Should British Racing Be Worried?

Isn't that the game? The question is why are the big owners attracted to Ireland, and having their horses trained there. If Joe Donnelly and JP housed all their horses in Ireland, it would be even more dire.

If you took all 23 Irish winners out, Ireland would have still have won the prestbury cup as they had the second in so many.
 
HawkWing said:
Isn't that the game? The question is why are the big owners attracted to Ireland, and having their horses trained there. If Joe Donnelly and JP housed all their horses in Ireland, it would be even more dire.

If you took all 23 Irish winners out, Ireland would have still have won the prestbury cup as they had the second in so many.
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And to my mind that is the main worry. Not only did they have the top horses (winners), but they had them in depth.
 
Forget about owners Irish trainers are just better. This season I watched with interest how the Sullivan horses would perform having moved from Mullins to Nichols. I didn't have to wait long for my results. Every single horse regressed what more needs to be said, if you just spend hundreds of thousands on a horse who would you send it too, its a no brainer.
 
barjon said:
As Kim Bailey said “ Cheltenham is our Olympics and the races were run at speeds we would not normally believe possible.. the competition was tough and the racing was relentless..”
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Kim Bailey is a hugely talented and experienced trainer. He's also very articulate.

I think he is choosing his words very carefully here.

I had very mixed feelings about watching Langer Dan in the last race. As you know, I put it up at 50/1 NRNB in the two big handicaps for which it was entered. Skelton rode it either uber-confidently, anchored and almost detached early, or very stupidly, for the same reason. He picked his way easily through the field from the top of the hill and sprinted a mile clear of the third and a host of other job horses. But there was one in front which had run prominently throughout and was not stopping. Not winning that race - and the accompanying bonus - must have really soured an outfit at the close of a bad week.

The strength in depth is a huge factor. The big yards can afford to run several in their own big handicaps and be competitive with their second-division horses while preserving the marks of the better ones.

Of the top of my head, I'm not sure I can think of a handicap hurdle winner that wouldn't be up to winning a graded race. My main bets in them were ones I thought were graded horses in handicaps: Saint Sam, Blue Sari, Champagne Platinum, Belfast Banter and Gentleman De Mee.

Only one ended up winning but the losers were all beaten by horses I reckon would win graded races.

As I've been typing this I've been checking back through the results. Maybe Jeff Kidder might struggle in a graded race since he was off just 125 but he was an easy winner too.

There's another dimension, in my opinion, and it links to the handicapping. These races are incredibly competitive yet the handicapping procedures make it impossible for them to be rated accurately. Horses that can pick up decent Class 2 handicaps end up beaten out of sight but the principals, if they finish close to each other, only go up a little because the handicapper ignores the well-beaten horses.

For example, using ball-park figures, if it normally requires a horse to be 7lbs better than its mark to win a £20k Class 2 handicap on a Saturday, the chances are they'll need to be 10lbs well in to win a £50k race. Take that up to the fairly regular £100k races in Ireland and you need to be 14lbs well in to have a chance. Yet often they'll only go up a few pounds. Come Cheltenham, for which stablemates have been plotted up because they're known at home to be better-handicapped, they're turning up with connections knowing they've got upwards of 16lbs in hand of their mark and there are several of them in the race. The losers' marks go unadjusted and they are put away for the next season because the owners and trainers have the numbers that enable them to do it. The smaller yards just identify one or two potential Cheltenham horses and set about campaigning them for the festival.

I would be pretty sure Skelton thought he was on an Unsinkable Boxer in Langer Dan. He had been campaigned 'Irish-style' if I can put it that way, and ended up being foiled by a Saint Roi type.
 
Interesting what you say about the Saint Roi type. I watched this about a month before the festival - recorded at the start of the year - and managed to back him for both the county and the martin pipe on the back of it.

Bit late now but drew a few people's attention to it.

https://youtu.be/cFxWsDd0qYA?t=180
 
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I was wondering how much the number of runners at the festival from the big English yards had decreased. These are the figures for eight of the biggest British stables this year compared to 2011.

Henderson 2011 41 2021 23
Nicholls 27 20
Pipe 19 9
Hobbs 17 6
TwistonDavies 19 9
King 18 6
O'Neill 12 7
McCain 13 0

Total 164 80

I don't know how much of the decease is due to owners being unable toattend this year, but that represents a very significant decrease.
 
I think Hobbs’ horses may not be 100%. Saw an owner of theirs yesterday and she said a fair few (including hers) had returned poor scopes during the week. I am sure the runners scored fine but there could be something in it.
Likewise Tizzard we know haven’t been healthy for a while.
Hendos looked well (they always do) but he had some issues earlier in the year.
O’Neill for me has always been something of an enigma. Backed by the top owner in the game (and one of the most generous) he just hasn’t ever hit the heights he should have done (IMO)
 
chroniclandlord said:
I was wondering how much the number of runners at the festival from the big English yards had decreased. These are the figures for eight of the biggest British stables this year compared to 2011.

Henderson 2011 41 2021 23
Nicholls 27 20
Pipe 19 9
Hobbs 17 6
TwistonDavies 19 9
King 18 6
O'Neill 12 7
McCain 13 0

Total 164 80

I don't know how much of the decease is due to owners being unable toattend this year, but that represents a very significant decrease.
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While they weren't of the same powerhouses as Gigginstown guess no one has really noticed the effect of leading UK owners leaving/reducing their interest in the sport had:
From maybe a decade (15 years) ago - perhaps

Graham Wylie
Paul Barber
David Johnson
Clive Smith
Andy Stewart
Robert Ogden
Graham Roach
Alan Potts
Trevor Hemmings also reduced.
etc
 
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jinnyj said:
I think Hobbs’ horses may not be 100%. Saw an owner of theirs yesterday and she said a fair few (including hers) had returned poor scopes during the week. I am sure the runners scored fine but there could be something in it.
Likewise Tizzard we know haven’t been healthy for a while.
Hendos looked well (they always do) but he had some issues earlier in the year.
O’Neill for me has always been something of an enigma. Backed by the top owner in the game (and one of the most generous) he just hasn’t ever hit the heights he should have done (IMO)
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Thought Tizzards ran well - Eldorado Allen, Oscar Elite even Native River kept going.
 
chroniclandlord said:
I was wondering how much the number of runners at the festival from the big English yards had decreased. These are the figures for eight of the biggest British stables this year compared to 2011.

Henderson 2011 41 2021 23
Nicholls 27 20
Pipe 19 9
Hobbs 17 6
TwistonDavies 19 9
King 18 6
O'Neill 12 7
McCain 13 0

Total 164 80

I don't know how much of the decease is due to owners being unable toattend this year, but that represents a very significant decrease.
Click to expand...

Owners not being there must have some effect, but I think it’s mainly because they haven’t got horses of the necessary quality. Seems fairly straightforward:

1. You can’t compete unless you’ve got the horse.
2. You will only get the horse if an owner buys it (or breeds it maybe)
3. Most owners will send their horse where the have the best chance of earning and winning.
4. Therefore prize money counts.
5. And therefore training techniques count.

As was pointed out earlier the top horses in the sales went to Irish trainers. Presumably because of 3, 4 and 5. It would be easy to focus in on prize money, but it would be complacent not to believe that the training regimes don’t carry a lot of weight.
 
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jinnyj said:
O’Neill for me has always been something of an enigma. Backed by the top owner in the game (and one of the most generous) he just hasn’t ever hit the heights he should have done (IMO)
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I've never been a fan, even when he was a jockey.

For me he's had a very charmed existence as far as racing is concerned.

I get the impression winning regularly doesn't bother him. I think he's happy to target three or four races per season for his main owners and just keep the rest ticking over for fun.

He's very self-effacing in his interviews and maybe owners find that very charming so they stick with him.

If I owned a good horse I'm not sure I would send it to him as I would never know if he was really just using it as a tool for landing a coup with a JP horse or a TH one.
 
frontrunner said:
Forget about owners Irish trainers are just better. This season I watched with interest how the Sullivan horses would perform having moved from Mullins to Nichols. I didn't have to wait long for my results. Every single horse regressed what more needs to be said, if you just spend hundreds of thousands on a horse who would you send it too, its a no brainer.
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Tribalism at its worst.
Move UK horses to Ireland, and you'd probably get similar short-term results.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Kim Bailey is a hugely talented and experienced trainer. He's also very articulate.

I think he is choosing his words very carefully here.

I had very mixed feelings about watching Langer Dan in the last race. As you know, I put it up at 50/1 NRNB in the two big handicaps for which it was entered. Skelton rode it either uber-confidently, anchored and almost detached early, or very stupidly, for the same reason. He picked his way easily through the field from the top of the hill and sprinted a mile clear of the third and a host of other job horses. But there was one in front which had run prominently throughout and was not stopping. Not winning that race - and the accompanying bonus - must have really soured an outfit at the close of a bad week.

The strength in depth is a huge factor. The big yards can afford to run several in their own big handicaps and be competitive with their second-division horses while preserving the marks of the better ones.

Of the top of my head, I'm not sure I can think of a handicap hurdle winner that wouldn't be up to winning a graded race. My main bets in them were ones I thought were graded horses in handicaps: Saint Sam, Blue Sari, Champagne Platinum, Belfast Banter and Gentleman De Mee.

Only one ended up winning but the losers were all beaten by horses I reckon would win graded races.

As I've been typing this I've been checking back through the results. Maybe Jeff Kidder might struggle in a graded race since he was off just 125 but he was an easy winner too.

There's another dimension, in my opinion, and it links to the handicapping. These races are incredibly competitive yet the handicapping procedures make it impossible for them to be rated accurately. Horses that can pick up decent Class 2 handicaps end up beaten out of sight but the principals, if they finish close to each other, only go up a little because the handicapper ignores the well-beaten horses.

For example, using ball-park figures, if it normally requires a horse to be 7lbs better than its mark to win a £20k Class 2 handicap on a Saturday, the chances are they'll need to be 10lbs well in to win a £50k race. Take that up to the fairly regular £100k races in Ireland and you need to be 14lbs well in to have a chance. Yet often they'll only go up a few pounds. Come Cheltenham, for which stablemates have been plotted up because they're known at home to be better-handicapped, they're turning up with connections knowing they've got upwards of 16lbs in hand of their mark and there are several of them in the race. The losers' marks go unadjusted and they are put away for the next season because the owners and trainers have the numbers that enable them to do it. The smaller yards just identify one or two potential Cheltenham horses and set about campaigning them for the festival.

I would be pretty sure Skelton thought he was on an Unsinkable Boxer in Langer Dan. He had been campaigned 'Irish-style' if I can put it that way, and ended up being foiled by a Saint Roi type.
Click to expand...

Skelton didn't ride Langer Dan???
If he did he'd have kicked for home way too soon a la Shan Blue or get there tanking way too early a la Third Time Lucki.
 
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frontrunner said:
Forget about owners Irish trainers are just better. This season I watched with interest how the Sullivan horses would perform having moved from Mullins to Nichols. I didn't have to wait long for my results. Every single horse regressed what more needs to be said, if you just spend hundreds of thousands on a horse who would you send it too, its a no brainer.
Click to expand...

I've been following those with interest too. All of them have been pretty hopeless.
 
Nicholls and Skelton targetting low hanging fruit in the early/middle part of the season, meaning they have no improvement left when it matters.
They also both swerved the festival with arguably their 2 best novices, why?
 
I think both are on record as saying the Cheltenham festival is just too competitive and PFN at least said he prefers to wait for Aintree


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tiggers1972 said:
They also both swerved the festival with arguably their 2 best novices, why?
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Nicholls has been unlucky with Topofthegame. Top class chaser who hasn't really had the chance to prove himself.

Whether he would have been competitive in the Gold Cup the other day is arguable but I would have fancied him to win last year's.
 
viking said:
I think both are on record as saying the Cheltenham festival is just too competitive and PFN at least said he prefers to wait for Aintree


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Christ, the Triumph had 8 runners if he wanted to run Monmiral and the Supreme had 8 runners if Skelton wanted to run My Drogo.
Can you imagine what the reaction would have been if Hendo trained the above two and did the same?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've never been a fan, even when he was a jockey.

For me he's had a very charmed existence as far as racing is concerned.

I get the impression winning regularly doesn't bother him. I think he's happy to target three or four races per season for his main owners and just keep the rest ticking over for fun.

He's very self-effacing in his interviews and maybe owners find that very charming so they stick with him.

If I owned a good horse I'm not sure I would send it to him as I would never know if he was really just using it as a tool for landing a coup with a JP horse or a TH one.
Click to expand...

I met him years ago and he’s definitely a charmer. But yes I think you’re right on the not being bothered bit.

I spoke to Porlock Bays owner this morning to offer congratulations. He is absolutely buzzing still. I am going to do an interview with him tomorrow which will probably go on the Wessex Area website and I will see if any other papers will take it. It’s a lovely story and I felt he deserved a bit of publicity especially as he wasn’t able to be there. I asked if he has received the cup (which is huge) but apparently it doesn’t get to leave the racecourse as it’s too valuable. He was understandably waxing lyrical about Will Biddick but what he says is lovely especially this year, is that Will regularly sends him videos “from the horses back” going up the gallops and walking along the road and through the river. He says (and he used to ride in point to points) it’s as though he was reliving his youth.
 
Harry Fry:

He said: “They’re doing everything better than we are, quite simply. We have to congratulate them on a fantastic week, and aspire to the heights they’ve hit.
“We’ve got to raise our game – big time.
“There’s going to be lots of thought and conversations going on. We’ve already started that, from recruiting the right horses to getting the right owners involved. It’s everything – it’s the race planning, the team at home, the staff that work with the horses.
“There’ll be a lot of British-based trainers taking a hard look at themselves and working out where we can raise our game – because we need to, or we’ve going to get left behind quickly.
“We’ve got big owners investing in Irish racing, because there is some sort of return, and there isn’t here. It’s hard to justify to owners when you’re running around for £3,000 in a race.
“I won the Grade 1 Tolworth, and I didn’t even win £20,000 for winning a Grade 1.”
 
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