The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)
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Desert Orchid
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EC1
On a break
think you missed point DO...I already said the handicap was fastest for class..ages ago....thats not what he is saying..he is saying that CC has run a speed figure of just 111 or something..because he uses one method..which i don't use..but you do..so maybe you can give him the speed figure he wants.
Desert Orchid
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At the end of the day, I can't give CC a time rating for yesterday because I don't have Standard Times for Irish courses.
What I could do would be to work out a form rating for winner of the fastest other race of the meeting, probably the 3yo handicap on the basis of this thread, get a time rating that matches the form rating and apply the relative going allowance to the Guineas based on the time differential.
It would probably give me something very close to what my own methods would otherwise come up with. Then if subsequent events show that the form rating undervalues the 3yo handicap I can increase the figures across the board.
What I could do would be to work out a form rating for winner of the fastest other race of the meeting, probably the 3yo handicap on the basis of this thread, get a time rating that matches the form rating and apply the relative going allowance to the Guineas based on the time differential.
It would probably give me something very close to what my own methods would otherwise come up with. Then if subsequent events show that the form rating undervalues the 3yo handicap I can increase the figures across the board.
EC1
On a break
you only need one standard DO...mines 100.00 for the mile here..the other races aren't relevant as they were on the faster stand side or round course
EC1
On a break
i'm feeling generous..here are all of them
60.35f
73.16f
77.46.3f
85.77f
100.08f
113.49f
127.010f
134.110.5f
155.912f
you ant done bad there DO.you wouldn't get steam of most folks pee on racing fiorums..its all such a secret you see :lol:
60.35f
73.16f
77.46.3f
85.77f
100.08f
113.49f
127.010f
134.110.5f
155.912f
you ant done bad there DO.you wouldn't get steam of most folks pee on racing fiorums..its all such a secret you see :lol:
EC1
On a break
The argument here has been hugely simplified by not having to worry about standard times
the problem is...you are trying to work one way..i work another..and DO will probably work another
i'll just ask you this..on 2000 guineas day our guineas was run just 1.59 seconds quicker than a jog and sprint 3yo handicap over same distance..that handicap race is clearly a slow run race when compared to other races on card and when reading the race comments..its probably available to watch somewhere as well.
Topspeed came up with a 120 for Makfi..you never questioned that..but here we have a fast run 3yo handicap..and the guineas is over 2 seconds faster..but now its a query?
a little puzzling..somehow CC is less than Makfi..but CC's race is faster comparitiively to others on card tha Makfi's was..but 120 was ok for that?
Harbinger
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I don't remember giving a time rating for Makfi?
Based on Oasis Dancer receiving an OR of 102 for his win in that handicap, Makfi could only get a maximum time figure of 113 (edit: 119!) for his Guineas win. That's ignoring the evidence from the rest of the card, and assuming that Oasis Dancer's race was truly run - neither of which are likely to increase Makfi's rating.
That roughly jibes with your reading of the race, right?
Based on Oasis Dancer receiving an OR of 102 for his win in that handicap, Makfi could only get a maximum time figure of 113 (edit: 119!) for his Guineas win. That's ignoring the evidence from the rest of the card, and assuming that Oasis Dancer's race was truly run - neither of which are likely to increase Makfi's rating.
That roughly jibes with your reading of the race, right?
EC1
On a break
yes..I got Makfi on 116 incl wfa..may have juggled a bit since..not sure
has topspeed yet put figures up for yesterday?
could you have a look and see if they use one going allowance for all the races..if they do its just poor..it will make all the mile races run farside very slow...
I wonder what Timeform give CC
I might be wrong here..but I believe Timeform use 20lbs per second at a mile Gareth.
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EC1
On a break
Gareth
I'll highlight something
that 3yo handicap on our guineas card goes back a few years..it did used to be a 0-90 race ..they may have swapped it round days wise a few times...but..a couple of years ago i worked out the average differences between that race and the guineas..over 10 years I think it was...it averaged that the 0-90 handicap was 2 seconds shy of the guineas..and most years in those averages the guineas was pretty truly run.
that 2 seconds difference is constant between ..0-90 handicaps and true run avergae G1's..I don't mean superstar G1's. I did the same with a few other courses where distances where comparible
this year that 0-90 is now a 0-100..but..as it was slowly run it was basically timewise a 0-90..and thats why Makfi's time is shy of the average winner
but no matter how you work your speed figures out there will be 2 seconds between these two class of race.
it could be argued that you shouldn't just put them alongside each other because its not linear..different pace issues within each race.
so actually treating that 2 seconds as if it was an extension of another race can't be done..ie your example of slotting in one horse from one race to another.
I believe Timeform get round this by allowing 20lb per second..so your 0-90 will have a horse carrying 9-0 same as Guineas..with an OHR of 83 as the top weight is 9-7 in 3yo races normally..the two seconds is worth 40lb on their scale so that makes an average Timeform figure of about 123 for guineas
like i said. i believe its 20lb..Pru may tell us
if a G1 horse beats a truly run par 0-90 by 2.5+ seconds its some horse usually...if a G1 horse beats a fast run 0-90 by 2 seconds..like CC has....its pretty decent again
I'll highlight something
that 3yo handicap on our guineas card goes back a few years..it did used to be a 0-90 race ..they may have swapped it round days wise a few times...but..a couple of years ago i worked out the average differences between that race and the guineas..over 10 years I think it was...it averaged that the 0-90 handicap was 2 seconds shy of the guineas..and most years in those averages the guineas was pretty truly run.
that 2 seconds difference is constant between ..0-90 handicaps and true run avergae G1's..I don't mean superstar G1's. I did the same with a few other courses where distances where comparible
this year that 0-90 is now a 0-100..but..as it was slowly run it was basically timewise a 0-90..and thats why Makfi's time is shy of the average winner
but no matter how you work your speed figures out there will be 2 seconds between these two class of race.
it could be argued that you shouldn't just put them alongside each other because its not linear..different pace issues within each race.
so actually treating that 2 seconds as if it was an extension of another race can't be done..ie your example of slotting in one horse from one race to another.
I believe Timeform get round this by allowing 20lb per second..so your 0-90 will have a horse carrying 9-0 same as Guineas..with an OHR of 83 as the top weight is 9-7 in 3yo races normally..the two seconds is worth 40lb on their scale so that makes an average Timeform figure of about 123 for guineas
like i said. i believe its 20lb..Pru may tell us
if a G1 horse beats a truly run par 0-90 by 2.5+ seconds its some horse usually...if a G1 horse beats a fast run 0-90 by 2 seconds..like CC has....its pretty decent again
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EC1
On a break
i'll just add
if you use 0.07sec per lb at a mile..as most do..you will give an average true run g1 a figure of about only 112..you will never break 118 probably
it doesn't work..that 2 seconds can't be treated like that because both races are separate events...ie one race is 2 seconds overall faster so its just a 28lb better horse..that 2 seconds superiority has probably mainly come within the last 4 furlongs of the race..can't really explain what i mean i don't think
if you use 0.07sec per lb at a mile..as most do..you will give an average true run g1 a figure of about only 112..you will never break 118 probably
it doesn't work..that 2 seconds can't be treated like that because both races are separate events...ie one race is 2 seconds overall faster so its just a 28lb better horse..that 2 seconds superiority has probably mainly come within the last 4 furlongs of the race..can't really explain what i mean i don't think
EC1
On a break
i'll try and explain more
check out the split times..of the handicap and the guineas..both races the leaders went similar speeds for first 4..i'll bet that the winner of both races were in similar positions..not checked
so..in the last 4 furlongs CC has took 2 seconds out of the handicap winner..thats why you can't say its only 28lbs worth of superiority..actually calculating what it takes to rip two seconds off another horse in just 4 furlongs is quite difficult using a poundage system
check out the split times..of the handicap and the guineas..both races the leaders went similar speeds for first 4..i'll bet that the winner of both races were in similar positions..not checked
so..in the last 4 furlongs CC has took 2 seconds out of the handicap winner..thats why you can't say its only 28lbs worth of superiority..actually calculating what it takes to rip two seconds off another horse in just 4 furlongs is quite difficult using a poundage system
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EC1
On a break
i think if you check sectionals in US you will find that most early pace to halfway is quite similar bewteen classes..in even pace races...yes higher class horses go just that stride quicker early..but most part of superiority is the last half of the race..its not just an isolated incident..again this highlights the thinking that linear 2 secs is worth 28lb just can't apply..its not representaive of the gulf between two horses with overall times differing by 2 seconds..2 seconds is some superiority over the last part of a race
Harbinger
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On Good ground or faster, 1 second = 6 lengths.
Over a mile, 1 length = 2 lbs
So: 1 second = 12 lbs
Or: 1 lb = 0.083 seconds
The Newmarket 3yo handicap has only been run on 2000 Guineas day for the last six years. If we ignore all other races on the card, and assume that the handicap winner ran to his new official rating (as published the following week), that would give the last six Guineas winners a maximum time figure of:
119 Makfi (OR: 122)
121 Sea The Stars (OR: 121)
110 Henrythenavigator (OR: 121)
127 Cockney Rebel (OR: 120)
118 George Washington (OR: 124)
118 Footstepsinthesand (OR: 118)
Again, bear in mind that if we took into account evidence from other races, we might have to revise these downward (but almost certainly not significantly upward). With that disclaimed, I really don't see them as controversial. Sea The Stars and FITS are dead on. Makfi is 3lb slow. Cockney Rebel was potentially under-rated by his OR, but that might be one that comes down. George Washington looks potentially over-rated by his OR, and Henrythenavigator's race looks like it wasn't truly run (and would explain why something like Moynahan got so relatively close).
EC1
On a break
I'll have to find the spreadsheet I used..I'm sure I used more..from the 90's?..i'll check em.
I don't use future handicap marks..I use the current ones..future ones imo are misleading in the fact that some will be incorrect..ie too much and horse can't win off it. For example..this year the winner Oasis Dancer [OHR 93 in the race ran in Irish guineas and was beaten 16 lengths..so has ran below that mark there. The 2nd came out and just won off a 3lb higher mark..the 4th has come out and was a beaten fav off same mark. I doubt anyone would use future marks Gareth when making figures ..one reason is they don't actully rate off a wnner per se..if OD had recorded a fast time pointing to being better than the OHR then it would have moved out of the area for calculating the tracxk speed and would get a higher speed figure anyway.
I am talking generally about Class C and G1's..not just Newmarket guineas ones....the average is 2 seconds different when both races are truly run..and in an average 0-90 the 83 horse will carry 9-0...I highlight the 9-0 horse as when doing trad speed figures weights are brought to that level and its a fair compariosn against non handicaps as well when looking at bare times.
I've not checked all of them yet - but the 3yo handicap won by Dunelight in GW's year was slow by about 11lbs...thats confirmed by 3 other races on the card. That would make GW about 11 less than you have it.
I'll check these out Gareth..but I'm talking in general here...you can't use 12 or 14lb as a linear measure to assess the difference 2 seconds makes between two separate races..as pointed out..most of that superiority is in 2nd half of race..thats why I belive that T use 20lb per second...to allow for this.
I don't use future handicap marks..I use the current ones..future ones imo are misleading in the fact that some will be incorrect..ie too much and horse can't win off it. For example..this year the winner Oasis Dancer [OHR 93 in the race ran in Irish guineas and was beaten 16 lengths..so has ran below that mark there. The 2nd came out and just won off a 3lb higher mark..the 4th has come out and was a beaten fav off same mark. I doubt anyone would use future marks Gareth when making figures ..one reason is they don't actully rate off a wnner per se..if OD had recorded a fast time pointing to being better than the OHR then it would have moved out of the area for calculating the tracxk speed and would get a higher speed figure anyway.
I am talking generally about Class C and G1's..not just Newmarket guineas ones....the average is 2 seconds different when both races are truly run..and in an average 0-90 the 83 horse will carry 9-0...I highlight the 9-0 horse as when doing trad speed figures weights are brought to that level and its a fair compariosn against non handicaps as well when looking at bare times.
I've not checked all of them yet - but the 3yo handicap won by Dunelight in GW's year was slow by about 11lbs...thats confirmed by 3 other races on the card. That would make GW about 11 less than you have it.
I'll check these out Gareth..but I'm talking in general here...you can't use 12 or 14lb as a linear measure to assess the difference 2 seconds makes between two separate races..as pointed out..most of that superiority is in 2nd half of race..thats why I belive that T use 20lb per second...to allow for this.
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Desert Orchid
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I work it at 2.25lbs per length at a mile.
EC1
On a break
checked spreadsheet..I must have used 1000g + 2000g when comparing..I've listed times but not the horses..there used to be an 8f handicap race on 1000 day
I haven't just used this meeting when i did all my calcs obviously..I did lots of class comparisons and the concensus is that 2 seconds is the difference between 0-90 handicaps and G1 races..average fields but truly run.
I've checked the cards for these?:
119 Makfi (OR: 122)
121 Sea The Stars (OR: 121)
110 Henrythenavigator (OR: 121)
127 Cockney Rebel (OR: 120)
118 George Washington (OR: 124)
118 Footstepsinthesand (OR: 118)
when taking into account the other races
Makfi - OD's race 6 slow = 113..confirmed by two other races
Sea The Stars - Photographic 6 slow = 115..confirmed 2 other races
HenryThe Navigator - Duntulm 2 fast = 112..confirmed by most of races
Cockney Rebel - Aqmaar 6 slow = 121...most races on card confirm
George Washington - Dunelight - 11 slow..109..confirmed by 2 other races
Footstepinthesand - Notnowcato - 4 slow...114..confirmed by 2 other races
these are all too low aren't they?..the reason for that is because you can't use two different racetimes and treat them like one big race
You have to use a different mindset to just alloting 12 or 14 lb a second for two separate events..go back to the sectionals..the 2 second superiority is mainly being asserted in the last 4 furlongs..that is the bit you need to assess..and its more than 12/14 per second
Like I said..you won't get many horses breaking 118 .on your speed figures if you use weight adjusting methods and 12/14 lb per second based off OHR ratings..because there aren't many G1's that run 2.5+ seconds faster per mile than a 0-90.
Those that can run near or faster than the 2.5 seconds..like Cockney Rebel..are a little bit higher rated than 121 I think..CC has run faster than the 2.5 because the 0-90 race he ran against was faster than class.
CC is a very fast winner..imo
I don't know how others here calculate their figures..coz its a big secret like
..but I know what I've learned through looking at lots of past races.
I've laid my views out now Gareth..I question the whole 12/14 lb per second thing..and I've clearly shown why.
I'll let someone else come on here now and show how they overcome this..I know how I do it.
I haven't just used this meeting when i did all my calcs obviously..I did lots of class comparisons and the concensus is that 2 seconds is the difference between 0-90 handicaps and G1 races..average fields but truly run.
I've checked the cards for these?:
119 Makfi (OR: 122)
121 Sea The Stars (OR: 121)
110 Henrythenavigator (OR: 121)
127 Cockney Rebel (OR: 120)
118 George Washington (OR: 124)
118 Footstepsinthesand (OR: 118)
when taking into account the other races
Makfi - OD's race 6 slow = 113..confirmed by two other races
Sea The Stars - Photographic 6 slow = 115..confirmed 2 other races
HenryThe Navigator - Duntulm 2 fast = 112..confirmed by most of races
Cockney Rebel - Aqmaar 6 slow = 121...most races on card confirm
George Washington - Dunelight - 11 slow..109..confirmed by 2 other races
Footstepinthesand - Notnowcato - 4 slow...114..confirmed by 2 other races
these are all too low aren't they?..the reason for that is because you can't use two different racetimes and treat them like one big race
You have to use a different mindset to just alloting 12 or 14 lb a second for two separate events..go back to the sectionals..the 2 second superiority is mainly being asserted in the last 4 furlongs..that is the bit you need to assess..and its more than 12/14 per second
Like I said..you won't get many horses breaking 118 .on your speed figures if you use weight adjusting methods and 12/14 lb per second based off OHR ratings..because there aren't many G1's that run 2.5+ seconds faster per mile than a 0-90.
Those that can run near or faster than the 2.5 seconds..like Cockney Rebel..are a little bit higher rated than 121 I think..CC has run faster than the 2.5 because the 0-90 race he ran against was faster than class.
CC is a very fast winner..imo
I don't know how others here calculate their figures..coz its a big secret like
..but I know what I've learned through looking at lots of past races.I've laid my views out now Gareth..I question the whole 12/14 lb per second thing..and I've clearly shown why.
I'll let someone else come on here now and show how they overcome this..I know how I do it.
EC1
On a break
which makes 2 seconds 26lb
but that isn't the real difference in poundage between two separate 8f races with a 2 second difference in ther times is it?
thats the whole crux
like I said..I'd like to see a few others on here open up about how they work before I say anymore.
EC1
On a break
Harbinger
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18/distance in furlongs, isn't it?
That's what your ratings work around, which is fine. As long as it's all consistent right?
Similarly, if I'm keying off the official ratings I'm going to use the poundage which the official handicapper uses, which is ~2lbs per length at a mile.