The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

Gareth Flynn said:
Of course. Canford Cliffs should be capable of running a time figure equivalent to his OR or better. I just don't think he did it today, which would guide me towards taking a conservative view of the form of today's race. It's more to avoid over-rating the placed horses, mind; CC clearly toyed with them today.
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totally agree...but one race that suggested he has run above his OHR is the older handicap..i got that race 7lbs slow..it may have been.. but on paper it looks a truly run job..so you wouldn't really want to be making it any slower which you would need to do to reduce CC's figure

its not a cut and dried job ..you are right..just wish the other straight track races had run on the same strip of ground..then we would have had a far more definate picture here

we will just have to monitor the 2nd & 3rd
 
Apologies. I thought you were speaking specifically about CLASS pars, and made that clear in my answer. Most people I know call "standard times" just that. I cannot follow what point you were trying to make by conflating standard times with class pars. The two are very different.
 
On day one, with a blank sheet, you assess the ability that the horses showed as you would whenever you have a blank sheet. You are not guided by some crude assumption of how well or how fast the winners will have run irrespective of the circumstances.

As I have said, I think this is a discussion for another thread.
 
J Alfred Prufrock said:
Apologies. I thought you were speaking specifically about CLASS pars, and made that clear in my answer. Most people I know call "standard times" just that. I cannot follow what point you were trying to make by conflating standard times with class pars. The two are very different.
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I don't see how they differ though Pru.

Take Topspeed..

when a horse rated 100 carrying 9-0 equals the RP standard time ..he calls the ground good..lets say that standard is for a mile and its 96.00

so

par time 100 horse = 96.00 on good going


when a horse rated 86 runs on the same surface..Topspeed has an expected time 1 second slower [13.7lbs per second]

so

par time 86 horse = 97.00

thats why standard times are par times imo..you can call them class pars or pars..but they are an expected time for a certain level of horse
 
J Alfred Prufrock said:
On day one, with a blank sheet, you assess the ability that the horses showed as you would whenever you have a blank sheet. You are not guided by some crude assumption of how well or how fast the winners will have run irrespective of the circumstances.

As I have said, I think this is a discussion for another thread.
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you still need a scale to start off with though Pru..thats very cryptic by the way :)
 
EC1 said:
totally agree...but one race that suggested he has run above his OHR is the older handicap..i got that race 7lbs slow..it may have been.. but on paper it looks a truly run job..so you wouldn't really want to be making it any slower which you would need to do to reduce CC's figure
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The other handicap certainly supports the idea of CC hitting at least the mid-120s. But that still leaves the 3yo handicap way too high.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
The other handicap certainly supports the idea of CC hitting at least the mid-120s. But that still leaves the 3yo handicap way too high.
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only 8lb high

remember on our 2000 guineas day - topspeed rated that 3yo handicap a lot faster than it was..when it was clearly a slow run race..this one at least does look fast run

its not unusual for 3yo handicappers to run above their marks

we certainly have a few horses to look at here anyway
 
EC1 said:
A couple of horses worth noting for the future

ANGUS NEWS..did well to rally to lead again in a very fast run race..the other prominent runners dropped well back apart from from Parisian Pyramid..who also might be worth watching..both these horses have run well against a pace bias and have both slipped down the weights so will be worth watching in the next couple of outings..particularly Angus.. if he gets a race where he can dictate

Genki also ran well from a high draw which looked a disadvantage..first 8 home drawn 10 or less..he is weighted up to hilt though at the moment so may need to step outside of handicaps..has run well here though against draw bias.
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Gareth..its this type of thing i speed rate for..not for actual speed figs as such...Parisian Pyramid did best of those with pace in a fast run race as noted...next time out was dropped down to 5f..a neg..and kept away from the pace..not tried much..then back over 6f yesterday was near the pace and won at 7/2.

I'll start a thread on speed figures but I doubt many will take part..people don't like discussing their methods though.
 
these are the 4f splits for the leader in the 3 races yesterday

50.8 BANGALORE GOLD
49.5 AGHADOE
49.0 CANFORD CLIFFS

This could explain why Bangladore's overall time wasn't par..guaging how slow the final time has been damaged is really hard but they haven't crawled early in that race...its possible that 7 or 8lbs slow is fair.

The 3yo handicap is interesting..the first two look well handicapped on the figures and the visual of them seems to suggest they were in hand of the rest...the pace was really strong here early..watch how the leader drops back and is legless after the early exertions..this is a strong run race

Its fair to say that the guineas was a very solid run race..if they took the first furlong in 13 seconds..to allow for standing start..then the next 3 furlongs were run at 12 seconds each..but leader was a length or two in front of them..again this is a solid run race.

its actually possible that the leader in the guineas and 3yo handicap..went too fast for even pace..especially when you see the effect on the leader of the handicap..i think its fair to say the leader in the guineas went over fast...this would make Bangladore's split look better because maybe 50 seconds was about even pace

I think looking at these that the 2nd in the handicap is well worth following..and that CC has run in the 126-128 area
 
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i'll throw in Shamwari Lodge's split..54.2

now thats what a jog and sprint looks like..4 seconds slower than Bangladores race at same point

i read elsewhere that some people belive you can pull back time lost early..this shows you why thats not possible

they ran the last 4f in 47.15 in this race..just shy of 12 seconds per furlong

so even though they saved lots of petrol its physically impossible to run any faster than about the 12 second furlong..

thats why when you get behind in a slow run race its a physical impossibility to pull back too many lengths lost..a horse would have to run say 11.5 for those final furlongs to get near the leaders
 
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chroniclandlord said:
Would those figures see Steinbeck and Xtension running to something around their Dewhurst marks?
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the figures just give us a bit more insight into how the two halves of each race panned out...

I think Xtension is telling us a lot about CC in all 3 races they met...maybe about Steinbeck too.

in the coventry he was beaten similarily to yesterday..its a very interesting comparison..and sort of confirms the 126-128 speed figure for CC yesterday..as CC's figure in the Coventry was on my figures a 130 ish speed figure

Xtension is a very fair marker I think

I think CC will beat Makfi in a truly run mile if they meet at Ascot
 
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EC1 said:
he leader in the guineas and 3yo handicap..went too fast for even pace..especially when you see the effect on the leader of the handicap..i think its fair to say the leader in the guineas went over fast...this would make Bangladore's split look better because maybe 50 seconds was about even pace
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That thought crossed my mind yesterday. Free Judgement almost certainly improved markedly for the better ground and step up to a mile, but he surely also had the run of the race as well.

I thought Steinbeck ran a pretty promising race; quite free in the early stages and Murtagh seemed anxious to hold onto him as long as he possibly could.
 
here is a crude..but possible way of putting a figure to Bangladores race..the key race here really for rating others from.

its fair to say that 49.7 to 50.2 seconds is around the time for even pace..the 3yo handicap was too fast and so was the guineas..B's race maybe a touch slow...seems a fair stab?

so..using Shamwari Lodge's race..the overall time figure was 35lbs slow..so if we say that each of those seconds slower at halfway ....4 of them..has damaged the final speed figure by 9lbs per second..then Bangladore's race halfway time is less than a second too slow and so has possibly damaged final time rating by 7/8 points...that would be fair as suggested by my calcs to start with as well

this isn't scientific obviously...but there is some logic there..and would make CC a 128 ish time..making the 2nd + 3rd very interesting next time.
 
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trackside528 said:
That thought crossed my mind yesterday. Free Judgement almost certainly improved markedly for the better ground and step up to a mile, but he surely also had the run of the race as well.

I thought Steinbeck ran a pretty promising race; quite free in the early stages and Murtagh seemed anxious to hold onto him as long as he possibly could.
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CC also had run of race..but they have still produced big figures..imo

having the run of the race shouldn't really demean an effort..it just shows a horse in its true light

in this case..pretty good
 
EC1 said:
its actually possible that the leader in the guineas and 3yo handicap..went too fast for even pace..especially when you see the effect on the leader of the handicap..i think its fair to say the leader in the guineas went over fast...this would make Bangladore's split look better because maybe 50 seconds was about even pace
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To the naked eye live it certainly looked like they went off far too fast in the Guineas, then they tried to inject some pace between 4½ out and 3½ out. I suspect this exaggerated the finishing runs of the winner and FJ but I still think it was a good race. The overall time of the race isn't an issue for me.

What I look for on days like these are fast times in other races. I chose not to believe the very fast time I had for Oasis Dancer at Newmarket but Balducci fair franked the form yesterday and I think I'm right in saying something else franked it recently. The other 3yo race the same day was even faster.
 
Desert Orchid said:
To the naked eye live it certainly looked like they went off far too fast in the Guineas, then they tried to inject some pace between 4½ out and 3½ out. I suspect this exaggerated the finishing runs of the winner and FJ but I still think it was a good race. The overall time of the race isn't an issue for me.

What I look for on days like these are fast times in other races. I chose not to believe the very fast time I had for Oasis Dancer at Newmarket but Balducci fair franked the form yesterday and I think I'm right in saying something else franked it recently. The other 3yo race the same day was even faster.
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just because form has been franked it doesn't make it a true run race though DO..look at the horse comments in that handicap at Newmarket..horses pulling early...then look at Shamwari's race yesterday..horses pulling..a common theme in slow early paced races.

both Jack My Boy + tartan gighas race showed the overall time of OD's race to be below par as well.
 
EC1 said:
only 8lb high
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Again: Start The Party recorded a time 2.27 seconds slower than Canford Cliffs. Same weight, same age, same course.

2.27s = 13.62 lengths = 27.24 lbs

If Canford Cliffs has run to 126, that puts Start The Party on 98 at a minimum.

Start The Party failed to win the handicap yesterday off a mark of 80.

If he ran to 98 in doing so, he must be the unluckiest handicapper in history to have at least 18lbs in hand over his rivals, yet run into another horse with even more in hand.

And how unlucky does that make the third Goldarover? A stone better than his handicap mark, yet could only manage third.

Enjoy Your Life? A stone in hand and couldn't even place.
 
i'll leave you with it Gareth..you work how you want i'll work my way..i been through all this last night

maybe Pru or Do or someone else would like to go through it with you again.
 
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