Supreme Novices Hurdle 15 March 2022

If being honest with oneself Good Risk At All won what turned out to be a dreadful affair. He was getting a stone from the 2nd a 16/1 shot and the 2nd and 3rd went off at 33/1 and 40/1. He looked impressive but so he should have against that lot. I tend to ignore most form lines with Novices and use my eyes to judge them and it's worked pretty well for me in the past. Looking at the four horses I think most would agree Sir Gerhard is an awkward jumper at speed which is a huge disadvantage. There was a bit of the Desert Orchid about Dysart Dynamo who tore off in front then quickened up last time in a race that chaged the views if many about the domination of The Henderson pair. However if you give any good horse an easy lead and nothing takes him on he will for one clock a good time having gone round at his own uninterupted pace. I just wonder if he is as good as he lòoked that day and to me is an unlikely winner. Both CH and Jonbon impressed me more but I am less sure about CH who handled the ground better than the others plus Nico set him alight and had him flat to the boards when their was absolutely no need. It just caused me to have a ltlle niggling doubt about him thats hard to expkain..So it left me with Jonbon who has been doing it so easily and impressively without reallly being asked a serious question. Not for one minute do I believe Nicky Henderson doesnt know which is best and I tend to believe what a friend on Social Media repeated in a pm to me yesterday involving JP and an up and coming gamble on the day. I had to ask myself how come Nicky had no problem saying Spirit Son ws his number one choice over Sprinter or Altior was his number one againt Buvi' but now he has no opinion.. If he had come out and said he thought Jonbon was different class he could be the one heading the market not ch....food for thought:)
 
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Wouldn't write CH off that easily, Fist. it was kinder ground when he turned Might I inside out at Sandown, & that one got a lot closer to Jonbon than he did to CH.
 
Never a great idea to cross reference form like that but I admit if I only had backed Jonbon CH would terify the life out of me and I would be praying he'd go for the Ballymore.

Sometime I feel it in my bones that I have seen a true Champion...I still have the copy of an email I sent to David Cleary Timeform stating Sprinter was the new Arkle just after he won at Doncaster.

This, I admit is, not one of those times. Anyone of the four could win the Supreme and it would not be a surprise.

Again if anyone is being honest with themselves they would admit they/we haven't got a bloody clue what's going to win the race.
 
Agree with that. Much easier to choose the ones that can’t win.

re CH/Jonbon collaterall form with Might I, Jonbon was conceding 6lbs at Haydock, so they’re pretty close on that line. I don’t think Jonbon did it as “easily” as Tanlic suggests - ridden right out to assert after the last - but his superiority was clear.

Just have to hope the principals (whichever ones end-up going) all run their race. It should be a belter of a contest if they do.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Agree with that. Much easier to choose the ones that can’t win.

re CH/Jonbon collaterall form with Might I, Jonbon was conceding 6lbs at Haydock, so they’re pretty close on that line. I don’t think Jonbon did it as “easily” as Tanlic suggests - ridden right out to assert after the last - but his superiority was clear.

Just have to hope the principals (whichever ones end-up going) all run their race. It should be a belter of a contest if they do.
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Also think the ground would have suited Might I more at Haydock than it did at Sandown.
 
Jonbon had to work for the win there's no denying that but AC put it down to the ground and said nothing could quicken up on it that day.

Stop Press: Tommy's Oscar had no problem with it and flew home 12 seconds faster than the last race

It may well be we have seen a horse in Jonbon who is unsuited by very soft ground.

When he beat GRAA at Ascot Jonbon absolutely flew after the last and was far from flat out but tht ground was probably on the good side of good to soft
 
tiggers1972 said:
Also think the ground would have suited Might I more at Haydock than it did at Sandown.
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Aye Tiggers, the ground might have had a bearing, Might I may have improved some, and whatever weight adustment is made, but does all that add up to the near 10 length difference and the manner it was achieved in, though?
 
For the life of me I can’t sort them out. Probably a bit starry eyed so far as Jonbon is concerned, but CH and DD were mighty impressive . Not so sure about SG as jumping seems a tad sketchy, wouldn't be surprised if he goes for Ballymore. Bring it on - I do hope they get reasonable ground.
 
reet hard said:
Aye Tiggers, the ground might have had a bearing, Might I may have improved some, and whatever weight adustment is made, but does all that add up to the near 10 length difference and the manner it was achieved in, though?
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Quite possibly.
Harry Fry's horses (Metier a prime example) seem to be far better wallowing in mud, so Might I's his run against Jonbon (receiving 6lbs) would be far more to his liking than when facing CH on G/S at Sandown.

I think the top 4 in the betting here could all be exceptional, my heart wants either of the Hendo pair to win (probably CH), but my head says DD.

Sir Gerhard will go for the Ballymore IMO as his jumping is the worst of the four.

Good to have you back by the way Reet
 
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That was not the first time or the last time WPM left me scratching my head.
He runs Vautour in the Supreme over 2m who wins easily
He then runs Faugheen over 2m5f in the Neptune who also wins easily.

So which one do you back for the following years Champion Hurdle.......Easy it has to be Vautour he's the 2 miler Faugheen needs further.

In his very nexe race he switches them and Vautour runs over 2m4f and Faugheen over 2m and the rest is history.

He must be the most unpredicatble trainer that ever lived:D
 
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This gets brought up nearly every year but don’t Ballymore winners have a better record than Supreme winners with regards the Champion Hurdle. There’s a common theory that you need more stamina to win a Supreme based on the end to end gallop, than you do a Ballymore.
 
Not that you would notice Wilson. Neither race has set the world on fire re the Champion Hurdle

Only two Supreme winners have ever won the CH and 3 Ballymore winners.....Mind you Bula was one and Faugheen and Istabraq the others.

Makes you wonder where on earth do CH winners come from?

EDIT just looked back at a few seems they ran in the Supreme and were placed like Buvi Jezki and Binocular

Others like H. Fly and Espoir d'Allen never saw Cheletenam until they won their Champion Hurdles.

Haven't come across one Ballymore placed horse that won the CH but didn't search that much
 
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Tanlic said:
Not that you would notice Wilson. Neither race has set the world on fire re the Champion Hurdle

Only two Supreme winners have ever won the CH and 3 Ballymore winners.....Mind you Bula was one and Faugheen and Istabraq the others.

Makes you wonder where on earth do CH winners come from?

EDIT just looked back at a few seems they ran in the Supreme and were placed like Buvi Jezki and Binocular

Others like H. Fly and Espoir d'Allen never saw Cheletenam until they won their Champion Hurdles.

Haven't come across one Ballymore placed horse that won the CH but didn't search that much
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Peddlers Cross
 
Tanlic said:
Not that you would notice Wilson. Neither race has set the world on fire re the Champion Hurdle

Only two Supreme winners have ever won the CH and 3 Ballymore winners.....Mind you Bula was one and Faugheen and Istabraq the others.

Makes you wonder where on earth do CH winners come from?

EDIT just looked back at a few seems they ran in the Supreme and were placed like Buvi Jezki and Binocular

Others like H. Fly and Espoir d'Allen never saw Cheletenam until they won their Champion Hurdles.

Haven't come across one Ballymore placed horse that won the CH but didn't search that much
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Hardy Eustace

Sorry just seen post above

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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wilsonl said:
This gets brought up nearly every year but don’t Ballymore winners have a better record than Supreme winners with regards the Champion Hurdle. There’s a common theory that you need more stamina to win a Supreme based on the end to end gallop, than you do a Ballymore.
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The record of winners in both races going onto win the Champion Hurdle is pretty patchy tbh, Lee.

Of Ballymore winners in the last 25 years, only Istarbraq, Hardly Useless and Faugheen have gone on to win a Champion Hurdle, and of winners of the Supreme in the same period, only Hors La Loi III and Brave Inca went on to win a Champion Hurdle.

I'm not entirely sure what to read into it. Whilst I think there probably is some truth in the Supreme/Stamina theory, I'm not entirely convinced by it - mainly because winners tend to do very well over fences at the minimum trip. What does appear to be the case (especially latterly), is that Supreme winners seem to be more readily sent over fences in the next season, as compared with Ballymore winners. This might also play into the perception that the Ballymore is a better Champion Hurdle 'trial'.
 
Euronymous said:
He can try, but the Hendo duo this year are miles better than Josses Hill and Vaniteux
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One by one they will be off the bridle. What Jonbon finds will be interesting. His Haydock run probably better than some think.
CH, think Hendo has a serious hard on for him the way he talks.
 
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Don't understand whe the logic comes from saying that RoR wone a few times on soft including overc2m4f st aCheltenham plus the Fly beat him again a few weeks later in Ireland...If the real Fly had turned up the year before he might never have won 1 never mind 2
 
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