Supreme Novice Hurdle

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With Hurricane Fly out of the race all the money this week has been for last Sunday's winner Go Native. As short as 9/1 in places now after plenty of support.

Cannot have him myself, Hurricane Fly brushed him aside far too easily for him to be considered for this and I am not sure his run at Naas is all that strong.

Red Moloney has been impressive and has plenty of top class form on the flat but I would like to have seen him tested a bit more and he is plenty short enough with so much to prove.

I liked Ainama on his debut but he has disappointed since.

Torphichen has been another well supported this week and while I dont fancy him at the same time I would not be surprised if he did pop up.

That leaves us with the Mullins pair, Cousin Vinny and Kempes both of which I find hard to split. Yard has so many talented novices this season and both look potential top notchers. Cousin Vinny can be questioned regarding his jumping and the inexperience of his rider. But he travelled like a very classy horse the last day before his slip up and we know he finds plenty off the bridle. Kempes is an interesting one too, did well to win at Leopardstown on his debut after some iffy jumping. Looked much more the finished article at Navan (on Talking Horses day) when apparently not fancied due to the ground. I could see Ruby ride him and be very well backed on the day.

Any strong fancies?
 
Kempes needs soft ground and will have to improve a lot on shown form to be placed in the Supreme
 
sunybay said:
Kempes needs soft ground and will have to improve a lot on shown form to be placed in the Supreme
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He was unfancied at Navan due to the fact the ground was too soft. Has to improve alot, but he was useful on the flat and is open to plenty of improvement in an open renewal.
 
I saw a turn of foot from Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown that I've not seen from any horse in the past 15 years (including Istabraq and Bincoular), he quickened right away from them like they weren't even there. IMO it's not entirely impossible that Go Native in his own right could be a G1 performer. I think 14's or so for the Supreme is worth a few quid for sure.

Not a fancy as such Gal but definitely a good bet at the price (not the 9's)/
 
Can't have Go Native at all, possibly won't get up the hill either, they went no pace the last day really.

It's Cousin Vinny for me; with Torpichen the danger while Red Moloney probably won't get the good ground he needs. I'm actually not sure if there's much strength in depth in the race. If it wasn't for the jockey factor - which still has to be a concern - I'd be absolutely steaming into CV at current prices.
 
Cousin Vinny

as a place bet, bad bet for me if the trainers son is riding



Kempes

different jumper in softer ground.



Red Moloney, impossible to rate for me yet
 
I'm with Bobby on this one, he'll fly up the hill past the cluster that just went far too fast. I would take Cousin Vinny to beat Hurricane Fly if they met again. The last time they met Vinny didn't look fit, neither did he look off, his jockey done as little as possible to let Hurricane Fly get first run on him.
 
Michael Flips would be the horse that has advertised his credentials most convincingly to me of date having run the novice race at Kempton in a time 1.6 secs faster than Harchibald in the Xmas Hurdle on ground which was good to firm (my variance figure not the clerks declaration - although kempton does throw up some strange ones to do with race distances). There's a reasonably strong likelihood however that he did this on ground similar to that which he'll face on the Tuesday.

The factor I always think is helpful to have on your side in a race like the Supreme is a horse that's proven its stamina at minimum trip. I realise that might sound silly at face value, but the way the top 2 mile races tend to be run at Cheltenham brings stamina into play. If I were looking for an atheletics equivilant it would be the 400 metres. There's plenty of horses that might look visually impressive sprinting away off a moderate pace, but in reality the races they've been winning using these tactics will normally bear little resemblence to how they'll be required to run at Cheltenham, and as such there's usually no shortage of short priced horses going into the unknown and suddenly being asked to go lickety spit from the tapes and extend themselves for 2 miles instead of 2 furlongs.

That's not say that horses that haven't hitherto advertised their ability to sustain this kind of pace don't suddenly do so, and prove themselves capable etc it's just that in drawing up a short-list based around faster times, you're at least likely to be siding with those who've demonstrated an ability to do so already, rather than taking a chance on something that might.

You do of course get the odd slower run renewal, where a jog and sprint merchant can prevail, Ebaziyan, Noland and Saulsilto Bay would be my three slowest winners of recent years and none of them them hardly ripped up trees subsequently, although you might point out of course that their runners up who wouldn't have had the race run to suit, went onto better things when they were given the chance to extend themselves in a sustained gallop.

Hurricane Fly was a classic candidate to go down the same route as Sweet Wake before him, until that is Grasshopper pointed out his Punchestown win in May which brought him out at 102.35 which would put him right in the mix and seemingly cover both bases in terms of a fast and slow win under his belt. Michael Flips isn't necessarily the fastest I've recorded on 100.60, that dubious distinction belongs to Medermit on a suspiciously rougish looking 107.15 at Ascot, on ground riding on the easy side of good, but I'm seriously worried about the reliability of this rating, and reckon its one of those rogues you occasionally encounter, where only one race on a card was run at a true pace, and the merit of it gets artifically inflated thus.
 
sunybay said:
Kempes

different jumper in softer ground.
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You're basing that on two runs though. Have you taken into consideration that the Leopardstown race was his first run over hurdles since February (and only his second overall)? His flat form proves conclusively that good ground is absolutely no problem.

Don't really rate the form of Go Native's Naas win to be honest. Neither Roberto Goldback nor Kimberlite King are 2m horses and he'll have to step up an awful lot to figure.
 
Torphichen e/w will be a decent bet for me. I expect Cousin Vinny to be short, possibly under 2/1.
 
Would just add Michael Flips has won a PTP over 3m which suggests he will be effective at a stiffer track like Cheltenham.
 
Regarding Red Moloney. Did Prendergast not say that he didn't like travelling. Fine at The Curragh but did not perform anywhere else. Secondly, Is it still possible that CV will go for the Ballymore given that the slower pace will help his jumping leaving Kempes for the Supreme
 
Wall E said:
Regarding Red Moloney. Did Prendergast not say that he didn't like travelling. Fine at The Curragh but did not perform anywhere else. Secondly, Is it still possible that CV will go for the Ballymore given that the slower pace will help his jumping leaving Kempes for the Supreme
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I'm expecting CV to go for the Supreme. Took the remaining 100/30 with Hills this morning while it's still there. Hills are also going 'no runner, no bet' on this race, if you need the insurance.
 
Wall E said:
Regarding Red Moloney. Did Prendergast not say that he didn't like travelling. Fine at The Curragh but did not perform anywhere else.
Click to expand...

Interestingly enough, Wall E, I do remember Prendergast saying something along those lines actually. Thanks for reminding me!

I can't see any significant angle on Cousin Vinny, positive or negative, at 10/3 to be honest. Whilst he is undoubtedly a seriously talented horse, it is not impossible to pick holes in his form over hurdles (in that it arguably doesn't entitle him to be a 10/3 shot in this, rather than through any fault of his own). Jumping remains a bit of a worry as well.

Torphichen's Sandown run has stood up pretty well with Trenchant, beaten comprehensively off level weights at Sandown, winning at Kempton subsequently (admittedly with the weights in his favour). 8lbs looks a generous allowance IMO, and he's worth taking on the Mullins hotpot with.
 
I've backed both Cousin Vinny and Torphichen. Coupled, it seems like a better 6/4 shot than Binocular and I've backed him at 6/4.
 
I think Cousin Vinny (without the NRNB concession) must currently be the worst value bet for Cheltenham. Mullins has stated he is still not preferring one race over the other. With the ground far from soft, this indicates the possibility Mikael de Haguenet won't run. This leaves Mullins with the option of having one in the Supreme (Kempes) and one in the Ballymore, or two in the same. I also think he's much, much more suited to the 2m5 race, and am very confused as to why people are backing him now for the Supreme.

Even if you make him a 4/6 shot to run in the supreme, you would need 5/1 or bigger to make this a worthwhile bet (based on my thinking he will be 9/4 or so once confirmed.
 
To be honest I wasn't aware there was a doubt over his participation in the Supreme. If there is, I can't disagree with what you've said.
 
This is from Mullins Q&A on Sporting Life:

You've a strong novice hurdling team even without Hurricane Fly. How's Cousin Vinny since he unseated at Leopardstown?

WM: I'm very happy with him. He did a nice bit of work on Saturday and he might do another bit before he goes to England. So all is well.

You've said you're not making a decision on whether he goes in the Supreme Novices' or the Ballymore Properties until nearer the time, but are you leaning towards one or the other at this moment?

WM: No, I'm just keeping an eye on the horse, keeping an eye on what's running where and we'll make a decision later on. I'll keep an eye on the ground too, although I don't think that'll be a major issue. We'll just keep an open mind.

Wherever he goes his win in the Champion Bumper last year shows he likes Cheltenham...

WM: He does, he likes the track. He's a course winner and it's good to go there knowing you're able to handle the place.

Do you think he needs to brush up on his jumping to be a major player?

WM: I imagine most novices' will make a mistake of some description during the race and he's jumped very well in most of his races. The race before he was running in a gale force storm and he paddled over the last but other than that he's been jumping quite well.
 
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