Sussex Stakes

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At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
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Location
Ireland
Astronomer Royal A. P. O'Brien, Ireland
Dream Eater A. M. Balding
Henrythenavigator A. P. O'Brien, Ireland
Major Cadeaux R. Hannon
Minneapolis A. P. O'Brien, Ireland
Nahoodh M. Johnston
Raven's Pass J. H. M. Gosden
Tariq P. W. Chapple-Hyam
Us Ranger A. P. O'Brien, Ireland
Windsor PalaceA. P. O'Brien, Ireland
Winker Watson P. W. Chapple-Hyam
 
Ballydoyle aside (and I can't see them running too many against Henry), the only older horses are Major Cadeaux and Tariq. That's a pretty shocking turnout.
 
Indeed, for those that complain about Ballydoyle running more than one horse, alot of these races would cut up badly if they did not.
 
Agree about the number of older horses ... thought Darjina may have been entered?

If Gosden/Fortune finally ride Raven's Pass positively, I think he has a good chance of turning over Henrythenavigator. I can't think of any milers of the past few years that would have won his last 3 races from the position he was in. They need to strongly believe he stays a mile, and ride him in the front 3/4. He's surely an each way steal if nothing else?

Btw, I think Henry is a better than average Guineas winner.
 
I think Darjina is going to Deauville for the Prix Rothschild (formerly the Prix d'Astarte).
 
Ravens Pass had no excuses at Ascot (whatever about Newmarket). Turning in he was not far behind Henry and never looked like getting past him. Henry will need to run below form for him to have a chance.
 
Galileo said:
Ravens Pass had no excuses at Ascot (whatever about Newmarket). Turning in he was not far behind Henry and never looked like getting past him. Henry will need to run below form for him to have a chance.
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I'm not saying he had any excuses; just think that Murtagh was after Henry quite a bit before Fortune went for Raven's Pass, and an earlier, more vigorous riding of Raven's Pass with a more prominent position would have brought about an improved showing.

I'm not necessarily saying he would have won, just they are not riding him to achieve the absolute maximum possible. As he is an each way steal, imo, it shouldn't cost to find out, presuming they ride him more prominent.

Fwiw, I think Raven's Pass could stay further than a mile, as he has finished his last 2 races the better than most other horses in the race.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
Fwiw, I think Raven's Pass could stay further than a mile, as he has finished his last 2 races the better than most other horses in the race.
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Which is hardly surprising given the way he is being ridden? Does not mean he would finish as strongly if using himself more early on. To me he was disappointing the last day, given alot to do but he took an age to get past the third and fourth horses that day.
 
God I can't wait to see Winker Watson now after some blinding gallops. RFC with the Ballydoyle horse for me.
 
He ran well, he was a good two gallops short and he was never there expected to win, it was just a needed run. They left him short because they didn't want him to run too well and then need more time to recover.

If he is to get a mile it will be here at Goodwood, but he has progressed nicely and remains in very good form. Peter Chapple-Hyam hasn't really got anything good enough to work him with but his gallops with Al Qasi are impressive enough to suggest he can take a hand. Taking on Henrythenavigator is a big ask but he has been more impressive in his work than Tariq and that would indicate that he has solid each way credentials.

I'm a little upset to see US Ranger in the race, he's too good to be a lead horse and he doesn't stay a mile, I thought the 6.5f race in Deauville would have been perfect for him.
 
US Ranger is a most unlikely runner.

Winker Watson at 20/1 is an interesting place bet alright. Like Chris says, if he is going to get a mile, it will be at Goodwood.
 
I'd imagine that is the thinking behind US Ranger's entry as well, but surely a case of "best available" in case something goes wrong with Henry in the next few days.
 
Winker Watson running well would be run of those things that would make sense in retrospect - classy juvenile, out injured, comes back with a quiet run...
 
Finding it hard to get excited about this race. I can`t see any angle to attack it with from a punting point of view.
 
Euronymous said:
I can`t see any angle to attack it with from a punting point of view.
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They bet 25/1 bar 2 on Betfair at the moment, so an each way steal on Raven's Pass at 7/2 with Boylesport (1/5 1-2-3) is tremendous value. Nahoohd is friendless, so it looks there could be a very small field (NOTE: remember that ante-post bets are settled on the terms when the bet is struck).

I have no strong views about the race itself - it's just a great bet.
 
Major Cadeaux
Tariq
Dream Eater (IRE) (Tongue Strap)
Henrythenavigator (USA)
Raven's Pass (USA)
Windsor Palace (IRE)
Winker Watson
 
Hard to see any betting angle. You'd imagine the nature of the course will make life a bit harder for Henry, but not enough to stop him winning.
 
.

Henrythenavigator 129+ (135?)
Raven’s Pass 127
Major Cadeaux 122p t
Dream Eater 122?
Tariq 120+

Raven’s Pass might have found his Prix Jean Prat race a bit too soon after getting quite close to Henrythenavigator at Ascot but the latter was quite a tactical affair, which may flatter him [Raven's Pass]. The favourite is unopposable.

However, I said at the time I was rating the Guineas high, via Stimulation (on 113 for the Free Handicap). I also rated the King Charles II at Newmarket and Jersey Stakes at Ascot via him, and they are all working out well. As for the Guineas, we all know New Approach and Henry are genuine G1 horses. Stubbs Art disappointed in the SJP but Strike The Deal and Stimulation ran fairly close to form in the Jersey. Dream Eater was one of only two in the first ten home (the other was the French horse War Officer) to have come from the back of the field and plugged on well, suggesting a return to a mile would suit.

I've taken 'enhanced win' odds of 80/1 as a value bet in case any misfortune should befall the favourite.


(PS - not sure how this ended up in blue!)

(PPS - I've just added an EW @ 14/1 without Henry now that totesport have put up odds)
 
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BGC SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1)

(3yo+)
Winner £170,310.00
1m

1(2) Major Cadeaux
25-211
4 9-7 R Hannon Richard Hughes

Tough and consistent performer at group 2 and group 3 grade over 7f and showed a willing attitude last time out. Work at home with Paco Boy looks more encouraging after his win today but needs to improve on all his known form here.

2(5) Tariq
115-39
4 9-7 P W Chapple-Hyam Seb Sanders

Tough sort whose best win came here last season when winning the Lennox Stakes. Highly tried in 2 starts this season without success and return to this track likely to suit. Capable on his day but still needs to step up here giving weight away.

3(7) Dream Eater
316-53
3 8-13t A M Balding Francis Norton

Looked a non stayer when 5th in the Guineas but ran a much better race when a staying on 3rd in the Jersey. That form not exactly franked since but shaped as if a mile on an easy track would suit on that occasion. Dangerous to write off here and may go well without shaking up the favourite.

4(3) Henrythenavigator
23-111
3 8-13 A P O´Brien J Murtagh

Without the class act in the race and very much the one to beat. Faultless in all three starts so far he looks like he will be too good for his opposition here. Hard to oppose him really but at 4/9 he isn’t really a betting proposition.

5(6) Raven´s Pass
3-2422
3 8-13 J H M Gosden Jimmy Fortune

Probably the 2nd best horse in the line up and having shown good early fomr he was a solid 4th in the Guineas. Two sound efforts since and shook up Henrythenavigator at Ascot but the winner did look to have a bit more in the tank that day. His hold up tactics could see a couple getting a run on him here but one of the more likely ones to come 2nd.

6(1) Windsor Palace
8518-
3 8-13 A P O´Brien David McCabe

Winner of his maiden but struggled in group 3 company on his next start afterwards. In here to set a strong pace for Henrythenavigator and looks outclassed at this level.

7(4) Winker Watson
111-7
3 8-13 P W Chapple-Hyam Ryan Moore

Top class 2yo last season who was very impressive when winning the Coventry getting up close home. Ran better than his finishing position suggested on his comeback effort in France and stayed on well before blowing up late on. Looks a tough sort and this sharper track will really suit. Very impressive in recent gallops and at 20/1 he shouldn’t be written off.

Summary

A decent Sussex Stakes and HENRYTHENAVIGATOR is going to be seriously hard to beat on his performances this season.

Whilst Major Cadeaux and Ravens Pass appear to be the main players I would prefer to take some value and go with Winker Watson each way. He is in great form at home and looks a real improver on the gallops. He has a great attitude and worked the house down last weekend. I think he is worth having an each way on at 20/1 as I would expect him to beat stablemate Tariq and I think he can be put it to Ravens Pass who wasn’t too far in front of him last time.

On the without favourite market he does make even more appeal at around 6/1 and he would be a good each way for me at that with it being 1 -2 at ¼ the odds.

Selection: HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (10/10)

Saver: Winker Watson (7/10 E/w) (10/10 W/F Ew)
 
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