Sussex Stakes

Just trying to be fair and consistent. I made a similar comment over at FF when one of them made the same remark about Conduit (in the Eclipse) leading up to the King George.
 
betsmate said:
But that he will always be beaten by genuine G1 milers?
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WFA is a bit high at this time of year I always think . More interesting would have been if PB had been ridden closer to the pace . RVW didn't seem to extend his advantage over him all the way up the straight

So Ghanaati and Lord Shanakill with three G1 wins don't count as genuine G1 milers evidently .
 
As I said before the race, the Sussex Stakes is about as ideal a mile as they could find for Paco Boy. On a stiffer track I would imagine RVW would beat him even further and the others probably a little closer.
 
PB was staying on at the end and even closing on RVW until Hughes accepted the situation in the last 50yds .
 
Ardross said:
WFA is a bit high at this time of year I always think .
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There are hundreds if not thousands of all-age races in the calendar. Surely if the weight for age wasn't as accurate as they can reasonably get it it would have been exploited more often than it is. Obviously you'll get some horses that are more mature than others and for whom the wfa scale is advantageous, especially 2yos, but for every 3yo that beats an older horse at wfa there is, I imagine, an older horse that manages to give the weight.
 
These are just from 2 seasons using RSB..if anyone has more years version then would be interesting

3yo - all age handicaps - 11.5-12.5f

Apr-Jun : 16-116 = 13.8%
Jul-Sep : 44-430 = 10%
Oct-Dec : 16-259 = 6.2%

smallish sample..

but... if you run 10f+ .... 3yo's do well as above..then it drops off as the wfa is reduced

May-Jul : 106/837 : 12.7%
Aug-Oct : 116/1439 : 8.1%
Nov-Dec : 34/338 : 10.1%

its not massive.. but 3yo's definately are favoured early/mid season over these type of trips if those figures mean anything
 
I'd forgotten all about RSB. Do they still exist? I had a couple of years' sample on my PC but it looks like I've deleted it at some point (along with samples of Timeform and Raceform before they renamed it Interactive).

How do those stats reconcile with the old adage never to bet 3yos agaisnt older horses in the first half of the season?
 
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