Supreme Novices Hurdle 15 March 2022

Mullins imo is possibly going to run both his in the Supreme and kilcruit...he has enough amo in the Ballymore to win it without weakening his chances in this much heralded Supreme a race he really wants to win. Also you could expect a massive gamble on Jonbon on the day at least that's what I am being told by social media friends who say Nicky is being diplomatic when he says he doesnt know which of his is best....the man has been doing this way too long for that to be believed...persobally I still don't have a clue but Jonbon does look like he could be every bit as good as Douvan and if he is this race could be over before it gets started.
 
Last edited:
Taken from the Mullins stable RP Festival sable tour, Dysart Dynamo doesn’t strike me as one he’ll up in trip.

Dysart Dynamo
Supreme Novices' Hurdle, 11-4/Ballymore, 9-4

He was very free the last day in front but Paul [Townend] said to me on more than one occasion that when he settles behind a horse he’s fine.



Whereas Sir Gerhard, possibly

Sir Gerhard
Supreme, 3-1/Ballymore, 13-8

He's done everything right – until the last day, when we made the running with him, which I thought didn’t suit him. He was so professional when he was in behind at Leopardstown the first day. He jumped like a handicapper and I have no doubt that whatever race he runs in, getting a lead he will be fine. Even if he doesn't get a lead, I think he will be better as I think he learned a lot the last day. He has plenty of speed, he jumps well and I'm looking forward to getting him over there. He could go in either race – you could toss a coin for whichever race he goes in, because that's the sort of ability I hope he has.


Kilcruit goes Supreme

Kilcruit
Supreme, 9-1

He jumps well enough and everything seems right for him – he handles the track well. You'd think a horse who finished second in the bumper should go for the two-and-a-half-mile race but I’m not sure that it would suit him, so we'll go the two-mile direction this year.
 
Last edited:
I can see it coming Slim you know exactly which horses are entered where.

But I will humour you :whistle:

People have been very quick to dismiss Kilcruit who was out of form when tackling 2m4f back in Decemeber
It wouldn't surprise anyone if he reversed form with what would be the possible 2nd favourite Journey to Me if his recent return to form is anything to go by.

As far as Classic Getaway goes he was having his first run since may when beaten by his stable companion but put that well behind him at Punchestown
If Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo were to come out both the Mullins pair would be there with everychance in what would be come a fairly ordinary Ballymore.

In a normal year I wouldn't for one minute thing mullins wouldn't split his but he's never came a cross such a talented pair as CH and Jonbon and for that reason he may go with all guns blazing and leave the Ballymore to chance.

You may disagree which your entitled to do but Willie definitely doesn't know himself what he will be doing and said openly he wont decide until he sits down with Ruby and Patrick a few days before the race.

Ruby has already said he would run Sir Gerhard in the Supreme while Patrick thinks DD should run in the Supreme...g/l with whatever they decide
 
wilsonl said:
Taken from the Mullins stable RP Festival sable tour, Dysart Dynamo doesn’t strike me as one he’ll up in trip.

Dysart Dynamo
Supreme Novices' Hurdle, 11-4/Ballymore, 9-4

He was very free the last day in front but Paul [Townend] said to me on more than one occasion that when he settles behind a horse he’s fine.



Whereas Sir Gerhard, possibly

Sir Gerhard
Supreme, 3-1/Ballymore, 13-8

He's done everything right – until the last day, when we made the running with him, which I thought didn’t suit him. He was so professional when he was in behind at Leopardstown the first day. He jumped like a handicapper and I have no doubt that whatever race he runs in, getting a lead he will be fine. Even if he doesn't get a lead, I think he will be better as I think he learned a lot the last day. He has plenty of speed, he jumps well and I'm looking forward to getting him over there. He could go in either race – you could toss a coin for whichever race he goes in, because that's the sort of ability I hope he has.


Kilcruit goes Supreme

Kilcruit
Supreme, 9-1

He jumps well enough and everything seems right for him – he handles the track well. You'd think a horse who finished second in the bumper should go for the two-and-a-half-mile race but I’m not sure that it would suit him, so we'll go the two-mile direction this year.
Click to expand...

I find it very hard to believe that he doesn't know where they will run. This is all about appeasing owners. All he is doing is torturing Sir Gerhard Supreme backers.
 
Tanlic said:
I can see it coming Slim you know exactly which horses are entered where.

But I will humour you :whistle:

People have been very quick to dismiss Kilcruit who was out of form when tackling 2m4f back in Decemeber
It wouldn't surprise anyone if he reversed form with what would be the possible 2nd favourite Journey to Me if his recent return to form is anything to go by.

As far as Classic Getaway goes he was having his first run since may when beaten by his stable companion but put that well behind him at Punchestown
If Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo were to come out both the Mullins pair would be there with everychance in what would be come a fairly ordinary Ballymore.

In a normal year I wouldn't for one minute thing mullins wouldn't split his but he's never came a cross such a talented pair as CH and Jonbon and for that reason he may go with all guns blazing and leave the Ballymore to chance.

You may disagree which your entitled to do but Willie definitely doesn't know himself what he will be doing and said openly he wont decide until he sits down with Ruby and Patrick a few days before the race.

Ruby has already said he would run Sir Gerhard in the Supreme while Patrick thinks DD should run in the Supreme...g/l with whatever they decide
Click to expand...

The chances of him not splitting Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard is roughly a gazillion to one.
 
You may well be right but as he hasn't made up his won mind what to do I'll wait and see.

I already lost money it would seem second guessing Mullins as I felt sure he would send Galopin for the longer race in prep for next years Gold Cup
But he has now clearly staed he prefers the 2m4f race.
 
Outsider said:
JONBON 9/2 with hills.seems good value.
Click to expand...

When there are several contenders so close together (apparently!!) it’s one of the few occasions where I think looking for the value bet may be a better option than looking for the winner :). Generally, I’m not a great fan of value - I actually favour worse and worse value as I keep on adding as it shortens and won’t touch drifters with a barge pole.
 
barjon said:
When there are several contenders so close together (apparently!!) it’s one of the few occasions where I think looking for the value bet may be a better option than looking for the winner :). Generally, I’m not a great fan of value - I actually favour worse and worse value as I keep on adding as it shortens and won’t touch drifters with a barge pole.
Click to expand...

This is a topic worthy of discussion in its own right. It's been a while since it was discussed on here, for sure.
 
Mighty Potter looks decent but at 16/1 - and Willie was close to committing him to the race yesterday - El Fabiolo stands out from the remainder.

Firmly in the “could be anything” bracket
 
Last edited:
barjon said:
When there are several contenders so close together (apparently!!) it’s one of the few occasions where I think looking for the value bet may be a better option than looking for the winner :). Generally, I’m not a great fan of value - I actually favour worse and worse value as I keep on adding as it shortens and won’t touch drifters with a barge pole.
Click to expand...

I never back horses just because of what others call value. Its like backing against your own judgement. Jonbon is to me a great price because I think he could be the best horse in the race. Nicky has found the perfect races for him and he has never been out of 2nd gear and lòoks like the faster they go the easier it will become for him to slip into cruise control. He is by far the best jumper of the big four imo and he is the one horse I am certain will be there at the last..my felling is if he can get there as effortly as I think he'll have pkenty energy left in the tank to fly up the hill where others may have used up most of their energy just get into a challeging position and that is where Jonbon has an advantage
 
Last edited:
I’ve been singing Jonbon’s praises for ages on here, tan, and always thought he is a super-star in the making. It’s still a case waiting to be proved, though, since he nor any of the leading group have really been asked the question. Yes, he jumps well, but until they are really asked the question we can only guess at what they will find. I can’t wait to watch it.
 
barjon said:
When there are several contenders so close together (apparently!!) it’s one of the few occasions where I think looking for the value bet may be a better option than looking for the winner :). Generally, I’m not a great fan of value - I actually favour worse and worse value as I keep on adding as it shortens and won’t touch drifters with a barge pole.
Click to expand...

If you win with this technique then you must be a value punter without even trying to be.
 
barjon said:
I’ve been singing Jonbon’s praises for ages on here, tan, and always thought he is a super-star in the making. It’s still a case waiting to be proved, though, since he nor any of the leading group have really been asked the question. Yes, he jumps well, but until they are really asked the question we can only guess at what they will find. I can’t wait to watch it.
Click to expand...

I worry about the UK novices. His 155 rating might be complete fantasy.
 
The horse he beat at Newbury earlier in the season (Good Risk at All) took the p1ss out of a class 2 handicap field at Ascot on Saturday, admittedly on atrocious ground over slightly further and is now rated 137 but Jonbon didn’t come off the bridle when beating him.

I’m pretty sure it can’t be read that literally but 155 is certainly within his range on form and breeding. Is that good enough though ?
 
Last edited:
wilsonl said:
The horse he beat at Newbury earlier in the season (Good Risk at All) took the p1ss out of a class 2 handicap field at Ascot on Saturday, admittedly on atrocious ground over slightly further and is now rated 137 but Jonbon didn’t come off the bridle when beating him.

I’m pretty sure it can’t be read that literally but 155 is certainly within his range on form and breeding. Is that good enough though ?
Click to expand...

No.
 
Back
Top