Supreme Novices Hurdle 15 March 2022

Grasshopper said:
The record of winners in both races going onto win the Champion Hurdle is pretty patchy tbh, Lee.

Of Ballymore winners in the last 25 years, only Istarbraq, Hardly Useless and Faugheen have gone on to win a Champion Hurdle, and of winners of the Supreme in the same period, only Hors La Loi III and Brave Inca went on to win a Champion Hurdle.

I'm not entirely sure what to read into it. Whilst I think there probably is some truth in the Supreme/Stamina theory, I'm not entirely convinced by it - mainly because winners tend to do very well over fences at the minimum trip. What does appear to be the case (especially latterly), is that Supreme winners seem to be more readily sent over fences in the next season, as compared with Ballymore winners. This might also play into the perception that the Ballymore is a better Champion Hurdle 'trial'.
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Don't most supreme winners go chasing the following season?
 
Let's have a look:
2020 Appreciate It - still hurdling but only after an issue
2019 Shishkin - Chasing, runner-up possibly CH frame worthy
2018 Klassical Dream - Initially went chasing
2017 Summerville Boy - Did try fences but now hurdling. Like KD is a boat
2017 Labaik - Not seens since, runner up placed in CH's

And then you've got that amazing Altior, Douvan, Vautour run. All chasers but all would have been CH favs if they'd stayed hurdling
 
yeah, not backed him myself but looking forward to the race so much it'd be a shame if any of the main 3-4 principles missed out
 
Same. I want to see Jonbon run and hit the frame. Will be backing him for the 2023 Champion Hurdle granted a good run
 
Nicky has already stated he and CH's futures are over fences but at a guess if Constitution Hill were to win the Supreme in the same fashion as he has won his previous races
I think they would be very tempted to stay hurdling.

The other point is Nicky said they are both 2 milers so unless one of them comletely flops he's hardly likely to send both for the Arkle next season

Not a bad problem to have though.
 
Of course he's had Arkle horses just hasn't managed to win the race so far
Just off the top of my head Captain Cee Bee went off fav for the Arkle
Defi Du Seuil won the Tingle Creek The Shloer and ran in the Arkle

He's been around along time so it wouldn't surprise me if their a couple more lurking eround in the past
 
7 runners since 2000.
Fakir d'oudairies 2nd 2020
Tap night 5th 2013
Rock noir 8th 2011
Captain cee bee 8th 2010
Dont push it fell 2007
Foreman 3rd 2006
Youlneverwalkalone 10th 2002
 
You definitely had a misspent youth :lol:

Sorry...It was the QMCC Defi Du Seuil ran in, he won the JLT as a novice chaser
 
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What a race it is this year ! I am a big Constitution Hill fan and if Mullins runs his big two I think Sir Gerhard is the danger. wonder if Rachael will ride ? If Townend chooses Dysart.
 
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Much as I fully respect the opposition, I'm tempted to suggest that if DD runs in the Supreme a place is the best the others can hope for.

I should add that the suggestion is based purely on my interpretation of his wide-margin win last time and that I haven't had the chance to fully examine the credentials of the others. It's just that my provisional figure for DD is higher than Altior's or Shishkin's AFTER their Supreme win.

It may well be that either or both CH and Jonbon are better than those two as well.
 
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Outsider said:
7 runners since 2000.
Fakir d'oudairies 2nd 2020
Tap night 5th 2013
Rock noir 8th 2011
Captain cee bee 8th 2010
Dont push it fell 2007
Foreman 3rd 2006
Youlneverwalkalone 10th 2002
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None of these anywhere near potential Champion Hurdle class as novice hurdlers, Jonbon is.
 
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Basically no one has a clue what's going to win but somebody will be right and get the bragging rights.
I respect everyones views and it wont be a surprise if anything in the first 5 in the betting wins,yes I've included Kilcruit.

I cant see Sir Gerhard running in it.i think the Ballymore.
I've done Kilcruit 16/1 to win.
And will probably do Jonbon simply because it didnt run in the betfair.

And when DD wins I will be cursing for not following DO.
 
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