Tamarinbleu
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Desert Orchid
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Take Tamarinbleu out of the equation and the racing journalists would have been creaming their pants at Twist Magic's 'win' today.
I cannot subscribe to the opinion that Twist Magic, Mansony, Schindler's Hunt, and Hoo La Baloo all ran seriously below form. I reckon Tamarinbleu has simply come of age this season and deserves to be considered up there with Well Chief, Azertyuiop and Moscow Flyer.
I cannot subscribe to the opinion that Twist Magic, Mansony, Schindler's Hunt, and Hoo La Baloo all ran seriously below form. I reckon Tamarinbleu has simply come of age this season and deserves to be considered up there with Well Chief, Azertyuiop and Moscow Flyer.
trackside528
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Moscow Flyer? 
Not a chance.
Not a chance.
Shadow Leader
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I disagree, mainly to do with the point Trackside made on the Ascot thread. It very much looked like Mansony was going to do Twist Magic for second between the second last and the last, until O'Dwyer sat up on him and eased him. Twist Magic was all out and was literally crawling from the final bend onwards.
Arazi
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Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop & Well Chief are in a different league to any 2m chaser that has raced in this decade. All three can be considered up there with the greats that have ran over the trip. Tamarinbleu is an improving horse who in this form clearly will give a good account of himself in whichever race at the festival he runs in but putting him alonside those three is overating him quite a bit imo.
My own figures for Ascot today suggest the ground was faster than it was at Sandown on Tingle Creek day.
Ascot = -4.08 (soft)
Sandown = -5.93 (heavy)
Indeed, the TS going corrections for the chase course seem to support my findings too, as they're bringing Ascot out as faster than Sandown as well. All of which makes me think that the ground can't be used for anything other than selective expedience in defence of Twist Magic. Nicholls did say that "we got away with it" at Sandown? Possibly true. Today he hasn't. That would be more of a compromise explanation. In other words he was able to beat VPU on slightly slower ground, but he seems to have been very quick to point the finger in defeat, when things haven't gone quite his way.
The simple fact is that the Victor Chandler was run at an appreciably more punishing pace than the Tingle Creek (which was also quick in it's own right). Luckily both cards featured a novice chase run over same C&D so we can use the comparative differentials between the four races to illustrate just how significant this might have been, and how much more punishing the VC was than the TC
Sandown
Twist Magic = -13.57 or -6.78 at an aggragate mile
Marodima = -16.24 or -8.12 at an aggregate mile
Today's race featured an extra furlong, so the aggregate mile might be the better guide, but even so, you can see the difference quite markedly.
Ascot
Tamarinbleu = -8.90 or -4.18 at an aggregate mile
Wee Robbie = -17.10 or -8.04 at an aggregate mile
To make sense of the differentials it becomes necessary to divide the Ascot times into furlongs (the Sandown times are already at 2 miles) and then standardise by multiplying by 16 say (Arkle distance).
Tingle Creek -13.57 versus Victor Chandler -8.37
the Henry VIII -16.24 versus Montpeller -16.09
It's immediately noticable just how similar the two novice times are, as opposed to the open grade 1 chase. More telling however, is the respective gap between them, which provided the gulf in class was similar, and that all were run at true pace, should be similar in both instances (especially as many of the same horses featured).
The Tingle Creek however, was run 2.67 seconds faster than the Henry VIII.
The Chandler was run 7.72 seconds faster than the Montpeller (adjusted to 16F). This equates to a shade over 5 seconds, off what was already a reasonable benchmark. I'm not sure that it would be too easy to suggest that the reason for this lies in a slowly run Montpeller that involved a facile finish either.
It was remarked tounge in cheek that Marodima and Mahogny Blaze were running a Temple Stakes trial elsewhere. Sure they gave the impression of going off hell for leather, and quickly detached themselves from Wee Robbie back in third. It isn't necessarily true though that these two were going off lickety spit. The horses running the Temple stakes trial were in the Victor Chandler.
Now I'm loathed to draw on Nick Mordin and his stopwatch, but you can pretty accurately (though not spot on obviously) time this yourselves using ATR and a conventional stopwatch from the moment the leader hits the landing side of the first fence, to the moment they hit the landing side of the third last.
Tamarinbleu completes this distance in 3.02.75 (according to my ropey attempts) the visually faster (virtue of opening the bigger gap and duelling with each other) Mahogny Blaze completes this in 3.06.41, a full 3.66 seconds slower. If you think that the Novices were running a suicidal pace, the leaders in the Chandler were going much faster, and it's perhaps notable how many of them had dropped away by Swinley Bottom.
It is at this juncture in the race however that Tamarinbleu comes into his own and Twist Magic isn't able to continue the uneven fight, although it probably takes Wee Robbie to illustrate it.
Now having conserved his energy, and been 30L's off the leading novice chasers, there might be grounds for thinking that he would now complete the distance from the third last to the finishing post the fastest? (especially as he was involved in a 3 way fight for the line, where as at least Tamarinbleu had burned off his pursuers)
Now from the moment that both horses hit the landing side of the third last to the post, I reckon they ran it in something like;
Tamarinbleu = 1.00.75
Wee Robbie = 1.02.56
Again Tamarinbleu has gone faster by about 1.81 seconds having already been faster by 3.66 to the leading novice up to the third last. Even if the fastest novice had run relays legs, they couldn't have beaten Tamarinbleu. It is the Pipe's horse combination therefore of stamina sustaining his sectional speed that has settled the issue, and Twist Magic has had no answer. When he's been asked to do the same he's eventually folded.
It is often a feature of 2 mile champions that they have the stamina to win grade 1 races at 2 and a half, as when called on to run a fast time in a fiercely competitive race it is this stamina that comes into play, and enable them to be what is in effect 'the last horse to stop slowing up'. MWDS won a fast time Arkle thus, having proved himself over further. 5 of the last 10 Champion Hurdle wins came out of the Sun Alliance (though I'm sure someone will point out a bit double and treble counting there
). Moscow Flyer proved his ability at Aintree, Well Chief couldn't. Proper grade 1 Two mile Championship races often require more stamina to win them than is often imagined, as people wrongly think they're the preserve of speedsters. The Supreme Novices seems to be the finishing school for classy staying chasers (War of Attrition, Kicking King, Best Mate) then novice hurdles at longer trips for instance.
I digress. :shy:
The Champion Chase first run in 1959 has only witnessed two 6yo winners. Inkslinger in 1973 and VPU. What has today done for Twist Magic's chances of joining the list? In truth I don't know. I think he's probably a horse that at this stage of his career is right on the margin of being able to get a fiercely run 2 miles. Today of course he had to encounter an extra furlong and ground that wouldn't have helped, and I wouldn't under estimate that. At Cheltenham these won't and wouldn't normally occur, however the hill is a graveyard for questionable stayers and it's more punishing than Ascot's. There's also the issue of tired jumps, which at Cheltenham will finish his chances, (as it did in last years Arkle) which was also subject of a furious pace, and very fast time. I'd attribute his loss today to pace, trip, and ground, which with two of these not likely to be in play come March, still gives him every chance, especially of a compassionate pace. On balance though I'd say that at this stage everything's pointing to a successful title defence (it's not as if the honours board isn't littered with them).
Ascot = -4.08 (soft)
Sandown = -5.93 (heavy)
Indeed, the TS going corrections for the chase course seem to support my findings too, as they're bringing Ascot out as faster than Sandown as well. All of which makes me think that the ground can't be used for anything other than selective expedience in defence of Twist Magic. Nicholls did say that "we got away with it" at Sandown? Possibly true. Today he hasn't. That would be more of a compromise explanation. In other words he was able to beat VPU on slightly slower ground, but he seems to have been very quick to point the finger in defeat, when things haven't gone quite his way.
The simple fact is that the Victor Chandler was run at an appreciably more punishing pace than the Tingle Creek (which was also quick in it's own right). Luckily both cards featured a novice chase run over same C&D so we can use the comparative differentials between the four races to illustrate just how significant this might have been, and how much more punishing the VC was than the TC
Sandown
Twist Magic = -13.57 or -6.78 at an aggragate mile
Marodima = -16.24 or -8.12 at an aggregate mile
Today's race featured an extra furlong, so the aggregate mile might be the better guide, but even so, you can see the difference quite markedly.
Ascot
Tamarinbleu = -8.90 or -4.18 at an aggregate mile
Wee Robbie = -17.10 or -8.04 at an aggregate mile
To make sense of the differentials it becomes necessary to divide the Ascot times into furlongs (the Sandown times are already at 2 miles) and then standardise by multiplying by 16 say (Arkle distance).
Tingle Creek -13.57 versus Victor Chandler -8.37
the Henry VIII -16.24 versus Montpeller -16.09
It's immediately noticable just how similar the two novice times are, as opposed to the open grade 1 chase. More telling however, is the respective gap between them, which provided the gulf in class was similar, and that all were run at true pace, should be similar in both instances (especially as many of the same horses featured).
The Tingle Creek however, was run 2.67 seconds faster than the Henry VIII.
The Chandler was run 7.72 seconds faster than the Montpeller (adjusted to 16F). This equates to a shade over 5 seconds, off what was already a reasonable benchmark. I'm not sure that it would be too easy to suggest that the reason for this lies in a slowly run Montpeller that involved a facile finish either.
It was remarked tounge in cheek that Marodima and Mahogny Blaze were running a Temple Stakes trial elsewhere. Sure they gave the impression of going off hell for leather, and quickly detached themselves from Wee Robbie back in third. It isn't necessarily true though that these two were going off lickety spit. The horses running the Temple stakes trial were in the Victor Chandler.
Now I'm loathed to draw on Nick Mordin and his stopwatch, but you can pretty accurately (though not spot on obviously) time this yourselves using ATR and a conventional stopwatch from the moment the leader hits the landing side of the first fence, to the moment they hit the landing side of the third last.
Tamarinbleu completes this distance in 3.02.75 (according to my ropey attempts) the visually faster (virtue of opening the bigger gap and duelling with each other) Mahogny Blaze completes this in 3.06.41, a full 3.66 seconds slower. If you think that the Novices were running a suicidal pace, the leaders in the Chandler were going much faster, and it's perhaps notable how many of them had dropped away by Swinley Bottom.
It is at this juncture in the race however that Tamarinbleu comes into his own and Twist Magic isn't able to continue the uneven fight, although it probably takes Wee Robbie to illustrate it.
Now having conserved his energy, and been 30L's off the leading novice chasers, there might be grounds for thinking that he would now complete the distance from the third last to the finishing post the fastest? (especially as he was involved in a 3 way fight for the line, where as at least Tamarinbleu had burned off his pursuers)
Now from the moment that both horses hit the landing side of the third last to the post, I reckon they ran it in something like;
Tamarinbleu = 1.00.75
Wee Robbie = 1.02.56
Again Tamarinbleu has gone faster by about 1.81 seconds having already been faster by 3.66 to the leading novice up to the third last. Even if the fastest novice had run relays legs, they couldn't have beaten Tamarinbleu. It is the Pipe's horse combination therefore of stamina sustaining his sectional speed that has settled the issue, and Twist Magic has had no answer. When he's been asked to do the same he's eventually folded.
It is often a feature of 2 mile champions that they have the stamina to win grade 1 races at 2 and a half, as when called on to run a fast time in a fiercely competitive race it is this stamina that comes into play, and enable them to be what is in effect 'the last horse to stop slowing up'. MWDS won a fast time Arkle thus, having proved himself over further. 5 of the last 10 Champion Hurdle wins came out of the Sun Alliance (though I'm sure someone will point out a bit double and treble counting there
). Moscow Flyer proved his ability at Aintree, Well Chief couldn't. Proper grade 1 Two mile Championship races often require more stamina to win them than is often imagined, as people wrongly think they're the preserve of speedsters. The Supreme Novices seems to be the finishing school for classy staying chasers (War of Attrition, Kicking King, Best Mate) then novice hurdles at longer trips for instance.I digress. :shy:
The Champion Chase first run in 1959 has only witnessed two 6yo winners. Inkslinger in 1973 and VPU. What has today done for Twist Magic's chances of joining the list? In truth I don't know. I think he's probably a horse that at this stage of his career is right on the margin of being able to get a fiercely run 2 miles. Today of course he had to encounter an extra furlong and ground that wouldn't have helped, and I wouldn't under estimate that. At Cheltenham these won't and wouldn't normally occur, however the hill is a graveyard for questionable stayers and it's more punishing than Ascot's. There's also the issue of tired jumps, which at Cheltenham will finish his chances, (as it did in last years Arkle) which was also subject of a furious pace, and very fast time. I'd attribute his loss today to pace, trip, and ground, which with two of these not likely to be in play come March, still gives him every chance, especially of a compassionate pace. On balance though I'd say that at this stage everything's pointing to a successful title defence (it's not as if the honours board isn't littered with them).
trackside528
At the Start
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Excellent post, Warbler. Like yourself, I am far from convinced that the Cheltenham hill will see Twist Magic to best effect, especially given the fact that the pace will most likely be sound.
Agree with Shads again (I need to have a lie down! ) that even without Tamarinbleu, it was plainly obvious that Twist Magic was out on his feet for much of the straight (he walked through two out ffs)..
Agree with Shads again (I need to have a lie down!
) that even without Tamarinbleu, it was plainly obvious that Twist Magic was out on his feet for much of the straight (he walked through two out ffs)..I'd taken my eye off Mansony, even though I held a rating that suggested he could well have the beating of Twist Magic. If the race watchers believe this to be the case, then I'm far from convinced the second and third haven't run pretty close to their previous
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
So where do we think the value is in the QM? It looks a pretty poor renewal at the moment.
I`ve backed Another Promise at fancy prices for the Ryanair - i wonder if Ferdy may fancy a crack at a shorter trip given that the longer contest is looking like it will take more winning this year. Unlikely i know given that the horse looks like he needs further.
I`ve backed Another Promise at fancy prices for the Ryanair - i wonder if Ferdy may fancy a crack at a shorter trip given that the longer contest is looking like it will take more winning this year. Unlikely i know given that the horse looks like he needs further.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That`s mental imo.
A lot of it seems to hinge on what's likely to re-diverted.
Tamarinbleu to the Ryan Air?
MWDS same route or stayers hurdle, either way he looks a v.unlikely runner, though it is probably tantamount to a bet on something going amiss with VPU?
Jack The Giant's future looks to be over further, and that's provided they don't look at a handicap
Nickname rarely makes the trip due to the ground
Fair Along seems to have the one run, disappointed and not be heard of since
Dempsey and Don't Push It look like N/R's as one would suspect Ashley Brook could well be after today.
Master Minded is only a 5yo isn't he? No chance then, hard enough assignment for a 6yo
There's only two possibilities regarding value I'd have thought, one of which has been picked up elsewhere as a re-run of todays race will confirm. Mansony had closed to about 3 to 4L's on Twist Magic and was seemingly reeling him in, before easing down (I've re-watched it now
). One horse is 9/4 the other 25/1 
There's always the possibility of catching Newmill on a going day I suppose. shrug:: Again he's 25/1, which for a previous winner in a weak year (did he not come 4th last year?) isn't a shocking price for what looks like a weaker renewal. Undoubtedly he was flattered by a few fallers, but you'll always get those in the helter skelter of the 2 mile blue ribband. At least he's proven to get round.
Tamarinbleu to the Ryan Air?
MWDS same route or stayers hurdle, either way he looks a v.unlikely runner, though it is probably tantamount to a bet on something going amiss with VPU?
Jack The Giant's future looks to be over further, and that's provided they don't look at a handicap
Nickname rarely makes the trip due to the ground
Fair Along seems to have the one run, disappointed and not be heard of since
Dempsey and Don't Push It look like N/R's as one would suspect Ashley Brook could well be after today.
Master Minded is only a 5yo isn't he? No chance then, hard enough assignment for a 6yo
There's only two possibilities regarding value I'd have thought, one of which has been picked up elsewhere as a re-run of todays race will confirm. Mansony had closed to about 3 to 4L's on Twist Magic and was seemingly reeling him in, before easing down (I've re-watched it now
). One horse is 9/4 the other 25/1 There's always the possibility of catching Newmill on a going day I suppose. shrug:: Again he's 25/1, which for a previous winner in a weak year (did he not come 4th last year?) isn't a shocking price for what looks like a weaker renewal. Undoubtedly he was flattered by a few fallers, but you'll always get those in the helter skelter of the 2 mile blue ribband. At least he's proven to get round.Its looks a murky picture alright. Interesting to see how Dont Push It does when he comes back shortly. I would imagine the Ryanair Chase would be his target but he could be competitive in this.
Think the safest option has to be VPU and I think he will start favourite if he wins the Game Spirit well.
Think the safest option has to be VPU and I think he will start favourite if he wins the Game Spirit well.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Safe yes, but like Sublimity in the CH everything went his way last year. If VPU and Twist Magic head the market on the day i`ll be looking for a couple of big priced outsiders to take `em on.
Personally felt Tamarinbleu broke their hearts, set a decent gallop and turned it into a test of stamina.
He wouldn't be able to do that in the Champion Chase and nothing will touch Racing Demon in the Ryanair, its the biggest bit of printing money ever.
That horse has improved and he doesn't get 3m, but a stiff 2m 5f then I'm sure Tamarinbleu can give him a nice lead to the last.
He wouldn't be able to do that in the Champion Chase and nothing will touch Racing Demon in the Ryanair, its the biggest bit of printing money ever.
That horse has improved and he doesn't get 3m, but a stiff 2m 5f then I'm sure Tamarinbleu can give him a nice lead to the last.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Would you have a problem with Racing Demon going left handed Chris ?
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I read this earlier:
90029P6
These are Tamarinbleu's form figures in March and April.
90029P6
These are Tamarinbleu's form figures in March and April.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Last season, Tamarinbleu didn't run in the Festival.
The three previous years, he finished 9th, 21st and 9th.
The three previous years, he finished 9th, 21st and 9th.