The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

I have no fears at all regarding SNA over 12 furlongs...either does Tony Morris...

St Nicholas Abbey is out of Leaping Water, an unraced mare by Sure Blade, who earned his reputation as a miler, failed as a sire, and has cut little ice as a broodmare sire. Can we believe that he might have supplied a dash of speed for the Beresford winner to make him perhaps a contender for the Guineas as well as the Derby?
Frankly, it is hard to see Sure Blade being a positive influence for anything, and it will be better for St Nicholas Abbey's prospects of top-level success if he is a pure Montjeu, a faithful scion of the Sadler's Wells tribe.
Leaping Water has had an odd career, changing hands for only 3,200gns as a three-year-old, spending her first three seasons in the company of Pips Pride, then venturing to America with a Definite Article colt inside her who proceeded to win a couple of Grade 2 turf events in California.
Her spell in the States, visiting indifferent sires, proved unproductive, but she then came home for coverings by Sadler's Wellsand Montjeu – an upmarket move explained by the emergence of her young half-brothers Aristotle and Ballingarry, both sons of Sadler's Wells, as Group 1 winners.
This is a family in which stamina predominates, and it is a fair bet that we shall see the best of St Nicholas Abbey when he has the opportunity to stretch out to 1m4f next summer.
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To my eye he has just too much speed before I consider anything else. Watching him in the RP trophy and the Beresford the turn of foot he showed off a pedestrian pace in both races says to me he is gonna be stretched over a distance. I see him as a RVW horse obviously with a better CV at this point in his career. No doubt he will be tried over further but ultimately will be a miler.
 
He won over a mile in bottomless ground at The Curragh first time out....different type to RVW (who is by Galileo) altogether and is just a very classy colt but the Derby trip will not be an issue imo. The Montjeu influence on his pedigree should not be underestimated.
 
Are you not concerned that St Nicholas Abbey hasn't produced a good time on his 3 starts, I am because the chances he'll be able to get a slow pace in the classics next year is very slim.
 
LukeWilson said:
Are you not concerned that St Nicholas Abbey hasn't produced a good time on his 3 starts, I am because the chances he'll be able to get a slow pace in the classics next year is very slim.
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Chances are he (like most hold up horses) will be better suited at coming off a fast pace than a slow one. The fact his races have been slowly run only enhance what he achieved in mowing down smart animals after basically giving them a start.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if St Nick goes to the Guineas as his value when he retires if he wins a Guineas and a Derby like Sea the Stars is huge.There could be three or four Ballydoyle colts at Newmarket but O'brien will have one for the French Guineas and one or two for the Irish.He also has Joshua Tree and other horses like Alfred Nobel
 
Galileo said:
Chances are he (like most hold up horses) will be better suited at coming off a fast pace than a slow one. The fact his races have been slowly run only enhance what he achieved in mowing down smart animals after basically giving them a start.
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disagree
could be suited to a stronger pace, but has to prove it.
 
There seems to be two different arguements regarding St Nic not going for the Guineas. One is they have others who could win in his absence and the other is that he is a stayer.

If Aidan O'B reckons the horse has the speed to win the Guineas before the Derby there is no way they will not run him. The Guineas, Epsom Derby double is the Holy Grail for stallion masters.

If as someone has pointed out that the horse has excelerated off a slow pace to win his races it is further proof that he has the speed for a Guineas. If there is a doubt over his trip (if in fact he has an optimum trip) than it is whether he will get a Derby trip. As a montjeu out of a half sis to Ballingarry and Aristotle you'd have to say he will . Also Sure blades best progeny was Needle gun, a stayer, albeit out of a mare bred to stay.
 
I think he could have the pace to win a Guineas, but that they have other horses to consider for the same race that would boost the prospects of their other less accomplished stallions.

What's more if the ground turned up very fast come the Guineas it could ruin the horse for the rest of the season.

By the end of the year if St Nic has won the Derby, Irish Champion and Arc in scintillating fashion the missing Guineas from his CV will not mean much.
 
It's a good point Re: boosting the profile of a less well established stallion. Perhaps it is a decision they have already made. If that where the case I would say it would most likely be Oratorio (Danehill) than footstepsinthe sand (Giants Causeway) Get the feeling they're not in love with the storm cat line anymore.

I don't agree that a missing Guineas from the Cv is negated by the other big races over middle distances and my feeling is that if they reckon he is quick enough he'll go for the Guineas. Horses that can win a Guineas and a Derby are very rare and command a huge fee. Sts success had to have hurt a little, gracious and all as they where.
 
There's nothing stopping them running all three in the race.

Fallon pick a spare ride up for them this year in the race?
 
Do Ballydoyle really need another high class middle distance stallion? Montjeu and Galileo are the pre-eminent middle distance sires and St Nich would end up in direct competition if he won a bunch of 12f G1's. Personally I think they will be salivating at the prospect of a Montjeu winning the guineas and he will almost definitely run. Steinbeck could end up going the french route as I don't see those races suiting Fencing Master or Beethoven.
 
I can see them sending St Nick to the Guineas, as they will want to upstage Sea the Stars. Even if they think they might have something better than St Nick, a good run from him without winning would be a good prep for the Derby, as well as being good for his CV. I can definitely see them sending Steinbeck, as even if beaten by St Nick, he can still win the Irish Guineas and the St James Palace and go on to be the top 3 yr old miler in the absence of winning an English Classic. I can also see them sending Beethoven, as they seem to think a lot of him and he is after all the Dewhurst winner, but like his sire, I think he will be best at 10f. Don't forget Cape Blanco, he has a similar profile to RVW, could run a good race as a prep for the Derby, though may also prove to be best at 10f. I think Alfred Nobel will go for the French Guineas as I don’t think he gets a strongly run mile. That leaves Fencing Master, also likely to be best at 10f, may go for something like the French Derby with a prep in English/Irish Guineas. So, five potential runners, from which I imagine they will select three at most, I'm guessing St Nick, Steinbeck and Beethoven.
 
Forgot about Cape Blanco - O'Brien has always maintained he will be better on a better surface than he has raced on so far. I find him difficult to weigh up though as i'm not sure he is necessarily a guineas horse. Looked to lack a bit of toe for me last year but then a strongly run mile could suit. Looks a 10f horse to me though.
 
Aragorn said:
Forgot about Cape Blanco - O'Brien has always maintained he will be better on a better surface than he has raced on so far. I find him difficult to weigh up though as i'm not sure he is necessarily a guineas horse. Looked to lack a bit of toe for me last year but then a strongly run mile could suit. Looks a 10f horse to me though.
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Has French Derby written all over him. Think he may be their forgotten horse for the year as well with all the talk of St Nick and Steinbeck
 
Cape Blanco reminds me a little of New Approach, in pedigree and running style and both won the Futurity, Cape Blanco on his last start. Could be the dark horse !
 
I've heard they rate Cape Blanco very highly.What i can see is a horse by Galileo doing very well as they really want one at stud so i think backing one by Galileo could be a an alright bet i know people will say you should never back on breeding but its something that i think will happen
 
The Ballydoyle lot don't even try and win the Guineas these days and yet their horses seem to be the only ones being discussed here. I wouldn't touch any of them with a barge pole.
 
Euronymous said:
The Ballydoyle lot don't even try and win the Guineas these days and yet their horses seem to be the only ones being discussed here. I wouldn't touch any of them with a barge pole.
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They won it the year before last and in 2005 and 2006.

Granted, their challenge last year was poor given their ammo but you to say they don't try and win it these days is a massive overreaction!
 
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