Staking Advice/How do you do it?

[Double J]

Bit of a follow on from on the other thread.

Whats your staking methods? You betting full tank on one you fancy strong? (All the questions are hypothetical obviously, as price always plays a part)

You make one 7/4 and it’s priced 11/2, you going bigger? All in? I think thats an obvious answer, but in terms of what % of your tank would you be willing to partake with it?

Do you stick that in a multi with others you may/may not fancy?

I always multi a few, and single my stronger fancies for bigger stakes.

Ive had a few nice touches in the past, but often get annoyed with myself for not having more on. Then the odd occasion I have more on, and it loses, im pissed I had more on.

No shame in saying one of my biggest bets was’Any Second Now’ in National. What possessed me to have what i had on, in one of the most competitive handicaps i dont know. Obviously got beat, and Ive been pretty trigger shy since and stuck to staking methods.

(I dont play each way either, am i being stupid there?)

 

[Slim]

15) Take the most risk when your betting tank is small. If you see a big rick and you can get on, move all in. You can always find another small tank, you can't always find another big rick...

21) By thr time your Kelly Criterion calculates the perfect stake the price will be gone. Trust your intuition you c***...

26) The optimal stake is the correct balance between not regretting having had more on when it wins and the maximum pain you can take when it gets beat. This is a key betting intuition that is only learnt the hard way.

 

[Ian_Davies]

"The bigger the price, the bigger the bet!"

That's all well and good if you don't have one scintilla of doubt about the integrity of what you're betting on, but when a horse from a yard with previous drifts like a barge before a Class 6 in Danny's back garden on a wet Monday night, it might not be a good sign.

I'm incredibly risk averse - I didn't used to be like this, there was a time when I had bottle, but I think some fella in Ireland may have nicked said receptacle off me - and stay within my comfort zone.

But I don't need to win to eat and keep a roof over my head, so I can afford the luxury of gutlessness.

Keep chipping anyway at horses that are the wrong price - bet them each-way if cash flow becomes an issue when it's a long time between drinks - and one last thing.....if you ever meet a bloke named after a town in Hertfordshire who says he has a trainers in form system that operates 30 days in arrears...run, run fast and don't stop running until you're in the next County.

 

[Slim]

It’s one of those things in betting people love to over-complicate. The actual skill is finding good bets — your stake just releases the equity. There’s nothing wrong with keeping it simple: 1pt win as standard, 2pts win when it’s a very good bet, 3pts win when it’s already won. All this worrying about “true price” sounds great, but let’s be honest: none of us have a notion what the true price is.

 

[Ian_Davies]

It’s one of those things in betting people love to over-complicate. The actual skill is finding good bets — your stake just releases the equity. There’s nothing wrong with keeping it simple: 1pt win as standard, 2pts win when it’s a very good bet, 3pts win when it’s already won. All this worrying about “true price” sounds great, but let’s be honest: none of us have a notion what the true price is.

I definitely think many overcomplicate it.

I just look at a race, form a view on their relative chances, then look at where I disagree with the market when the betting opens up.

But sometimes there are horses I've been waiting for who I can't have beat if conditions are in their favour and with those it's just a case of a minimum price I want in order to bet them.

Tbh, I'm not big on universal rules - anyone who can make the game pay is obviously getting something right and my way of keeping my head above water doesn't have to be other people's way.

There's more than one way to skin a cat and that's a notion the game's pedants can't seem to get to grips with.

 

[barjon]

It’s one of those things in betting people love to over-complicate. The actual skill is finding good bets — your stake just releases the equity. There’s nothing wrong with keeping it simple: 1pt win as standard, 2pts win when it’s a very good bet, 3pts win when it’s already won. All this worrying about “true price” sounds great, but let’s be honest: none of us have a notion what the true price is.

“ but let’s be honest: none of us have a notion what the true price is.” Absolutely!

I love it when my horse goes shorter and I chase the price down adding as I go. That’s not the way is it - getting worse and worse “value”? And I hate it when my horse drifts, it’s supposedly becoming better and better “value”, but it’s the death knell for me and I certainly won’t bet if it goes that way and hang my head in my hands if I’m already aboard.

 

[Danny]

It’s one of those things in betting people love to over-complicate. The actual skill is finding good bets — your stake just releases the equity. There’s nothing wrong with keeping it simple: 1pt win as standard, 2pts win when it’s a very good bet, 3pts win when it’s already won. All this worrying about “true price” sounds great, but let’s be honest: none of us have a notion what the true price is.

Like Slim I've seen loads of threads and lots of opinions on it. Ive been a master of the "wet dog staking system" over the years myself but wouldnt recommend it to anyone.

I don't think it's a case of the bigger the price the more you have on but most of my bigger bets have been on big priced horses, tbh I didnt really like to bet at less than 5/1 back when I was betting and having a proper go.

What Slim has said here i pretty much said to Pawras over the weekend that no matter what you do whatever method you use it will always come down to the quality of your selections. Depending on your strike rate (and that usually kind of boils down to what sort of range of price of selections you back) depends on what sort of percentage of a managed bank you'd stake. Obviously some-one like Ian who's backing higher numbers of overpriced horses will have to operate to a lower percentage of his tank than someone like Slim whos basically waiting for very strong bets at usually lower odds. Ians average price of selection might be 16s whereas Slims might be 9/2.

Slims point of keeping it simple with 1 2 or 3pts thats fair enough advice. But there is an argument for where he says "3pts when its already won" that perhaps those should be the only bets we should make. You could make the argument that unless you think it's an absolute good thing when why are you backing it in the first place. You might not have many bets a month or a year but it is what it is.

I've seen multiple threads on staking down the years but most of them have been started by people who don't know what kind of punter they are. That's the sort of question that needs asking before staking plans.

Am I someone who does this as a hobby ?

Or am I here to make money ?

If you are doing if as a hobby then why the f%*& are you worrying about a betting bank ? And how you should stake.

Here's how I view it from the minute you said you had a savings account your someone whos doing this as a hobby so imo pay your bills save what you want and if there's a bit left out of your wages after you've paid everything that needs doing then have at it! If you win then you have 2 choices either spunk the dough having a good time or throw a chunk in your savings. Those are the only two options. You might think there's an option 3...but there's not, well not for you anyway. I already know this because you have a savings account. See you might say option 3 I want to build my bank over time and make money from gambling. This sort of talk is bollocks from anybody who has a savings account. People might think thats a harsh statement but its gonna save you a lot of time trying to be something you know deep down you know you're not.

You get what 4% maybe upto 8% saving and investing in any manner that doesnt involve crazy risk. If you actually believed you could make money gambling then everything in your savings account would be in play, the very fact that you wont do that tells you what camp you're in. Statements like what if a lose everything should only go further to set that in stone. That money is in a savings account because deep down you know its better off there deep down you don't belive its going to make more in betting accounts. If you dont believe it, or believe in yourself or just simply know you've got what it takes then how do you expect to win ? So take whatever betting bank you have left and shove that in the savings or go have a good time on it. Then on payday leave yourself a bit to have a bet with and go again.

 

[reet hard]

For me,it's a simple case of knowing your ability, and your limitations,and staking by instinct.

 

[luckyme]

For me, it's a simple case of knowing your ability, and your limitations,and staking by instinct.

Sums me up perfect.

 

[walsworth]

I take no notice of anybody else and just stake 5% of bank, regardless of price.
The majority of my bets are between 3/1 and 7/1 in handicaps of 8 to 12 runners.