Supreme Novices Hurdle 10th March 2015

Paddy giving losing stakes back as a free bet if Douvan wins so do Qewy with them. Someone is bound to offer 9/4 or 5/2 Douvan on the Tuesday morning. Keep your saver for then. Might be worth backing the winning distance.
 
archie said:
Paddy giving losing stakes back as a free bet if Douvan wins so do Qewy with them. Someone is bound to offer 9/4 or 5/2 Douvan on the Tuesday morning. Keep your saver for then. Might be worth backing the winning distance.
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Will Hill will give you a free bet no matter what beats you. £25 max though. The PP offer is much safer in the Arkle where the fav appears a lot stronger.
 
archie said:
Paddy giving losing stakes back as a free bet if Douvan wins so do Qewy with them. Someone is bound to offer 9/4 or 5/2 Douvan on the Tuesday morning. Keep your saver for then. Might be worth backing the winning distance.
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Thanks Archie but I don't bet with bookmakers direct....we have a group here and we all bet through the same account/s
 
I hope you are right about Douvan Archie but I was talking to my friend (Ex Ladbrokes) yesterday and he reckons
the bookies will try and make sure he goes off short because if he wins they could be in big trouble with multiples

I know I'll be having 4 horse and five horse accies on all of Mullins's and I'm sure thousands of others will to.

Probably a stupid bet.....as Ruby says if you look at daily results the chances of 4 favs winning at any meeting are only about 5%
 
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Tanlic said:
I know I'll be having 4 horse and five horse accies on all of Mullins's and I'm sure thousands of others will to.
Probably a stupid bet.....as Ruby says if you look at daily results the chances of 4 favs winning at any meeting are only about 5%
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The Cheltenham festival isn’t a good comparison to your average daily result, the cream of the cream can rise too, in the old days when there were 18 races over three days, on two occasions all 18 favourites won!
I know competition is so much fiercer now but still 25% of all the favourites that have run since 2002 have won, that’s 58 from 254 to be exact, resulting in a miniscule loss of £20 to a £1 level stake if you compare it to the immense amount of pleasure gleaned.
Take a closer look and it may or may not surprise you to learn that in the same time period, 48% of all the favourites with a starting price of between Evens and 2/1 won, yielding a 21% percent profit.
 
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Maxbet said:
in the old days when there were 18 races over three days, on two occasions all 18 favourites won!
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Jeez, when the fcuk was that ? I've been following it for the past 30 years and don't remember it even coming close - more's the pity.

How many smaller bookies would go under nowadays I wonder should it happen again.
 
Throughout the 1990s the Festival was pretty much a favourites graveyard (as I recall but happy to be proved wrong as memory's not what it used to be at my age [emoji15]) but I think several won in 2003 and we've fairly regularly seen winning jollies since then


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This is the favs record over the last 13 years (courtesy of gaulstats https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home)
I've always thought to avoid odds-on at the festival, but clearly hasn't been the case over the last few years...

[TABLE="width: 671"]
<colgroup><col><col span="13"></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD] '02[/TD]
[TD] '03[/TD]
[TD] '04[/TD]
[TD] '05[/TD]
[TD] '06[/TD]
[TD] '07[/TD]
[TD] '08[/TD]
[TD] '09[/TD]
[TD]'10[/TD]
[TD] '11[/TD]
[TD] '12[/TD]
[TD] '13[/TD]
[TD] '14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Races[/TD]
[TD] 20[/TD]
[TD] 20[/TD]
[TD] 20[/TD]
[TD] 24[/TD]
[TD] 24[/TD]
[TD] 24[/TD]
[TD] 25[/TD]
[TD] 26[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD] 27[/TD]
[TD] 27[/TD]
[TD] 27[/TD]
[TD] 27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]No of winning Favourites[/TD]
[TD] 5[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD] 5[/TD]
[TD] 5[/TD]
[TD] 7[/TD]
[TD] 6[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD] 6[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[TD] 8[/TD]
[TD] 9[/TD]
[TD] 9[/TD]
[TD] 6.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Favourites 3/1 and under (Winners)[/TD]
[TD]10 (4)[/TD]
[TD]12 (8)[/TD]
[TD]9 (1)[/TD]
[TD] 6 (1)[/TD]
[TD] 7 (2)[/TD]
[TD]14 (4)[/TD]
[TD]10 (1)[/TD]
[TD]13 (5)[/TD]
[TD]11 (2)[/TD]
[TD]12 (4)[/TD]
[TD]12 (4)[/TD]
[TD]18 (9)[/TD]
[TD]10 (4)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Odds On favourites (Winners)[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] 3(1)[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] 1[/TD]
[TD]3(1)[/TD]
[TD] 4(1)[/TD]
[TD] 2(2)[/TD]
[TD] 5(3)[/TD]
[TD] 3(3)[/TD]
[TD] 1(1)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
SkyBet have now joined Will Hill in offering money back as a free bet is your selection loses in the Supreme, £25 max. Some complain that it's only as a free bet but at the start of a 4 day festival that will surely get used again at some point.
 
The way I look at it and I am talking generally here, is there's a huge difference between a Kauto Star fav and a eg Champagne Fever fav.

Or as they say in Italy "Statsa doana meen ashitsa"
 
Isn't Sizing John completely overpriced at 33/1? I'm trying to work out what I'm missing. There's probably not much chance he overturns form with Douvan but if the latter is the machine he's made out to be then Sizing John form is nice. He's a grade 1 winner just seems odd he's so big.
 
SP Only said:
Isn't Sizing John completely overpriced at 33/1? I'm trying to work out what I'm missing. There's probably not much chance he overturns form with Douvan but if the latter is the machine he's made out to be then Sizing John form is nice. He's a grade 1 winner just seems odd he's so big.
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johnny burke said he didn't feel right that day at gowran. he's one i'm definitely looking at as an e/w proposition.
 
Digger, as ever, I'm grateful to you for keeping me wide on the Web acronyms. You truly are a child of The Matrix.

FWIW, Timeform give out two Large P's for the Supreme; one to Douvan and one to Qewy. The latter, however, is rated over a stone lower than the former (155P to 170P). Top-rated is Serge on 171p.

This could potentially be a decent renewal.
 
Willie Mullins has gone from "The nicest horse we've ever sent to Cheltenham" to "I don't know how good he is we'll find out on Tusday":blink:
 
Grasshopper said:
Digger, as ever, I'm grateful to you for keeping me wide on the Web acronyms. You truly are a child of The Matrix.

FWIW, Timeform give out two Large P's for the Supreme; one to Douvan and one to Qewy. The latter, however, is rated over a stone lower than the former (155P to 170P). Top-rated is Serge on 171p.

This could potentially be a decent renewal.
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Which would you make favourite?
 
Am I Backing or Laying?

FWIW, I make Douvan favourite. I'd be a layer at 6/4, but a backer at 9/4 i.e. a coward. :lol:
 
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