and all the great ones since, and now this beast.
 
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Great reading Desert Orchid.

My question is that if it is generally accepted that Fame And Glory is better on an easier surface and over 12furlongs what sort of rating do you think he can hit if he can reach such heights over 10 furlongs on a drying surface?
 
Galileo said:
Great reading Desert Orchid.

My question is that if it is generally accepted that Fame And Glory is better on an easier surface and over 12furlongs what sort of rating do you think he can hit if he can reach such heights over 10 furlongs on a drying surface?
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not much more IF he just needs a very strong pace as Steve suggests - he got that and still got beaten

anyone that thinks he is better by some way though can really make a killing in the Arc surely?
 
I reckon there often isn't that much difference over 2f when you've that level of ability, in much the same way as Major Hern insisted Brigadier Gerard could have won a Nunthorpe. There would be as much doubt in my mind about STS hitting 138 at 12f (on account of stamina) as there would be about F&G improving significantly for the step up to 12f.

But not many Arc winners actually beat 134 anyway.
 
EC1 said:
not much more IF he just needs a very strong pace as Steve suggests - he got that and still got beaten

anyone that thinks he is better by some way though can really make a killing in the Arc surely?
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But what if, as you said before the race - and indeed most others, that he looks a horse that is much better suited to 12 furlongs and would get the Leger trip comfortably?

For my mind (and I said it before the result of the Irish Champion) Fame And Glory (as his breeding suggests) will prove to be a much better horse over 12 furlongs and for that reason I find it hard to believe he ran to the mid thirties figure being quoted on here.
 
And before anyone jumps on me for trying to downgrade Sea The Stars - I think he is 135 - 140 horse when pushed by a horse good enough to do so.
 
The way I see it, when they hit that level of ability they have to have tons of speed. It's probably the case that 10f doesn't inconvenience him much, if at all, in the same way that STS could probably drop back to a mile without any inconvenience.

On the other hand, F&G has so much stamina that he is very likely to be able to sustain his speed for longer and is therefore likely to at least run to the same level at 12f. Over longer distances, fewer horses will have the same combination of speed and stamina therefore he'll beat them by further and look more impressive in doing so. For example, Yeats is a 126-ish horse at 12f so would be vulnerable at that trip to a 'proper' 12f horse but he can also hit that same level at 20f when nothing else can.

F&G will be very hard to beat in the Arc.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The way I see it, when they hit that level of ability they have to have tons of speed. It's probably the case that 10f doesn't inconvenience him much, if at all, in the same way that STS could probably drop back to a mile without any inconvenience.

On the other hand, F&G has so much stamina that he is very likely to be able to sustain his speed for longer and is therefore likely to at least run to the same level at 12f. Over longer distances, fewer horses will have the same combination of speed and stamina therefore he'll beat them by further and look more impressive in doing so. For example, Yeats is a 126-ish horse at 12f so would be vulnerable at that trip to a 'proper' 12f horse but he can also hit that same level at 20f when nothing else can.

F&G will be very hard to beat in the Arc.
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Do you expect him to reverse the form with STS ? :confused: . I don't I think in fact that contrary to my expectation the fact he was able to beat MCM easily into third means I underestimated how much speed F & G has and I suggest he is in fact as good a horse over 10f as he is over 12f - the problem is it is nowhere near as much as STS.
 
Before the Derby I was one of those of the opinion that Sea the Stars wouldn't get the trip. Now, having watched how well he settles and how he has been full of running at the end of three very true run 10f races, I can't see him not getting the trip at Longchamp. The only exception would be in very soft ground which is purely acedemic as his connections won't run him in the Arc if those conditions occur on the day.

If Sea the Stars runs in the Arc, I don't see Fame and Glory reversing the form despite the extra distance. If Sea the Stars doesn't run, I think Fame and Glory will win it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The way I see it, when they hit that level of ability they have to have tons of speed. It's probably the case that 10f doesn't inconvenience him much, if at all, in the same way that STS could probably drop back to a mile without any inconvenience.

On the other hand, F&G has so much stamina that he is very likely to be able to sustain his speed for longer and is therefore likely to at least run to the same level at 12f. Over longer distances, fewer horses will have the same combination of speed and stamina therefore he'll beat them by further and look more impressive in doing so. For example, Yeats is a 126-ish horse at 12f so would be vulnerable at that trip to a 'proper' 12f horse but he can also hit that same level at 20f when nothing else can.

F&G will be very hard to beat in the Arc.
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Great post DO. I like this explanation and example.
 
Ardross said:
Do you expect him to reverse the form with STS ? :confused: . I don't I think in fact that contrary to my expectation the fact he was able to beat MCM easily into third means I underestimated how much speed F & G has and I suggest he is in fact as good a horse over 10f as he is over 12f - the problem is it is nowhere near as much as STS.
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So now from being a Leger horse, he is now a genuine 10 furlong horse - in fact the best 10 furlong horse Ballydoyle has produced.
 
Ardross said:
Do you expect him to reverse the form with STS ? :confused: . I don't I think in fact that contrary to my expectation the fact he was able to beat MCM easily into third means I underestimated how much speed F & G has and I suggest he is in fact as good a horse over 10f as he is over 12f - the problem is it is nowhere near as much as STS.
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Not necessarily.

I can see F&G running to at least 135 in the Arc. Assuming STS is a 140 horse he'd have to be compromised a wee bit at the 12f trip to be beaten but he won't find it 'easy' against F&G.
 
Galileo said:
But what if, as you said before the race - and indeed most others, that he looks a horse that is much better suited to 12 furlongs and would get the Leger trip comfortably?

For my mind (and I said it before the result of the Irish Champion) Fame And Glory (as his breeding suggests) will prove to be a much better horse over 12 furlongs and for that reason I find it hard to believe he ran to the mid thirties figure being quoted on here.
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I would agree with this.
 
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