Some Stats

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pawras

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Nov 27, 2017
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I have my own DB of past races, I generate my own kpi’s etc etc.

Anyway I’ve also loaded up the data that’s available from data.betfair.com so as to enhance my analysis, as such I have my version of bsp where by it’s the last price traded before the off, plus also record the price traded at around 700am.

As such I did a bit of analysis to compare isp against my version of bsp and the 700am price and came up with the following. Note the betfair prices have had no commission deducted.

See what you think….

Median Odds All Races.jpg
 
Desert Orchid said:
Congratulations, pawras, on such an interesting first post.

What would you deduce from the stats?
Click to expand...

On average in stakes races the difference between bsp and isp for the winner once you take commission into account is fag paper thin.
On average winners shorten on betfair from earlies to bsp by about 7%.
If you’re not trading etc then back early with BOG if possible.


Danny’s interest is primarily big field races so I produced this for him.
The amount that winners tends to shorten on betfair for AW races is quite dramatic , but that is because there are only a very small number of big field races on AW.
Median Odds 16plus runners.jpg
 
Last edited:
pawras said:
If you’re not trading etc then back early with BOG if possible.
Click to expand...

Excellent. That indeed is my MO and Slim Chance has told me more than once it's the right way for me to operate given I pretty much need to get all my bets on by about 10.30am.
 
How 'statistically strong' is the OR broken down by GB and IRE, race type and hcap vs stks?

So if you blindly backed the stand alone top OR in each race since 2001 what would you get?


1738100061954.png
 
Mate your memory is better than Colssuss's if you remembered you'd posted this 7 years ago.
 
Here's the PRB2 (percentage runners beaten squared) data for all trainers with runners between 20250211 and 20250216 based on data up to and including 20250208

I show it at different timespans to give a view of whether a trainer is in or out of form compared to their long term.

Percentage runners beaten is more granular than just simple strike rates.

It's too big for a screenshot and you can't attach spreadsheets here so have attached it as pdf and have highlighted the stand out ones that seem in or out of form.
 

Attachments

Next time I look at the code for that I might add a new col showing how many runners they over the next week.

I have the same report but for jockeys but didn't have time to fk around creating pdfs and posting that one
 
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