Supreme Novice Hurdle

3/1 Supreme
13.5/1 Ballymore

Based on that, Supreme looks much the more likely.

I'm naively taking Mullins at his word for now :)
 
I think your probably right to do so, there was a fair old gamble on Fivefourthree for the Supreme around this time last year, and a couple of days later he switched him. I'll lay him off for a small loss if the situation hasn't changed when I get home this evening.
 
The 100/30 with a run for the Supreme at Hills yesterday has gone now.

(Paddy Power no runner, no bet all races from today.)
 
I also think he's much, much more suited to the 2m5 race, and am very confused as to why people are backing him now for the Supreme.
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Why do you think he's more suited to the longer race, Hamm?

The argument in favour of his running in the Supreme is that he had speed to win the two highest class bumpers around. We know he gets a bit further than 2m, which is also a plus with the Supreme in mind.

I think he would cope with the Ballymore trip, but that's not the same thing as saying he would be better suited to it.
 
I don't think he's the quickest hurdler I've seen, and think you are always likely to find one or two faster (especially the flat breds) who are unexposed in the Supreme. The Ballymore I usually find easier to read, and think there is less scope for being outspeeded as stamina comes more into play. I realise this is only an opinion though and not something I can back up.

I think he's potentially a great horse, and I think he'd have a much better chance in the Ballymore if the ground is good to soft or better. Saying that, I think he'd be up against it in Diamond Harry.

The Supreme though is filled with many potentially very good horses who may be faster, and better hurdlers.
 
Hamm said:
I don't think he's the quickest hurdler I've seen, and think you are always likely to find one or two faster (especially the flat breds) who are unexposed in the Supreme. The Ballymore I usually find easier to read, and think there is less scope for being outspeeded as stamina comes more into play. I realise this is only an opinion though and not something I can back up.

I think he's potentially a great horse, and I think he'd have a much better chance in the Ballymore if the ground is good to soft or better. Saying that, I think he'd be up against it in Diamond Harry.

The Supreme though is filled with many potentially very good horses who may be faster, and better hurdlers.
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His jumping fragilities have been over played in my opinion and the better ground and faster gallop will help that department.

His biggest asset is that he finds plenty off the bridle so everything he has done on the bridle this season should have that in mind. I cannot believe some people actually think Pandorama had a chance against him the last day given the turn of foot and guts CV has shown in the past.
 
Just in case I wasn't clear ... I don't think he has jumping frailties at all, just the Ballymore may suit his jumping rythym better.

And, I certainly wasn't one of those who thought he wouldn't beat, and beat well, Pandorama :)
 
Grasshopper said:
Question: is there absolutely no way that Mikael will run here?
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Exactly my question Grassy. Ground seems reasonably OK but Mullinns did seem to indicate earlier that Punches may be the target even not even the Ballymore. Significant he is not in the betting anywhere for the Supreme.
 
Mikael D'Haguenet's another exciting novice...

WM: He seems to have a lot of ability and I'd probably like to see a bit of rain for him to show his best but I'm happy enough he's gone the right way all season for me.

He's excelled in softer ground, but he's shown a bit of speed as well hasn't he?

WM: Over a trip he's got plenty of speed and he's a lot more speed than we thought he had.


(later that day)

Last question Willie, which horse are you most looking forward to seeing run at the Festival next week?

WM: Quevega, Cooldine, Cousin Vinny and Mikael D'Haguenet are the four! I'm also looking forward to seeing which horse does best in the Bumper as they are always a good pointer for next season, to see where your best novice hurdlers or novice chasers are going to come from.

From the same interview as Hamm quoted above. OK, he's looking forward to MD'H running and he is speedy enough at a trip, so he goes for the Ballymore. He's implying the four mentioned are his best winning chances so presumeably two of them aren't in the same race so CV is running in the Supreme and I haven't wasted my money.

Case closed.
 
There is a hint in the Times this morning that Ruby might ride CV after all - surely not a jocking off of Willie's own son at this late stage ?
 
Grasshopper said:
Question: is there absolutely no way that Mikael will run here?
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From RP:

Doubts have surrounded Mikael D'Haguenet's participation at Cheltenham due to his liking for soft ground, but the five-year-old is likely to travel in a bid to stretch his winning run to five.
"I am praying for a bit more rain, but he is certainly in the picture," said Mullins. "He is in the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett, and he is still in the Supreme as you never know what is going to happen.
"If there was a lot of rain he could switch to that race as he has a lot of speed."
 
Copper Bleu looks too big at 25's. Ran a decent race at Doncaster giving 17lbs to a potentially exciting prospect in Master of Arts, particularly given the steady pace would have been against him.

I have a feeling a fast-run 2m might just be his bag.
 
5 day stage...

Aachen 5.g
Ainama (IRE) 5.g
Alarazi (IRE) 5.g
American Trilogy (IRE) 5.g
Bee Sting 5.g
China Rock (IRE) 6.g
Cockney Trucker (IRE) 7.g
Copper Bleu (IRE) 7.g
Cousin Vinny (IRE) 6.g
Gloucester 6.g
Golan Way 5.g
Go Native (IRE) 6.g
Intensifier (IRE) 5.g
Kangaroo Court (IRE) 5.g
Kempes (IRE) 6.g
Leamington Lad (IRE) 6.g
Leo's Lucky Star (USA) 7.g
Medermit (FR) 5.g
Micheal Flips (IRE) 5.g
Mikael d'Haguenet (FR) 5.g
Mr Thriller (FR) 4.g
Persian Storm (GER) 5.g
Red Moloney (USA) 5.g
Ruthenoise (FR) 4.f
Seeking The Buck (USA) 5.g
Shamari (FR) 5.g
Shoreacres (IRE) 6.g
Somersby (IRE) 5.g
Torphichen 4.g
Trenchant 4.g
 
RP report that Cousin Vinny has been very well backed for the Supreme this afternoon. As short as 2/1 with Corals.
 
Cousin Vinny, even if you think him the most likely winner, is shocking value at 2/1 or less, and needs to be well left alone at those prices. So many horses completely unexposed, and it's impossible to be sure one will improve past the others, which is what you'd want to be at 7/4 or 2/1.

I'd be happy to see him 7/4, which should ensure some nice prices for a lot of other horses, such as Torphichen, Michael Flips, Red Maloney and Copper Bleu, who all have a chance, and will likely be overpriced due to the fact Irish punters will want to back one of their own.

Luke - are you still confident of place laying Cousin Vinny?
 
Hamm said:
I'd be happy to see him 7/4, which should ensure some nice prices for a lot of other horses, such as Torphichen, Michael Flips, Red Maloney and Copper Bleu, who all have a chance, and will likely be overpriced due to the fact Irish punters will want to back one of their own.
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Its arguable that Cousin Vinny is just as unexposed as any of those but still achieved more. Whats more from his bumper days you know he is going to come up the hill and finish his race off well...which can not be said about some of those.

If Ruby was riding him you wouldn't even get 7/4. Bar accidents I am struggling to see him get beat.
 
I'm not disagreeing with you when you say he'll come up the hill well and so on.

However, my point is there are many unexposed horses who we don't know how good they are. The Supreme Novices always has a percentage of guessing in it. Cousin Vinny doesn't have hurdling form which entitles him to be 7/4.

If the ground came up good to soft or faster(unlikely), I would fancy several ex flat horses (particularly Red Maloney) to outspeed him at the end.

You then have impressive winners such as Micheal Flips, horses who have superior form (especially through Trenchant) and could be anything (Torphichen), then Copper Bleu would come close based on his run behind Master of the arts, Ainama if returning to previous form and then there's Kempes and Go Native (I don't think he has much chance personally).

I'd like a 7/4 chance to be near bombproof (at the Cheltenham festival), and for me Cousin Vinny has negatives surrounding his jumping (at pace), his jockey and the fact there are so many unexposed horses in behind.

I'm surprised you think no other horses can win! :)
 
Hamm said:
I'm not disagreeing with you when you say he'll come up the hill well and so on.

However, my point is there are many unexposed horses who we don't know how good they are. The Supreme Novices always has a percentage of guessing in it. Cousin Vinny doesn't have hurdling form which entitles him to be 7/4.

If the ground came up good to soft or faster(unlikely), I would fancy several ex flat horses (particularly Red Maloney) to outspeed him at the end.

You then have impressive winners such as Micheal Flips, horses who have superior form (especially through Trenchant) and could be anything (Torphichen), then Copper Bleu would come close based on his run behind Master of the arts, Ainama if returning to previous form and then there's Kempes and Go Native (I don't think he has much chance personally).

I'd like a 7/4 chance to be near bombproof (at the Cheltenham festival), and for me Cousin Vinny has negatives surrounding his jumping (at pace), his jockey and the fact there are so many unexposed horses in behind.

I'm surprised you think no other horses can win! :)
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Red Moloney has looked pacey against donkeys up the north. On the flat he was racing up to 1m6f (placed in the Leger). Horses like that generally are stayers over hurdles and need further than 2 miles.

I think the idea that Cousin Vinny is not fast enough for two miles and could be outpaced was and is exagerated when people were looking for reasons to avoid the clash between CV and Hurricane Fly with HF looking the more obvious to go over the shorter trip.

Stiff two miles at Cheltenham and a strongly run race will completely negate any "pace" issues. As for his jumping again I think its over blown but the same questions marks surely arise for the likes of Red Moloney, Torphichen etc who have yet to jump a hurdle off the bridle.

When we talk about having things to prove, Torphichen has never raced against anything other than a 4 year old...and modest ones at that and he is only 5/1. Micheal Flips is indeed interesting, but he is extremely stoutly bred (won a 3 mile point to point) and has yet to race anything much of note either.

Either way I don't think Cousin Vinny is terrible value (nor indeed is he particularly great value) but for me he has the least to prove, open to loads of improvement and is the most solid horse in the race. He is open to loads of improvement and I think it is virtually certain he will find plenty, others are also open to improvement but most of them won't acutally find it. It is not the strongest Supreme Novices Hurdles.
 
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