St Leger

Tks Steve. Good references included.
My first Leger memory is Bruni 1975 running away from King Pellinore; the first grey Classic winner I saw. Thereafter it was the start of the Autumn season of great races for me. Crow, Dunfermline, Julio Mariner and those that followed each had their moments in the sun. Once a Classic winner, always remembered!
I arranged to go to Doncaster 1989 as Nashwan had triple crown possibilities; he never got to St Leger and neither did I with the meeting abandoned.
Commanche Run winning in 84 and his subsequent exploits at 4 should have taken from the blinkered view that it is a plodders' race. Alas no.
The continued support for the race from Ballydoyle, Godolphin and Gosden puts the importance of stamina in the equine breed to the forefront.
Sixties Icon success as a first season sire indicates that winning the Leger should not be taken as a negative but a positive.
Hopefully Camelot's participation will help in the races resurgence; thanks to Big Mac!
 
Don't see any mileage in taking Camelot on, but I don't mind being against Main Sequence in the w/o market. Nothing he's done before, or his pedigree suggests to me he wants an extended mile and three quarters to be seen at his best.

On the other hand, I think both Thought Worthy and Michelangelo will improve for this test. Thought Worthy, had the run of things at York no doubt, but this trip will suit even better, and Michelangelo will improve for a flat track, I just don't think he handles coming down the hill at Goodwood. Happy to back them both EW at 4's in the W/O Camelot market, and do expect one of them to finish second.
 
i can see the mileage in taking him on David tbh..he won't stay imo and i will be a layer at 1.47 he is now..i might have a few bob on thoughtworthy as well
 
The Leger is perhaps the race for dosage analysis, Steve?

Is there a handy link to an article explaining how the scores are calculated?
 
davidjohnson said:
Don't see any mileage in taking Camelot on, but I don't mind being against Main Sequence in the w/o market. Nothing he's done before, or his pedigree suggests to me he wants an extended mile and three quarters to be seen at his best.
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I opined after the Derby that the first 3 would prove better at 12f or more, and nothing I have seen since alters that view.
Main Sequence won over 9f as a 2yo, and missed the Fielden on his 3yo debut as it wasn't considered far enough. Since then, he's run in 3 strongly run 12f races (incl 2 Classics) each time producing his best at the end of the race. His 1 poor run since probably a result of a Voltigeur run at a crawl.
Respect to those who judge horses on breeding, and those who trust dosage, but (imho) racecourse performance will generally trump either.
Ain't saying Main Sequence will win (Camelot should - unless the ground deteriorates markedly), but I'll be surprised if he doesn't stay.
 
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EC1 said:
I'd be thinking that Camelot cannot be a choice for the 2000g AND st leger using a stamina tool

if its that broad how can it be predictive?
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I hope the following is of help… With some horses it’s relatively straightforward, they show a concentration of points in the stamina wing of their profiles or a concentration in the speed wing. Assuming there is enough points in the profile (above say 20 points would be an indication that it was pretty accurate) for the reading to be meaningful such horses can be conveniently placed as stamina or speed types, or somewhere in between. Thus far it’s easy we’re talking on a more or less linear scale.

With others (typically much fewer) they show prepotent influence in more than one area of the profile, indicating that they may have more than one string to their bow.

Camelot is such a horse. Very few horses can be effective across the board of distance range, but Camelot covers most of the bases. In overall terms he is marked out as a horse capable of “middle distance stamina” in that while he could be expected to be fully effective at 10 furlongs (and a bit below) he will come into his own at 12 furlongs and beyond (Dosage index below 1). This is not to say he is a Gold Cup type for example.

Camelot Montjeu/Kingmambo 6-1-17-8-0 = 32 DI 0.94 CD 0.16

An interesting comparison would be with Fame And Glory (also by Montjeu) who is another such versatile type but one slanted to the stamina end of the scale. So that while he is fully effective at middle distances comes into his own, relative to the general population, at extended trips (note that the negative centre of distribution (CD) indicates pronounced stamina. Consequently while both are effective at middle distances we might expect F&G to outstay Camelot.

Fame And Glory Montjeu/Shirley Heights 3-1-14-6-4 = 28 DI 0.65 CD -0.25

If Camelot was ever going to be beaten for trip as a mature horse it would have been in the Guineas. Assuming he was good enough to win that (and we saw he was) the Derby and St Leger were always going to be relatively straightforward. Having said this if ever a Montjeu had a chance of winning the Guineas it was Camelot. Note that he has 6 points in the Brilliant (pure speed) classification as opposed to 3 points for Fame And Glory. While Camelot has 8 points in the stamina wing of his profile (all grouped in his Solid category) whereas F&G has 10 points (6 Solid and 4 Professional, the category that indicates extreme stamina).

As I said ahead of the Derby, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that can show off his versatility by winning over a range of distances. Most horses don’t show this.

So we sometimes have to look past the headline figures to get a more accurate idea of what the system is telling us as a predictive tool.
 
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Grey said:
The Leger is perhaps the race for dosage analysis, Steve?

Is there a handy link to an article explaining how the scores are calculated?
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Hi Grey,

In any race or individual it’s about the relative blend of prepotent stamina vs speed, so Dosage can be useful in races at all trips. However, I particularly like to use it for races such as the St Leger (also Gold Cup) were it can give us an edge where there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unknown quantities.

I hope my reply to EC makes things a bit clearer.

The tutorial here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/tutorial/tutorial_title.htm will be of help with the figure calculation.
 
Thanks for the link, Steve

There's a link in the first slide to a list of Chefs de Race. What does a sire have to achieve to be on the list? I don't see Montjeu's name there, for example. Too soon, perhaps?
 
The last 10 winners of the Leger have almost identical average dosage profiles to the last 10 Derby winners. DI of 1.19 for the Derby, and DI of 1.17 for the St. Leger.

This suggests to me that there is not much extra stamina required for the Doncaster classic compared to Epsom, or that dosage is not a sufficient tool to estimate the winner of the concluding two colts' classics.

Apparently the optimum DI for the Derby is 1.00. Why are horses that look to have insufficient stamina to be ideal for the Derby winning the St. Leger?
 
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The distance has to be a worry for Camelot.I backed Gosdens pair at 19 and 23 on Betfair last night.I think we could see a real upset here.
 
And even more bizarrely, the average DI of the last 10 Ascot Gold Cups winners is 1.11. So either there is no more stamina required to win over 2m4f at Ascot than 1m4f at Epsom....or dosage is not a sufficient tool to estimate stamina of horses.

I have really tried to warm to this tool, but it is very, very hard.
 
Grey said:
Thanks for the link, Steve

There's a link in the first slide to a list of Chefs de Race. What does a sire have to achieve to be on the list? I don't see Montjeu's name there, for example. Too soon, perhaps?
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Montjeu hasn’t made the list yet, but is a strong candidate to be included before long. He is one who is under examination as part of ongoing review. He has an AWD of about 11.4 furlongs for his progeny and throws up a concentration of middle distance and staying types. There is good evidence of prepotent influence. Which of course is all the more grist to Camelot’s mill for getting the Leger trip (as he isn't included at the moment).
 
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Bar the Bull said:
And even more bizarrely, the average DI of the last 10 Ascot Gold Cups winners is 1.11. So either there is no more stamina required to win over 2m4f at Ascot than 1m4f at Epsom....or dosage is not a sufficient tool to estimate stamina of horses.

I have really tried to warm to this tool, but it is very, very hard.
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This is what might be expected though. The class horse at a shorter trip can often win at an extended trip. But when you get the right type for a stamina race (invariably with a lower DI than the average) that also has Group 1 class you have a clear indication which way to go. In the real world it's often balancing one against the other to find the best fit in any given race. This is why I show the average then show how the ideal right type might deviate from this.

You are probably expecting too much from the system. It shows where relative stamina strengths lie and all other things being equal, which one should outstay another at a given trip.
 
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I am sorry, Steve.

That excuse doesn't wash with me. What you are effectively saying is that horses with speedy dosage profiles that manage to win staying races should be the "classy" horses.

Of the last 10 Ascot Gold Cup winners, the ones with the speediest dosage profiles seem to be the ones with the least class (as expressed by RPR). Mr. Dinos, Royal Rebel and Rite of Passage all have DI's greater than 1.00.....and are three of the four weakest Ascot Gold Cup winners since 1998.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
I am sorry, Steve.

That excuse doesn't wash with me. What you are effectively saying is that horses with speedy dosage profiles that manage to win staying races should be the "classy" horses.

Of the last 10 Ascot Gold Cup winners, the ones with the speediest dosage profiles seem to be the ones with the least class (as expressed by RPR). Mr. Dinos, Royal Rebel and Rite of Passage all have DI's greater than 1.00.....and are three of the four weakest Ascot Gold Cup winners since 1998.
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But also there are anomalies that affect the average (not all Dosage readings are accurate for one reason or another). Hence Rule Of Law defied guidelines in 2004 with a DI of 2.11 and Arctic Cosmos had a higher than average DI of 1.77 when successful in 2010. However, typically a DI of 1 or lower is required together with a low or negative centre of distribution (CD). If the class horse has the lower DI of two in a stamina race that is usually the one to go for.
 
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Camelot is being left to do it on his own with both Imperial Monarch and Chamonix out. He faces just eight.
 
edgt said:
Tks Steve. Good references included.
My first Leger memory is Bruni 1975 running away from King Pellinore; the first grey Classic winner I saw. Thereafter it was the start of the Autumn season of great races for me. Crow, Dunfermline, Julio Mariner and those that followed each had their moments in the sun. Once a Classic winner, always remembered!
I arranged to go to Doncaster 1989 as Nashwan had triple crown possibilities; he never got to St Leger and neither did I with the meeting abandoned.
Commanche Run winning in 84 and his subsequent exploits at 4 should have taken from the blinkered view that it is a plodders' race. Alas no.
The continued support for the race from Ballydoyle, Godolphin and Gosden puts the importance of stamina in the equine breed to the forefront.
Sixties Icon success as a first season sire indicates that winning the Leger should not be taken as a negative but a positive.
Hopefully Camelot's participation will help in the races resurgence; thanks to Big Mac!
Click to expand...

Great memories I'd agree edgt. Not just Big Mac either... this was my reply to Michael Harris who insisted Camelot wouldn’t take part at Doncaster. Extract:

Michael Harris cites commercial bloodstock considerations, insisting “the bloodstock industry is all about speed these days”. While it is true the US mania for speed over stamina has caught hold of breeding fashion in recent years, it is to Coolmore’s credit that it has in many respects stood in defiance to this, introducing stamina lines back into the breed primarily through Sadler’s Wells and his sons Montjeu and Galileo (with the likes of Yeats and Pour Moi now also standing in Ireland).

So in answer to Mr Harris’s question “are connections really interested in taking the St Leger?” the answer, in the context of Camelot already winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown, has to be a resounding yes.

The Triple Crown says more about a thoroughbred than any single race could

The Triple Crown has proved to be British racing’s elusive Holy Grail, with Nijinsky the last to achieve it in 1970 and Bahram the one before that in 1935. Attaining the full set is certainly something to strive for. Individuals with the versatility to win at eight, 12 and 14 furlongs at Group 1 level are rare. Sadly even among those capable of proving themselves over a range of distances few try, due to perceived commercial considerations and the proximity of the Arc to the St Leger.

For those who look on the St Leger as some sort of consolation prize, the commercial value of good 1m2f or 1m4f horses no doubt may appear compromised by winning the race. However, if we look at the three Classics as a set, Camelot’s stud value would be enhanced, rather than diminished (as some have suggested), to those looking to inject versatility into the breed.
I am confident Coolmore would love to showcase him on this basis, particularly as a Montjeu/Kingmambo cross is the right type of horse with which to attempt it. And what is to stop Camelot dropping back in trip to take on Frankel in the Champion Stakes at Ascot after the St Leger? That would be a race to see, sealing the winner’s reputation for all time.

In many ways the Sea The Stars route of Irish Champion Stakes/Arc is the more sensible one in attempting to maximise commercial value, but the Triple Crown says more about a thoroughbred than any single race could.

Camelot’s connections have little more to prove and the colt’s chances of going to Doncaster must be enhanced by being part of the Ballydoyle/Coolmore operation. They have no imperative to plough the same furrow as others and have the luxury of tailoring a horse's programme to suit his individual requirements.

In achieving the Triple Crown with Camelot, Aidan O’Brien would be handing John Magnier, Derrick Smith and co something very special, indeed something against which even Arc winners could be judged two a penny.

Is the St Leger the way to go? Bahram, Nijinsky, Camelot... you bet it is.
 
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SteveM said:
But also there are anomalies that affect the average (not all Dosage readings are accurate for one reason or another).
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Fair enough, but this is why you should pick an average.

Hence Rule Of Law defied guidelines in 2004 with a DI of 2.11 and Arctic Cosmos had a higher than average DI of 1.77 when successful in 2010.
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But you always told me the higher the reading the better? Rule of Law has 52 points...easily enough for an accurate reading. Agreed about Arctic Cosmos, but if you are throwing him out (18 points too low), you need to throw out Mastery (18 points) and Masked Marvel (16 points).

However, typically a DI of 1 or lower is required together with a low or negative centre of distribution (CD). .
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Past history doesn't suggest that to me.

If the class horse has the lower DI of two in a stamina race that is usually the one to go for.
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Usually? I am losing faith by the minute.
 
There is a fair bit of fitting the system to supoprt the argument.

Anyway, i'm against Camelot in this and think he'll run out of petrol in the final furlong. I got this down to Main Sequence and Thomas Chippendale and having backed the former at 16's a while back i'm gonna have a decent e/w punt on the Cecil runner. Dansili wouldn't be a typical Leger sire but TC's family is one of the classiest staying families around and Dansili has got plenty of top class middle distance horses when the dam side is stamina laden. I also think his Royal Ascot run showed he has the stamina as he only got on top towards the end. The Voltigeur was not run to suit and if Cecil can get him to settle then I think he has every chance and at the prices I think he is too big.

I was a fan of Thought Worthy earlier in the season but think he has been exposed and won't be good enough and contrary to what most people think I can;t see Michaelangelo getting the trip. He looks like a teenager that hasn't filled out yet and he will be a 10f-12f horse if he stays in training next year.
 
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Forgot to mention him, he was third on my list. Trip won't be a problem, my biggest issue was trying to work out how his form stands up to the others and I couldn't!!
 
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