The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

Mastercraftsman was champion two year old....hardly a backward type.

Rip Van Winkle obvious had his problems over the winter so he was not ready for the race while MCM probably needed the run being a big lazy type of horse. Steinbeck and St Nicholas Abbey strike me as the types that probably do not need that much work - that would be my worry about Fencing Master.
 
Did you manage to make it to Naas (hell of a journey I know... :p) the night of Steinbeck's debut, Gal? Would be interested to know what sort of horse he is physically. Alternatively, anybody have Timeform's physical description handy? Would be appreciated.

Of the Ballydoyle horses, he rates the most likely winner for me. Pedigree suggests he'll be best at up to a mile and, as has been previously stated, a Guineas winner would be a massive boost to his sire. That aside, hard not to be taken with his run in the Dewhurst (particularly if the bias against the rail is to be believed).

Fencing Master looks a carbon copy of Oratorio alright ~ not only do I suspect he will need 10 furlongs, but, like his sire, he looks like the sort that needs plenty of work and thus looks unlikely to be at fever pitch in early May. Hard to know whether St. Nicholas Abbey will run but, even if he does, I highly doubt he will be wound up for the run, which is enough to put me off at current prices.

Michael Stoute's Workforce is another that looks interesting at 20's, whilst it's interesting that Canford Cliffs hasn't even merited so much as a mention yet.

Roll on May? :D
 
Galileo said:
Mastercraftsman was champion two year old....hardly a backward type.

Rip Van Winkle obvious had his problems over the winter so he was not ready for the race while MCM probably needed the run being a big lazy type of horse. Steinbeck and St Nicholas Abbey strike me as the types that probably do not need that much work - that would be my worry about Fencing Master.
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Precocious types are the exception these days.
Already there are intimations of a long-term shift. Increasingly, the intake of young horses from Coolmore is being shared between O'Brien and David Wachman, Magnier's son-in-law, who also trains in Co Tipperary, at Longfield. Last season, Wachman's best to date, was also the one when a division of labour became conspicuous between the two stables. Ballydoyle largely received horses likely to need time and distance before coming into their own; Wachman, in contrast, seems to be getting sharper sorts, more likely to be up and running in time for Royal Ascot.
Addressing the trend publicly for the first time, O'Brien attempted no evasion. To the boss, Wachman was family. It would only be human to "look after the people closest to you first". And O'Brien admitted that his old base, at Piltown in Co Kilkenny, has been constantly updated against the day when he moves back with Anne-Marie and the children.
"The time might come, as David progresses, that he might obviously get more of the better horses as every year goes by," he said. "And the reality of that is if he does progress, it would only be human nature for the boss to want to send him all the horses, over a period of time. If that does happen – and I consider myself very good friends with the boss – believe me there would be no hard feelings. We'd have done our best. We have our own place set up. And since we left, every year that went by, it has developed more and we have improved it, so it's a great facility. We've mares there, and Anne-Marie's dad [Joe Crowley] is training there at the moment. We have some mares breeding, with the boss, so hopefully we'd be quite self-sufficient when the time does come."

If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain and bitter,
For always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.
Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans.

For the moment, O'Brien is happy adjusting to a fresh place in the scheme of things. Despite this preponderance of horses with stamina in their genes, he has still come up with two – Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman – fast enough to be fancied for the first Classic of the season, the Stan James 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on 2 May. Most of the other three-year-olds at Ballydoyle, however, will still be groping towards maturity during the coming months. O'Brien does stress that his patrons, these days, are eager to explore the full potential of their stud prospects – "they don't want to be sending a false horse to stud, and their big horses are run hard" – but teases them that sometimes he is merely laying foundations for Mike De Kock, the South African trainer who buys horses when they fall short of the elite status Coolmore require in a stallion.
"We don't get quite as many of the sharper types as we once did, and some do tend to go to Longfield," he accepted. "So a lot of ours are big, Classic-bred horses, and you have to take your time with them, be gentle with them. If you hurt them, mentally or physically, they'll be no good later.
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It's preposterous for Coolmore to send horses to Wachman because he is family - this isn't National Hunt - there are millions and millions at stake and you need the best - Wachman is far from it, and I don't think will ever reach the level of the likes of AOB, Stoute, Cecil etc.
 
That must be an old article Gal because i'd say O'Brien didn't have such a bad crop of 2yo's last year!!!! :0
 
Gareth Flynn said:
If there's an opposite to damning with faint praise, that's it!
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Indeed! I'd be shocked if someone as canny and astute as Magnier would be stupid enough to send his best horses to a trainer such as Wachman because he is related to him - it's absurd!
 
Aragorn said:
That must be an old article Gal because i'd say O'Brien didn't have such a bad crop of 2yo's last year!!!! :0
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10 April 2009, the Independent.

I think the point is the horses that he has been getting in recent years are not as precocious as the ones that Wachman is getting. It takes precocity to win a Guineas and Aidan does not have as many potential Guineas horses as he used to.
 
It is clear he is not getting the sharp two year olds as in the past - but it was equally clear (to my eyes) that if MCM was precocious enough to win a Phoenix Stakes by many lengths then he was precocious enough to win a Guineas. He just was not ready for it.
 
He looked ready enough on the day, he looked a million dollars. I think he was beat fair and square personally but that's not a reflection of Ballydoyle's record in the event.

They are without doubt, the stable to be afraid of in the Guineas (as opposed to the Derby when I oppose them for fun), something I've overlooked to my own personal misfortune in past years and I don't intend on making the mistake this year as Steinbeck looks a very reasonable bet.
 
I remember being really taken with MCM in the Guineas and was amazed to see so many rule him out or not see the promise shown. Blew up running down the dip up stayed on again once meeting the rising ground.

Gamla Stan said:
He looked ready enough on the day, he looked a million dollars. I think he was beat fair and square personally but that's not a reflection of Ballydoyle's record in the event.

They are without doubt, the stable to be afraid of in the Guineas (as opposed to the Derby when I oppose them for fun), something I've overlooked to my own personal misfortune in past years and I don't intend on making the mistake this year as Steinbeck looks a very reasonable bet.
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Gal, not sure how you blow up running down hill then stay on up the hill? Seems a paradoxical notion to me. I just thought he was not quick enough on the day.

I was there guineas day as well and he looked well but is a big horse and I thought the run would bring him on. Sea the stars stood out like a sore thumb in the paddock and somehow continued to look even better as the year went on... He was a bigger more powerful horse by the end of the year..
 
This clears this up regarding their running plans....:)

Speaking on Thursday, O'Brien said: "It’s a case of so far so good with all the horses and at this stage we haven’t made any decisions on targets yet, and we’re keeping all options open."

No yard in Ireland escaped the recent cold snap and O'Brien added: "We got as much snow as anybody else recently and it wasn't a helpto anybody and they were all on the easy list."
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It's a race i'll leave alone this year. I want to be against the Ballydoyle crew but can't have Canford Cliffs, Arcano or the Godolphin duo because of their Trainers and the rest either won't stay or wont be good enough.
 
Richard Hannon will give Canford Cliffs a 2000 Guineas prep run in the Greenham Stakes.
The Marlborough trainer confirmed that last year's runaway Coventry Stakes winner will have his first start of the season over seven furlongs at Newbury on April 17.
Canford Cliffs was ante-post favourite for the stanjames.com-sponsored mile Classic until having his colours lowered on his third and final start of the season in the Group One Prix Morny at Deauville in August.
He is now a 10-1 chance for the Guineas with Sky Bet, but Hannon says the Tagula colt has thrived over the winter.
Speaking from Barbados where he is on holiday, Hannon said: "Canford Cliffs looks a picture. He's done really well over the winter and I couldn't be more pleased with him.
"He will run in one of the trials, probably the Greenham. I want to start him off over seven furlongs rather than a mile and that looks his race.
"He's a good horse - make no mistake. And if all goes well he'll run in the Guineas after that."
Hannon, whose 181 winners last season earned more than £2.75million, thinks Dick Turpin, who won the Group Two Richmond Stakes last summer before signing off the season with a disappointing sixth place in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket, could return there for his seasonal reappearance.
He said: "I can't put him in the same league as Canford Cliffs, but he's a very nice horse and once he fills his frame he'll be even better.
"He looks stronger and he's thrived over the winter. We will look at something like the European Free Handicap (at Newmarket on April 14) for him to start off with and we hope he'll make up into a Classic colt, too."
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Didn't Canford Cliffs have all the hallmarks of a precocious 2yo? Does he have the same scope for improvement as horses that showed good levels of form despite their immaturity?
 
Euronymous said:
It's a race i'll leave alone this year. I want to be against the Ballydoyle crew but can't have Canford Cliffs, Arcano or the Godolphin duo because of their Trainers and the rest either won't stay or wont be good enough.
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Hannon has trained 3 2000 Guineas winners .
 
Aidan O'Brien has described 2000 Guineas and Derby favourite St Nicholas Abbey as "unusual" as he prepares the colt for a Classic campaign.
The son of Montjeu remained unbeaten through his two-year-old season and created a huge impression when waltzing away with the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster.
"Everyone saw last year that he looked a very unusual horse. He's just ticking over and everything is fine with him. It is so far so good," the trainer told At The Races.
"He looked a very exciting horse indeed last year and we are very excited about this year with him. I'm not sure where he'll start off yet. We'll wait until the spring when they all come together and see how they are.
"They usually go away to work somewhere at the end of March and the Curragh are usually very kind and let us go there before the Guineas, and we'll see where they all fit in.
"All options are open to him at the moment. He's by Montjeu, but he has loads of speed and obviously loads of class. He can cruise through his races and quicken.
"He'll be trained with Classics in mind, but he does look very unusual at the moment.
"We are under no pressure to try and follow what Sea The Stars did last year. We'll let the horse tell us when he is ready to run and circumstances change every year. We'll just play it by ear and take one day at a time.
"He'll be trained for the Classics, though, as they are what everybody dreams of."
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