St James Palace Stakes

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At the Start
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May 2, 2003
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5 day stage entries:

Born To Be King
Delegator
Evasive
Intense Focus
Invisible Man
Lord Shanakill
Malibu Bay
Mastercraftsman
Orizaba
Pure Poetry
Set Sail
Soul City
Westphalia
 
This is surely going to be a procession for Mastercraftsman, I think Intense Focus could be the one to chase him home.

God knows why Invisible Man is in there.
 
Gamla Stan said:
This is surely going to be a procession for Mastercraftsman, I think Intense Focus could be the one to chase him home.

God knows why Invisible Man is in there.
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Any worries about fast ground? He must be pretty short in the betting.
 
Boyles and Blue Square priced it up... Best odds below...

Mastercraftsman Evs
Delegator 9/2
Evasive 6/1
Intense Focus 8/1
Westphalia 10/1
Soul City 16/1
Orizaba 16/1
Lord Shanakill 16/1
33s Bar
 
Silly prices in my opinion and Delegator rates a very good bet. He was far better than Mastercraftsman on decent ground and is priced up solely on the heavy ground defeat, which was never going to suit him given the pace he has.

I shall be lumping on.

Edited to say - This is one of my favourite flat races of the year! It's a shame the guineas winner won't be there.
 
Aragorn said:
Silly prices in my opinion and Delegator rates a very good bet. He was far better than Mastercraftsman on decent ground and is priced up solely on the heavy ground defeat, which was never going to suit him given the pace he has.

I shall be lumping on.

Edited to say - This is one of my favourite flat races of the year! It's a shame the guineas winner won't be there.
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I won't be surprised to see Delegator have his supporters (he is a very good colt), but I believe he hasn't a hope in hell of winning this. If anything has a squeak its Evasive (I'd really fancy him in the Jersey Stakes), but I can't see him getting to Mastercraftsman on his best day, so I have to believe odds against is extraordinary value on Mastercraftsman and the other two poor value at current odds.
 
Delegator, runner-up in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, will have a new jockey in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot as Jimmy Fortune is to replace Jamie Spencer.
Fortune rode the Brian Meehan-trained colt in his first two starts as a juvenile, although Spencer has been his regular partner since then, winning the Craven in great style before the pair found only Sea The Stars too good in the Guineas.
Delegator got stuck in the mud in the Irish Guineas last time out, finishing eighth of the nine runners to Mastercraftsman, who was only fifth at Newmarket.
"Jimmy has been booked for Delegator, obviously he's very pleased," said Fortune's agent, Tony Hind.
Meehan believes Delegator has a "great chance" of landing his first Group One success in Tuesday's mile showpiece.
"Delegator has been working very well and he is in great form," he said.
"We are very keen to run and, if the ground is right for him, he has a great chance.
"If conditions remain something like they are at Ascot now, he will definitely take his chance," he revealed on his website.
 
I don't think even those who don't rate Spencer would say he has put a foot wrong on this horse this season.
 
Galileo said:
The horse has blossomed since The Curragh...he'll go off odds on.
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On Gamla's advice I took 5/4 against on him yesterday at both Coral and Hills. He was odds-on with Paddy Power yesterday and Ladbrokes had him 4/5 this morning.
 
Galileo said:
Never did I think I would see you type that sentence! :lol:
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I'm almost tempted to pick up the baton myself as the Mastercraftsman doubter then. I'm still troubled by this horse and what seems to happen to him when he's pitched into a fast pace. My own figures tell me that he struggles.

On the all age par I use for equalising performances off on a level playing field his figures in terms of performance read;

97.26 on +1.82 (5th in the 2000 Gns)
96.39 on +3.83 (4th in the Lagadere)
94.00 on -8.14 (won the Irish 2K)
93.82 on -12.48 (won the Nat Stks)
89.88 on +1.32 (won the Phoenix)
88.32 on +1.48 (won the railway stks)

Now my figures are hardly gospel, but then TS also bring out the same pattern. His fastest two figures of 111, both met with defeat

111 - 5th
111 - 4th
104 - won
100 - won
83 - won
63 - won

Had he been narrowly defeated off a fast pace then you might choose to completely dismiss it, but that's a combined total of 7 horses who've finished ahead of him now. The only time he's met ground which I believe had 'firm' in the description also involved a defeat, though the Guineas might have been close to as fast as Good can be until you might consider using a bit of G/F in places to reflect it.

If I put him on his class par figures which should legislate for age and month of the year, the rank order emerges alters a bit with the Phoenix slightly slower by virtue of being a Gp1 than the Railway which is Gp2 and thus involved a slightly lower bar The Lagadere with a 2yo October allowance is enough to replace his Guineas 5th with a 3yo May allowance. Overall though the figures are much more tightly bunched, which is what we would expect as maturation is hopefully included in this set more accurately

102.61 - Lagadere
101.97 - 2000 Gns
100.29 - Nat Stks
98.70 - Irish Gns
97.64 - Railway Stks
97.52 - Phoenix

Even so, the two fastest were both run in defeat, and both seemingly occured on the two fastest pieces of ground he's encountered.

It points at one level to a horse that struggles if something can throw a challenge down to him at a furious pace, but then at least two of these wins have been registered with a degree of ease to suggest we don't know what figure he might have hit had he really pressed on.

The problem I have, is that my own figures suggest that the horse that's been exposed to the fastest paced races and has the best set of figures run in defeat (as he hasn't won any, though placed in the lot) is a stablemate who probably wouldn't be encouraged to win anyway (provided he lines up)
 
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