St James Palace Stakes
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There is a bizarre suggestion on the RP site that Spencer was observed by many onlookers to hit the front too soon in the 2000 Guineas - that's news to me . I haven't seen anyone make such a daft suggestion . The horse was produced with a perfectly timed run - he just ran into Sea The Stars !
I don't quite see why Delegator being turned over in a bog at the Curragh makes it certain that a horse he beat in the Guineas will beat him . I suspect Mastercraftsman has progressed past Delegator but I can't really see how one can be categorical on Curragh form.
I don't quite see why Delegator being turned over in a bog at the Curragh makes it certain that a horse he beat in the Guineas will beat him . I suspect Mastercraftsman has progressed past Delegator but I can't really see how one can be categorical on Curragh form.
Somewhat frighteningly, Westphalia:blink:
Who I don't really feel the stable believe in, and won't necessarily have a race run to suit him. Having just run in the Prix Jockey Club (another fast race) I wouldn't have thought he was a certainty to line up? Added to which I'm always a bit twitchy about taking times recorded by runners up, especially one whose been on the recieving end 3 times now. Having said that, I still reckon he's better value to place, then MCM is to win, especially since the jolly is likely to be odds on
It's my big worry about slightly ungenuine horses with ability. When they get pitched into fast races they can often go with the pace, without sticking their noses in front. Hence they tend to get sucked along by the pace and record impressive figures in defeat. Westphalia's speed figures with me at least, are quite a bit better than Mastercraftsman's, and even Topspeed has his last two efforts on 113, and 112 which compares favourably with the best couple that Mastercraftsman's produced (111 in defeat). His 104 when coming second in the Prix Fontainbleau, is only as fast as Mastercraftsman's Irish 2000 Gns. His record in group races (if you allow the American pattern in) is 1-6-1 which makes him a solid place bet, and is theoretically at least, as consistant as anything lining up at a double figured price,....... and yet I don't like it.
My best guess is that Intense Focus might not be too far away in that he looks like another one who needs a fast pace. He's pretty much the opposite of Mastercraftsman and has only done his winning, or put up his best performances when a fast time has been recorded. When he's been required to accelerate off a moderate pace and the race has been won in a slow time he's looked distinctly average
My best guess is that Intense Focus might not be too far away in that he looks like another one who needs a fast pace. He's pretty much the opposite of Mastercraftsman and has only done his winning, or put up his best performances when a fast time has been recorded. When he's been required to accelerate off a moderate pace and the race has been won in a slow time he's looked distinctly average
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Jamie
At the Start
I'm with your line of thought Warbler.
Gamla Stan
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I think Intense Focus is the value here, Bolger has probably secretly aimed him at this all along.
The simple facts are they have met twice this season and the score in terms of finishing position is one each, one on quick ground and one on heavy. The ground will no doubt be quicker this time and I just don't see why MC is the price he is relative to Delegator.
Can't access the Rp right now - Is this run on the straight or round course at Ascot? Straight tracks look to suit MC but i'm not sure he'll handle a bend all that well.
I was at Newmarket and both horses were fit and ready first time up. If people believe O'Brien didn't train MC for the 2000 I think they're kidding themselves. Meehans horses were not running well in the run up to the Irish guineas either if you want to take the fitness/form view.
Either way i'm happy to take the favourite on at the prices. MC's problem is it takes him about half an hour to get going and on a round course I think he'll be done for toe. Look at the Lagerdere last year.
Intense Focus is the fly in the ointment in my opinion.
Either way i'm happy to take the favourite on at the prices. MC's problem is it takes him about half an hour to get going and on a round course I think he'll be done for toe. Look at the Lagerdere last year.
Intense Focus is the fly in the ointment in my opinion.
Quite so. Mastercraftsman and Evasive will have certainly progressed past Delegator (who is good, but plainly not that good) and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if one or two of the others have progressed past him also.
Delegator was ready very early this season and has peaked in his two runs at Newmarket (trial and main event) when the others were only just getting there.
Delegator surely doesn't have much of a chance at Ascot. I wouldn't be sure of him being placed.
Mastercraftman is a bit of a monster compared with these, especially judged when in peak form in the Phoenix and Irish 2,000 G.
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Bet you Evasive finishes in front of him.
SteveM,
Your argument seems to be based on the assumption that Meehan trained his horse for the guineas and the others didn't - I find that difficult to believe. I don't see any real rationale for saying Evasive will have progressed past him. He may do but I don't see how you can back that assertion up other than instinct or you know something I don't!
Delegator was plainly forward early but I think Meehan thinks he's the best he's ever had and was probably just a little too effusive in his comments leading up to the guineas. Spencer thought he would win the guineas as well.
We'll find out Tuesday anyhow - I'm hopeful i'll get a decent price now as well judging by the general consensus on here.
Your argument seems to be based on the assumption that Meehan trained his horse for the guineas and the others didn't - I find that difficult to believe. I don't see any real rationale for saying Evasive will have progressed past him. He may do but I don't see how you can back that assertion up other than instinct or you know something I don't!
Delegator was plainly forward early but I think Meehan thinks he's the best he's ever had and was probably just a little too effusive in his comments leading up to the guineas. Spencer thought he would win the guineas as well.
We'll find out Tuesday anyhow - I'm hopeful i'll get a decent price now as well judging by the general consensus on here.
Gamla Stan
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You have to wonder how much of a mark the Curragh race has left on Delegator and MCM?
MCM looked a bloody picture at Newmarket, he was by far the pick of the paddock for me. It's not a race to get involved in imo.
MCM looked a bloody picture at Newmarket, he was by far the pick of the paddock for me. It's not a race to get involved in imo.
jairducochetfan
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I'm inclined to agree, I think he has the best fast ground form in the race by a fair margin and shouldn't be the price he is. I think its fair to assume Mastercraftsman has come on plenty for his seasonal debut and is liable to improve again, but its not the dead cert the prices have it as that he can make up Newmarket form with Delegator in the likely conditions. I think an rfc is the way to place this race, I may leave it alone altogether though.
What I'm saying is that Delgator is as good as he is (which isn't good enough). The others just weren't ready in time (for a variety of reasons). Mastercraftsman and Rip have blossomed since Newmarket and it's no secret that it was a race against time to get Evasive ready for the Guineas.
Big improvement is expected from those that finished around Delegator in the Guineas... more than instinct... the evidence of my own eyes and attention to news about which horses are at what stages in their progress allied to a lifetime's experience of judging which are most up for it.
It's my view that Delegator won't win (and may well not be placed) and that Mastercraftsman will win. I will be backing (and indeed have already backed) my view.
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If Delegator is as good as he is on decent going, Mastercraftsman will have to had improved at least 2 1/2 lengths.
As someone else has backed me up on here, Mastercraftsman was ready for the guineas and whilst I agree he has probably improved due to that being his first run (and what he has done subsequently) i'm not convinced its enough improvement to warrant the prices. That's my angle anyway.
I'm not sure what you mean by blossomed but Rip didn't really improve on his guineas run in the Derby. I don't think MC improved that much to win the Irish Guineas either. Delegator ran a shocker but to my eyes hated the ground and as i've already pointed out Meehans horses were in a hole at the time (The only winner he had in the week leading up to the Irish guineas was Radiohead at 1/10). He has had 4 winners from 14 runners since 8th June so he is in reasonable form this time round.
But this game is about opinions and I respect what you're saying and can see why you think that. I'm gonna go out on a limb though and back Meehans colt accordingly. The price is too big in my mind no matter what anyone says to convince me otherwise!
As someone else has backed me up on here, Mastercraftsman was ready for the guineas and whilst I agree he has probably improved due to that being his first run (and what he has done subsequently) i'm not convinced its enough improvement to warrant the prices. That's my angle anyway.
I'm not sure what you mean by blossomed but Rip didn't really improve on his guineas run in the Derby. I don't think MC improved that much to win the Irish Guineas either. Delegator ran a shocker but to my eyes hated the ground and as i've already pointed out Meehans horses were in a hole at the time (The only winner he had in the week leading up to the Irish guineas was Radiohead at 1/10). He has had 4 winners from 14 runners since 8th June so he is in reasonable form this time round.
But this game is about opinions and I respect what you're saying and can see why you think that. I'm gonna go out on a limb though and back Meehans colt accordingly. The price is too big in my mind no matter what anyone says to convince me otherwise!
You know what I think... It is indeed about opinions. Mine is Mastercraftsman is a mortal lock. I'll also be looking for match betting to take on Delegator with Evasive.
Good luck.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Can't really oppose MCM but Delegator shouldn't be in this. He's had three races already and should be given a break. Being at work I don't know what the prices are but if Meehan's colt and Evasive are shorter than Intense Focus the bet is the latter to place.
maythehorsebewithyou
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Soul City at 20-1 will do for me.. each way..
Gamla Stan
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Here's my 2 penneth with my ratings included (their highest speed figure in 2008 or 2009) and the prices they were this afternoon...
Born To Be A King (Rated 72) 100/1
Clearly pacemaking for Mastercraftsman, absolutely no chance. Odds on to finish last.
Delegator (Rated 86) 4/1
Looked the bees knees in the Craven, winning very impressively and earning a rating of 83 in the process. I think he improved on that in the Guineas, finishing behind Sea The Stars and earned an 86 for that effort. Then went on to the Curragh in heavy ground where he was beaten out of sight, can excuse that effort in that ground and if he bounces back to Guineas form, he has a great chance here. Jimmy Fortune takes over from Jamie Spencer too which is only a good thing.
Evasive (Rated 83) 11/2
Best performance came in the Horris Hill when he earned an 83 for me. Ran creditably in the Guineas when not getting the best of runs, probably improved since then for the run and not without a chance in this.
Intense Focus (Rated 85) 10/1
Raced a lot as a two year-old as befits a colt from the Jim Bolger yard, highlight of that campaign being winning the Dewhurst from the tightest of margins. Had a suspiciously long absence since a disappointing reappearance at Leopardstown this year and has a lot to prove at present against some colts who have gone on since last October.
Lord Shanakill (Rated 85) 25/1
Beat a short-head in the Dewhurst by Intense Focus and that represents his best form but has a miserable showing in the Guineas to overcome, yard seem to think he’s right again now but that’s taken on trust and he’s hard to fancy against the market leaders in this event.
Mastercraftsman (Rated 85) 5/6
Has three group ones to his name, most recently being the Irish Guineas which is his best performance on the clock for me. He has top class form in the book and was visually very impressive last time out at the Curragh, a worthy favourite but you have to wonder whether that slog in heavy ground will have taken it’s toll because it certainly did last time he won in heavy ground in the National Stakes. He also doesn’t have the high ratings I’d expect for a winner of this race but it might be enough to take this renewal.
Orizaba (Rated 84) 25/1
This Godolphin’s colt high rating comes from his 2 year old debut when in Mick Channon’s care. Has reasonable form as a two year-old and made a satisfactory reappearance this year on his debut for Godolphin. That was in a Group 3 in Chantilly though and it looks a long way off what is required to win this.
Pure Poetry (Rated 84) 40/1
Ran well in both the Craven and Guineas without looking like landing a blow, has lesser form around that including winning the Easter Stakes at Kempton on the all-weather. His second to Premio Loco reads very well though amongst older horses but he has quite a task to trouble the horses that finished infront of him in the Guineas.
Set Sail (Rated 78) 66/1
His best form comes from his fourth in the RP Trophy and his fourth behind French Guineas winner Silver Frost when he set a very good pace in the Prix De Fontainbleau. The step back to a stiff mile here may help but he has a shocking effort in the French Derby only 9 days ago to overcome.
Soul City (Rated 81) 20/1
Finished 3rd in the Irish Guineas last month but beaten a fair distance and whilst he has some good form as a two year old from his Goffs Million run, he has a lot to prove against three year olds with form in the book.
Conclusion
This basically revolves around the Guineas runners re-match and specifically Mastercraftsman, Evasive and Delegator. I think Evasive probably has more in his favour as he will have come on for the run at Newmarket where he looked unlucky and his trainer knows how to handle a three year old colt. He’s probably had this in mind for a while and the horse has more scope for improvement than his Newmarket conquerors, he also hasn’t got to get over a slog in the mud in Ireland like Delegator and Mastercraftsman. At a bigger price, I quite like Pure Poetry as I think this race will be run to suit and whilst he probably won’t trouble the front 3, he may get 4th.
1st – Evasive
2nd – Mastercraftsman
3rd – Delegator
Born To Be A King (Rated 72) 100/1
Clearly pacemaking for Mastercraftsman, absolutely no chance. Odds on to finish last.
Delegator (Rated 86) 4/1
Looked the bees knees in the Craven, winning very impressively and earning a rating of 83 in the process. I think he improved on that in the Guineas, finishing behind Sea The Stars and earned an 86 for that effort. Then went on to the Curragh in heavy ground where he was beaten out of sight, can excuse that effort in that ground and if he bounces back to Guineas form, he has a great chance here. Jimmy Fortune takes over from Jamie Spencer too which is only a good thing.
Evasive (Rated 83) 11/2
Best performance came in the Horris Hill when he earned an 83 for me. Ran creditably in the Guineas when not getting the best of runs, probably improved since then for the run and not without a chance in this.
Intense Focus (Rated 85) 10/1
Raced a lot as a two year-old as befits a colt from the Jim Bolger yard, highlight of that campaign being winning the Dewhurst from the tightest of margins. Had a suspiciously long absence since a disappointing reappearance at Leopardstown this year and has a lot to prove at present against some colts who have gone on since last October.
Lord Shanakill (Rated 85) 25/1
Beat a short-head in the Dewhurst by Intense Focus and that represents his best form but has a miserable showing in the Guineas to overcome, yard seem to think he’s right again now but that’s taken on trust and he’s hard to fancy against the market leaders in this event.
Mastercraftsman (Rated 85) 5/6
Has three group ones to his name, most recently being the Irish Guineas which is his best performance on the clock for me. He has top class form in the book and was visually very impressive last time out at the Curragh, a worthy favourite but you have to wonder whether that slog in heavy ground will have taken it’s toll because it certainly did last time he won in heavy ground in the National Stakes. He also doesn’t have the high ratings I’d expect for a winner of this race but it might be enough to take this renewal.
Orizaba (Rated 84) 25/1
This Godolphin’s colt high rating comes from his 2 year old debut when in Mick Channon’s care. Has reasonable form as a two year-old and made a satisfactory reappearance this year on his debut for Godolphin. That was in a Group 3 in Chantilly though and it looks a long way off what is required to win this.
Pure Poetry (Rated 84) 40/1
Ran well in both the Craven and Guineas without looking like landing a blow, has lesser form around that including winning the Easter Stakes at Kempton on the all-weather. His second to Premio Loco reads very well though amongst older horses but he has quite a task to trouble the horses that finished infront of him in the Guineas.
Set Sail (Rated 78) 66/1
His best form comes from his fourth in the RP Trophy and his fourth behind French Guineas winner Silver Frost when he set a very good pace in the Prix De Fontainbleau. The step back to a stiff mile here may help but he has a shocking effort in the French Derby only 9 days ago to overcome.
Soul City (Rated 81) 20/1
Finished 3rd in the Irish Guineas last month but beaten a fair distance and whilst he has some good form as a two year old from his Goffs Million run, he has a lot to prove against three year olds with form in the book.
Conclusion
This basically revolves around the Guineas runners re-match and specifically Mastercraftsman, Evasive and Delegator. I think Evasive probably has more in his favour as he will have come on for the run at Newmarket where he looked unlucky and his trainer knows how to handle a three year old colt. He’s probably had this in mind for a while and the horse has more scope for improvement than his Newmarket conquerors, he also hasn’t got to get over a slog in the mud in Ireland like Delegator and Mastercraftsman. At a bigger price, I quite like Pure Poetry as I think this race will be run to suit and whilst he probably won’t trouble the front 3, he may get 4th.
1st – Evasive
2nd – Mastercraftsman
3rd – Delegator