The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

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Snowed in and with no racing at all on I do not feel bad starting this thread in the middle of the jumps season!!!

Where do people stand antepost wise on this? I backed the two Ballydoyle colts, Steinbeck and Fencing Master, over the winter in the belief they will hold on to St Nicholas Abbey for the Derby.

I think Arcano is a huge danger as I can only see him improving for the step up to a mile and being by Oasis Dream he really should train on well. The worry was that he missed engagements towards the backend of the season and I have not heard of any reports, good or bad, since then.

Awzaan I see as a sprinter and probably not good enough anyway whle Canford Cliffs is very unlikely to get a mile imo and is another who has clearly had problems.

Chabal and Kingsfort could be interesting if Godolphin can get them right.

Any thoughts?
 
I can't see them not having a crack at the Guineas with St. Nick. If they could turn up a Guineas, Derby etc. horse it would help take the wind out of the breeding oppositions Sails after the momentum they have gained with STS.

From what I've seen he has plenty enough speed to run in the Guineas.
 
Steinbeck will prove the best horse from the Dewhurst I think and would be the one I'd back at this stage if you knew what connections fdefinite plans were.
 
I backed Steinbeck for the Guineas on the morning of the Dewhurst, half expecting him to win the latter. I think that my be my only ante-post bet.
 
You wait years for a true champ to come along and than you get 2 one after another. In a normal year the others would be strong Guineas candidates but I think St Nick is going to be great.
 
We don't have to go back very far to see how a winner of the Guineas-Derby double captures the public imagination. St Nicholas Abbey swamped his rivals at Doncaster for pace and he has "Guineas winner" written all over him. He's likely (though not absolutely certain) to stay 12f. If he was mine - he isn't - he'd be going to Newmarket provided he was ready.

If he doesn't go I'd prefer Fencing Master to Steinbeck although the latter is clearly highly regarded. Fencing Master looked clueless early on in the Dewhurst but came home really well. There seems to be a view that on the day horses racing on the rail at Newmarket were at a disadvantage. If that's the case then Steinbeck's run needs upgrading but I'm not so sure.
 
I'd say it's between Steinbeck and Arcano but I'd favour the Ballydoyle horse on the grounds he'll probably have a better preparation and I think his profile suits the race more than the Meehan horse.

I think St Nicholas will go the Fame and Glory Derby route and I also don't consider him as clear of all the other two year olds as everyone else seems to.

This talk of St Nic being the next Sea The Stars is absolute bollocks, you simply cannot tell at this stage.
 
I like St Nicholas Abbey alot but I have him backed for The Derby along with his stablemate Jan Vermeer. I just do not see the point of them running him in the Guineas when he can easily step back to for the major ten furlongs races later on. But I guess we should get good indications in the coming weeks as to how they wintered.
 
I have been checking the 2yo form this weekend and antepost not for me at the moment

almost all the good horses are in the Obrien stable and maybe even them dont know th plans of the horses

if I have to choose now

Derby Jaan Vermeer
2000 Guineas Steibeck

1000 Guineas Special Duty and Seta
Oaks Cabaret


my top rated horse for the moment is St Nicholas Abbey on 126p
 
I know I can be pretty quick to crab a horses temperament and it's possible I may be jumping the gun but it would be a concern for me with Fencing Master. I don't like horses that can't or won't go the early gallop and given his sire, who tended to race indolently himself at times, I'm not prepared to put it down to greenness alone.
 
That is a fair point DJ, I think he has inherited alot of it from his sire....but also his ability. I said it on a thread after his debut win at Dundalk that he is a carbon copy of his sire but just a bigger physical specimen. Tons of scope.
 
sunybay said:
I have been checking the 2yo form this weekend and antepost not for me at the moment

almost all the good horses are in the Obrien stable and maybe even them dont know th plans of the horses

if I have to choose now

Derby Jaan Vermeer
2000 Guineas Steibeck

1000 Guineas Special Duty and Seta
Oaks Cabaret


my top rated horse for the moment is St Nicholas Abbey on 126p
Click to expand...

Looks like this lurgy will be keeping me off for another couple of days so I might check out the 2yo form as well.
 
I backed Showcasing of John Gosdens way back for the 2000. I personally think they would be mad to run St Nick in the 2000, hang on to him for the Derbys. Steinbeck looks the obvious alternative.
 
Galileo said:
I just do not see the point of them running him in the Guineas when he can easily step back to for the major ten furlongs races later on.
Click to expand...

Surely the only reason not to run him in the Guineas is that he's not up to winning it. If he is up to winning it what would be the point of not going to Newmarket?
 
gus said:
Surely the only reason not to run him in the Guineas is that he's not up to winning it. If he is up to winning it what would be the point of not going to Newmarket?
Click to expand...

Because they have others (Steinbeck and Fencing Master) good enough to a Guineas and unlike St Nicolas Abbey they do not have alternative British Classic options. Whats more both Steinbeck and Fencing Master are by two of their young sires.....a big boost for either of them to produce a Guineas winner.

One thing that should be remembered about the Ballydoyle runners is how undercooked both Mastercraftsman and RVW were in the Guineas last year - he certainly did not have them peaked ala George Washington and co of previous years.
 
You may be right but it just seems bizarre to me that at the very point where they get a horse with real prospects of doing the Guineas-Derby double you're suggesting they'd pass up the chance.
 
This talk of St Nic being the next Sea The Stars is absolute bollocks, you simply cannot tell at this stage
Click to expand...

That's right, no one can tell at this stage so your assertion at this point that he is not the next Sts "is absolute bollocks" too. At this stage everyone is just going on their instincts.
 
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Sea The Stars had nothing like the glittering two-year old CV of St Nick, his improvement came over last Winter to transform him into a superstar.

St Nick may or may not be a superstar but plenty of talking heads seem to have already made their mind up. Crowded House was just as impressive in the RP Trophy and look at his three year old career.
 
Comparisons with Sts are based on the feeling that he may be another superstar. That's where the similarity ends. St Nic is also a very different type to crowded house.
 
I don't think that they will go to the Guineas with St Nicholas Abbey. Fencing Master, Steinbeck and maybe Beethoven will provide Ballydoyle with enough contenders and St Nicholas Abbey will be aimed at the Derby.

Steinbeck is the horse I see winning at Newmarket. I was really impressed with him in the Dewhurst.
 
Ballydoyle has overbooking of colts

St Nicholas Abbey has done it very well and is my top rated horse for the moment but has not posted a very fast time yet.

Jaan Vermer looks a better phisical specimen for me at the moment on what I have seen on TV.

Steinbeck run very well in the Dewhurst after a very long lay off.
 
They should run St Nick in the guineas. On breeding you could argue theres less chance of him getting the derby trip than he will imo. I would stick my neck out now and say I will be very very very surprised if he wins the derby and have taken the view on betfair by laying him.
 
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