Supreme Novice Hurdle

Curious - what form do you think CV has this year which compares favourably with the other horses which entitles him to be 7/4 or 2/1?
 
It might sound like gobbledy gook Aiden but what do you mean by "not being fast enough"? and then;

"Stiff two miles at Cheltenham and a strongly run race will completely negate any "pace" issues".

I think the relationship between what you might call a fast horse and a quick horse is complicated at 2 miles. Some horses seem to be considered as being fast but what people are actually describing in a lot of cases is acceleration (usually off a slow pace). This is a very different attribute to being fast in terms of a race pace. The Supreme is normally run at a good clip, (as indeed most 2 mile contests at the festival are) this brings stamina into play, as one needs to sustain that pace. It's the horses that have shown pace who are most suited by this, where as those that have shown speed through acceleration are going into unknown territory and many get found wanting. Red Moloney would be a classic candidate to be found out thus.

That's not say he can't run and win a race like this, it's just that so far to date he hasn't advertised his ability to do so, and it can come as a shock to the animal when he's suddenly being asked to run a race in a way that has hitherto been alien to him.

Far from negating any pace issues, a strongly run race plays into the hands of those horses who have demonstrated an ability to go with the pace
 
Warbler said:
Far from negating any pace issues, a strongly run race plays into the hands of those horses who have demonstrated an ability to go with the pace
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Name me a horse in the Supreme that has demonstrated this more than Cousin Vinny sitting handy over course and distance in last seasons bumper or when he was running away turn in on good ground in the Irish version?

Horse was placed on his debut in Grade 1 company against a future Grade 1 winner and was cantering his way to a Grade 1 victory last time out before an unlucky slip up. Has he something to prove? Of course he has, what novice does not at this stage of his career....but equally so do all those horses that are "open to improvement" and "could be anything". He is currently 2/1 or 5/2 (not a 1/2 or 2/5 shot) ahead of a 4 year old who is 5/1 despite never racing outside his age bracket. Binocular as a 4 year old couldn't win a Supreme that is how tough it is.
 
Hamm said:
I'm not disagreeing with you when you say he'll come up the hill well and so on.

However, my point is there are many unexposed horses who we don't know how good they are. The Supreme Novices always has a percentage of guessing in it. Cousin Vinny doesn't have hurdling form which entitles him to be 7/4.

If the ground came up good to soft or faster(unlikely), I would fancy several ex flat horses (particularly Red Maloney) to outspeed him at the end.

You then have impressive winners such as Micheal Flips, horses who have superior form (especially through Trenchant) and could be anything (Torphichen), then Copper Bleu would come close based on his run behind Master of the arts, Ainama if returning to previous form and then there's Kempes and Go Native (I don't think he has much chance personally).

I'd like a 7/4 chance to be near bombproof (at the Cheltenham festival), and for me Cousin Vinny has negatives surrounding his jumping (at pace), his jockey and the fact there are so many unexposed horses in behind.

I'm surprised you think no other horses can win! :)
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You're right Hamm this race is often won by an unexposed type, perhaps with just a couple of outings over timber who shows dramatic improvement in this.

On all known form I'm with CV... it's the unknown that CV and the rest of us have to fear.
 
Does anyone think that with Patrick Mullins in the Plate, his lack of experience might be costly in a championship race at a breakneck speed? I would hope he won't get boxed in and be told to keep wide and out of trouble. The obvious problem there would be that he'll be conceding a lot of ground. Should there be one good enough to put it up to CV, he could be chasing a losing battle coming up to the last.
 
2/1 is an absurd price, imo.

There is no standout candidate in the absence of Hurricane Fly, and whilst CV may have the best form going into the race (unproven, for me, but I can see why others could interpret that way), it is not sufficiently superior to justify taking 33% out of the book.

They should be betting 5/1 the field.
 
No, he's not unexposed, and I never said he was.

My point is there are many equally (or more) unexposed, and he doesn't have the form over hurdles which entitles him to be 2/1 or 7/4.

If someone want to bet on hype and bumper form, then fine. But, he simply doesn't have the hurdles form which entitles him to be that price.

That's my point, and whilst he may well win, and may even be the likeliest winner, he's rank poor value, and imvho, those betting on him are trying to pick a winner (now), rather than pick a horse whose price represents his chance, or even better, value.

I like him as a horse, but would need 4/1 to bet on him. 7/2 is near his right price.
 
Also, to add ... i like races at Cheltenham with betting like this - massively underpriced favourite, and you generally will have at least 2/3 horses who are subsequently overpriced.
 
Hamm said:
Also, to add ... i like races at Cheltenham with betting like this - massively underpriced favourite, and you generally will have at least 2/3 horses who are subsequently overpriced.
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You named...Red Monloney (10/1), Michael Flips (10/1), Torphichen (5/1), Copper Bleu (16/1), Ainama (12/1), Kempes (10/1) and Go Native (10/1).

Which one of these are over priced based on the same criteria you are applying to Cousin Vinny? What piece of form entitles a 4 year old Torphichen to be 5/1 for the Supreme? Or Ainama (beaten last time and often found little off the bridle on the flat) at 12/1....Red Moloney at 10s - you discount Cousin Vinnys bumper form so presumably you do the same with Red Moloney's flat form. If so...10/1 for winning some egg and spoon races up the North?
 
Hamm said:
Also, to add ... i like races at Cheltenham with betting like this - massively underpriced favourite, and you generally will have at least 2/3 horses who are subsequently overpriced.
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The problem is in finding them, as previous form has a lot less to do with the outcome than in most other races at the Festival.

I'm on CV at 4/1 and 7/2 for modest amounts, but am far from confident.
 
Their form (Torphichen, Micheal Flips, Copper Bleu) is not much different to CV's. Ainama aside, who was disappointing the last day.

However, i think Torphichen has the best form, his defeat of Trenchant is probably the best piece of form.

Cousin Vinny has only himself won two egg and spoon races.

If we are to include speed into the equation, I'd rather Red Maloney's flat speed than Cousin Vinny's bumper form (personal preference).

All I am saying is he is massively underpriced, and have asked for reasons why he should be the price he is but have received none.
 
SteveM said:
The problem is in finding them, as previous form has a lot less to do with the outcome than in most other races at the Festival.

I'm on CV at 4/1 and 7/2 for modest amounts, but am far from confident.
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Agree. Currently, I'm looking at Micheal Flips, Red Maloney, and Copper Bleu.
 
Hamm said:
Their form (Torphichen, Micheal Flips, Copper Bleu) is not much different to CV's. Ainama aside, who was disappointing the last day.

However, i think Torphichen has the best form, his defeat of Trenchant is probably the best piece of form.

Cousin Vinny has only himself won two egg and spoon races.

If we are to include speed into the equation, I'd rather Red Maloney's flat speed than Cousin Vinny's bumper form (personal preference).

All I am saying is he is massively underpriced, and have asked for reasons why he should be the price he is but have received none.
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Yes I have....third first time out in Grade 1 company...on his way to winning a Grade 1 last time but for a slip up. Defeated the smart Realt Dubh (giving him weight) comfortably in unsuitable ground at Naas.

Cousin Vinny (who incidentally is 11/4 in places still not the 1/2 some of ye seem to think he is) is rated 154 by RPR higher than all the horses you have named - Red Moloney 142, Torphichen 131, Micheal Flips 147 etc.

I personally would rather bumper form (particularly over the course) than Red Moloney's flat form which is mainly over staying distances in soft ground.
 
Hamm said:
Agree. Currently, I'm looking at Micheal Flips, Red Maloney, and Copper Bleu.
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These sound possible. I've been a bit taken aback by the number of good judges that are looking at Michael Flips, seems the faces want to be on. Not sure I really get why though.
 
Galileo,

I love debating with you when you have the apples of Mullins' (or O'Brien's) eye on your side :)
 
cousin vinnys edition of the chelt bumper was not the strongest ever run by any means

now has to run and jump at speed in a large field mullins may be missing hurricane fly

bumper horses normally do better in the ballymore than the supreme especially if the ground isnt to testing and when the filed is made up with lots of ex flat horses and flat breds

wouldnt be a shock if kempes turns out the best of the mullins horses

red moloney will act on the ground admitidly this is a far stronger race than he has so far competed in

Michael flips who won in a better time than harchibald at kempton is the one i find interesting
 
Paddy Power are refunding win and e/w singles on the race if Cousin Vinny wins.... here (although I believe they'll let the bets on CV stand...)
 
I like Micheal Flips a lot and have been very taken with him so far. What has put me off in the past is that he is trained By Andy Turnell (which I'm learning to just about live with now) although if Mark Grant takes the ride I really cannot bring myself to back him I'm sure.
 
Heavy rain last night (though track only took 1mm apparently), and heavy rain predicted for Tuesday too. I think we could be looking at genuine Soft ground to start the meeting.

There has been a fair chunk of cash for Mikael for the Supreme over the last 24 hours, and he is now 28 to Lay and 40 to Back (there was nothing on the pink side prior to yesterday evening).
 
Most likely not, Gal. I'm more keeping an eye on it with a view to trading out at some point, if the price continues to drop.
 
I've been wondering about this. M DH has a most pronounced round action and if it was my decision I would think seriously about running him on the Tuesday when the going would suit him best.

I've traded out of Cousin Vinny after watching his last three races. He has loads of speed, I don't think there's any issue there, but in every race he has made an mess of the last hurdle. He's still pretty much a novice in the jumping department and so is his rider.

Surely Mullins will not run all his novices in the Supreme though?
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I imagine Cousin Vinny would stand a good chance of getting the Ballymore trip. As someone has already said, good bumper horses often need a bit further over obstacles and the slightly reduced tempo might help his jumping. Given the weather forecast I would consider switching them.
 
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