Tamarinbleu

From the RP results:

TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Tamarinbleu (FR) D E Pipe 8 11-7 b Tom Scudamore 12/1 159 174 —
2 12 Twist Magic (FR) P F Nicholls 6 11-7 R Walsh 4/5F 173 160 —
3 11 Mansony (FR) A L T Moore 9 11-7 C O´Dwyer 7/2 158 147 —
4 16 Schindlers Hunt (IRE) D T Hughes 8 11-7 R Loughran 8/1 158 128 —
5 1 Hoo La Baloo (FR) P F Nicholls 7 11-7 Liam Heard 20/1 158 126 —
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I highlighted the ORs in bold. The two Irish runners had no UK OR, so I've substituted the Irish ORs in green.

Tamarinbleu has beaten a horse with an OR of 173 by 12 lengths (which equated to 13lbs), which would put him on 186.

Take Twist Magic out of the race and he's beaten Mansony (OR 158) by 23 lengths (= 25lbs), which equates to 181.

He's beaten Schindlers Hunt (158), which some fancied to beat Mansony, 39 lengths (43lbs), so it's only at this stage you can safely dismiss the literal form lines.

Others have commented on Mansony being eased but the RP suggests he was being ridden again after the last:

Mansony has been in great form in Ireland, but he had a bit to find here and from the fifth last his rider may have accepted that he was unlikely to get to the first two, for having had a good look around at the others he was perhaps intent upon ensuring third place until he realised that Twist Magic was in trouble and started to ride more urgently again.
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Twist Magic was eleven lengths (12lbs) in front of Mansony at the line. Given that Ruby took a pull, that Twist Magic was dead on its feet and that Mansony was eased a little at one stage, it is entirely likely that their relative finishing positions aren't far off expectations (16-17 lengths, based on ORs)

For the time being, I'll certainly be treating Tamarinbleu with the utmost respect.
You may well find that laughable, Bobbyjo; that's your prerogative.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Jan 20 2008, 01:35 PM
Last season, Tamarinbleu didn't run in the Festival.

The three previous years, he finished 9th, 21st and 9th.
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I'd find those stats more convincing than the idea that yesterday's result can't be taken seriously.
 
3, 1, 1, 1 = His form figures since being fitted with blinkers for the first time at Haydock last May shrug::

Remember the parable of See More Business :suspect:
 
Very well spotted Warbler. There is also the matter that David pipe's regime is more geared from waht I can gather to getting horses to bring out their best in the big races, rather than banging in as many winners as possible, and it probably suits the horse better which might also have brought about the improvement.

<< Proper grade 1 Two mile Championship races often require more stamina to win them than is often imagined, as people wrongly think they're the preserve of speedsters. >>

I think you have have hit the nail on the head here, but I do feel the ground - which was bad enough don't forget at Swinley Bottom to have dolled off a fence ie in part unraceable - has a big bearing on this. A known stayer like Tamarinbleu used to racing over further was always going to keep going longer. The surprise is he seems to have found consistent speed as well

The moral of the exercise might be that winning the 2m Champion Case is more ground-dependent than any other Festival race?
 
I would confidently dismiss your ratings DO on the basis that on that ground, I don't think the horses in behind got too hard a race once beaten. Mansony was eased ...he raced briefly after thinking perhaps that TM was catchable for second but then settled for third. As always in heavy ground, winning distances tend to be exaggerated somewhat. It would be wrong to trust them - yet it seems sometimes that certain races are destined to get rated highly due to their status rather than any definable logic.

Moscow, Azerty and Well Chief were awesome horses, the first named in particular. Native Upmanship..albeit not a specialist two mile horse...couldn't get near them in his conditions and he is a far superior horse to Mansony [who may still have improvement in him to be fair] as his trainer I'm sure would tell you.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jan 20 2008, 01:52 PM
So you think its believeable that suddenly Tamarinbleu is in Moscow Flyers league?
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It isn't quite so sudden.

He'd been a low-mid 150s (on my figures) horse a season or two ago. At Perth in May he hit 152+ and then 166+ in the Boylesports. For the time being, I'll be rating yesterday's run via Mansony but will stick a question mark beside it till we see how the form develops, so he'll be '181?' In ball park figures, it mens he's improved a stone or thereabouts from race to race recently. That curve will flatten out sooner rather than later (because it's already very high) and it won't bother me at all if I end up pegging him back a wee bit.

In relative terms, people seem happy enough to mention Exotic Dancer (178p) in the same breath as Kauto Star (185+). Why shouldn't they be happy now to mention Tamarinbleu (181?) in the same breath as Moscow Flyer (185)?
 
I wouldnt think he is Moscow's class but he's definately up there with todays lot and I think the reason Twist was knackered over the last two was because he tried to keep up with Tamarinbleu and was hammered-simple as that!
 
Mansony was indeed eased - it looked like around about the second last O'Dwyer saw that he could have the chance to catch TM - it certainly looked like he could - then slowed up his riding a bit approaching the last and sat up after the last, easing him down. IMO Mansony could possibly have caught Twist Magic but only in ripping the guts out of him and I think O'Dwyer did the right thing on the ground (which was desperate, very tiring).

I also can't have Tamarinbleu bracketed with Moscow FLyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief at their best.

As for Racing Demon being a licence to print in the Ryanair - oh please!!!!! Racing Demon is possibly the last horse you can rely upon to back heavily, even going right handed, mainly due to his over-exuberant jumping which can, and does, often catch him out. Going left handed I wouldn't touch him with stolen money and I'm not even entirely sure that he'll run at Cheltenham.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jan 20 2008, 12:47 PM
From the RP results:

TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Tamarinbleu (FR) D E Pipe 8 11-7 b Tom Scudamore 12/1 159 174 —
2 12 Twist Magic (FR) P F Nicholls 6 11-7 R Walsh 4/5F 173 160 —
3 11 Mansony (FR) A L T Moore 9 11-7 C O´Dwyer 7/2 158 147 —
4 16 Schindlers Hunt (IRE) D T Hughes 8 11-7 R Loughran 8/1 158 128 —
5 1 Hoo La Baloo (FR) P F Nicholls 7 11-7 Liam Heard 20/1 158 126 —
Click to expand...

I highlighted the ORs in bold. The two Irish runners had no UK OR, so I've substituted the Irish ORs in green.

Tamarinbleu has beaten a horse with an OR of 173 by 12 lengths (which equated to 13lbs), which would put him on 186.

Take Twist Magic out of the race and he's beaten Mansony (OR 158) by 23 lengths (= 25lbs), which equates to 181.

He's beaten Schindlers Hunt (158), which some fancied to beat Mansony, 39 lengths (43lbs), so it's only at this stage you can safely dismiss the literal form lines.

Others have commented on Mansony being eased but the RP suggests he was being ridden again after the last:

Mansony has been in great form in Ireland, but he had a bit to find here and from the fifth last his rider may have accepted that he was unlikely to get to the first two, for having had a good look around at the others he was perhaps intent upon ensuring third place until he realised that Twist Magic was in trouble and started to ride more urgently again.
Click to expand...

Twist Magic was eleven lengths (12lbs) in front of Mansony at the line. Given that Ruby took a pull, that Twist Magic was dead on its feet and that Mansony was eased a little at one stage, it is entirely likely that their relative finishing positions aren't far off expectations (16-17 lengths, based on ORs)

For the time being, I'll certainly be treating Tamarinbleu with the utmost respect.
You may well find that laughable, Bobbyjo; that's your prerogative.
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...or you could take the view that only one horse has run anywhere near his race at a track that seems to throw up totally unfathomable results.

I would have Tamarinbleu at about 165?????????? after this and can't see him winning the Champion Chase, weak year or not....
 
Originally posted by tdk@Jan 20 2008, 07:09 PM
...or you could take the view that only one horse has run anywhere near his race at a track that seems to throw up totally unfathomable results.
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That's always in the back of my mind when the ground is heavy. I think the run of Warne's Way, from 8lbs out of the handicap, against Lough Derg is a good example.

However, Mansony has an excellent record on soft or worse.

GOING STARTS WINS 2nds 3rds

Heavy 9 3 3 1
Sft-hvy 3 2 1 0
V soft 1 0 0 0
Soft 8 3 1 1
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Perhaps I should have confessed a long time ago, that I am in actual fact Dave Edwards :D alright I'm not, but I think you knew that anyway. This is what he's written about Tamarinbleu today though in the Weekender.

"Tamarinbleu produced a blistering performance on the clock when putting Twist Magic in his place in last Saturday's 2m 1F Victor Chandler Chase and a time of 4min 13.40sec was only 8.9 secs slower than standard and equated to a Topspeed 174, the best over the distance this season. David Pipe's versatile gelding boasts a portfolio of smart time figures over a variety of distances. He has several options at the Cheltenham Festival.

The eclipse of Tingle Creek winner Twist Magic led connections to blame the ground, but race times do not support that supposition as, from a time perspective, the ground was worse at Sandown than at Ascot. More likely it was the extra furlong at AScot that caused his downfall because his form overall suggests he is much better at the minimum trip. In a strongly run Champion Chase there has to be a doubt about him climbing the Prestbury Park hill full of running and Paul Nicholls' gelding is no 9/4 chance"
 
So, Twist Magic is a short runner and VPU has been very lucky in his two Festival wins. It`s certainly a race to get stuck into nearer the day.
 
I think we need to bear in mind that although it was only a short stretch of the course which was heavy at Ascot, the very fact of irregularly soft ground can seriously affect some horses. The ground at Sandown was better in some places and worse in others than Ascot, but at least it was pretty uniform.

It also makes the Ascot race dangerous to use as a form guide
[imo, not that I'm an expert at this :brows: as we all know - just going on instinct here]
 
It's a plausible explanation, but 9/4 about a 6yo?

Not sure I'd describe VPU as lucky. He's had the run of the green perhaps, but that wouldn't be unique to him. Most horses need things to go right for them somewhere along the line
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Jan 23 2008, 08:25 PM


Not sure I'd describe VPU as lucky. He's had the run of the green perhaps, but that wouldn't be unique to him. Most horses need things to go right for them somewhere along the line
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More than the run of the green i`d suggest. If they`d changed the weight allowance 5yo`s get a few years earlier he`d have been beaten in the Arkle - and most of his main rivals fell last year.
 
The trap I feel people fall into with VPU is that they don't really rate him as he is workmanlike; he doesn't really set the world alight but he tends to get the job done. One thing he is however is the model of consistency and he rarely runs a bad race.

I'd disagree HS that only a short stretch of the course at Ascot was heavy. Even the home straight was pretty desperate yet it's usually faster than the neighbouring M4! If it were indeed only a very small part of the course that was so tiring the horses wouldn't have been finishing the way they were; they were literally crawling on their hands and knees from the home turn.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Jan 23 2008, 09:07 PM
the horses wouldn't have been finishing the way they were; they were literally crawling on their hands and knees from the home turn.
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Hmm. I honestly didn't know horses had hands.
 
I prostrate myself before the feet of the world's greatest living comedian....

(with apologies to Edmund J Blackadder, for those of you who don't get it)
 
Well you did say 'literally' when you meant metaphorically.

Unfortunately I can't be bothered to punch you, so please run on to my fist as fast as you can.
 
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