I used the spare time yesterday to enhance the spreadsheets so that I now have the running totals automatically populated, and it confirmed that handicaps class 4-6 is still the general area with the best results. That's just my way of pulling out some selections to help demonstrate the RFSP though, it's not how I will ultimate identify selections.
I've previously mentioned that I'm tracking a range of criteria, but within that I categorise them with what I thought would be the strongest selections (A1) through to the weakest (C4).
Ignoring the overall totals below (which is a sum of everything), the sub totals are the sums of the filtered options, which is where the selections I'm posting come from (i.e. including everything in A1 to C4 for these filters)) .
This helps to explain where I'm heading with the systematic approach. The first phase is information gathering, and then I'll use that to inform the strategy going forward. I haven't applied any filters for class here, this includes selections that were up to class 2, and quite a few from Irish meetings. A1 is clearly ahead of the other categories, and if I apply the 40 selections to a RFSP, I get the following results:
Worth noting again that the figures will be enhanced because the selection process is based on previous winners, so I'm not counting on producing something with a 15% ROI. There are a couple of other things I want to bring into the mix, and I'm hoping that I can identify 3 or 4 specific sets of rules that will generate a profit long term. I'll then take those into the flat season in the hope that I can achieve similar results, and certainly into the next jumps season to make sure they are repeatable.
I've also learnt from my Adrian Massey experience not to rely on a single set of ratings, so will subscribe to another ratings service for the flat season and start analysing those in parallel. Ultimate aim is to have at least 3 ratings in the mix, and some of the rules may then be to back selections where multiple ratings are in agreement.
