The 2016 Betfair Hurdle Newbury Sat Feb 13

Lots of rumours about War Sound and his entry in the CH - he will surely have to have produced a double Rooster Booster improvement to be competitive as he was only 140 when he last ran . If he has improved a lot he could be thrown in here anyway off 148 without coming within hailing distance of Faugheen
 
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I reckoned War Sound was just a bookies' put up job designed to suck in the lemmings. I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't even the main hope from within the stable.

I did figures for a lot of the entries the other night, not knowing when the next declaration stage was. I could have saved myself a wee bit of time.

Thanks for putting this up, DG.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I reckoned War Sound was just a bookies' put up job designed to suck in the lemmings. I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't even the main hope from within the stable.

I did figures for a lot of the entries the other night, not knowing when the next declaration stage was. I could have saved myself a wee bit of time.

Thanks for putting this up, DG.
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Possibly DO but Hobbs not normally the type to think his geese are swans .
 
Yes. I've just checked and noted that WS is the only stable entry to have a CH entry. But he also has an Arkle entry and when he won the Swinton the trainer said he'd be put away for the Chepstow race (2.5m) and then go novice chasing.

He'll need to be CH class to give my 33/1 bet (nowhere near that now, btw) the weight and, realistically, the best he could hope for would be a minor place in the CH. I don't imagine the bookies have taken any real money for it.

I took another 33/1 shot (ew) today because it will be value on the day, assuming it runs.

Rayvin Black looks much improved this season and even though it is not at all hard to pick holes in the form with TNO the other day he will be officially 3lbs well in on the day (unless ORs are adjusted again in the interim), which will be enough for the bookies to shorten him once they twig, giving the opporchancity to lay off at least the win part.
 
He's been raised 3lbs for that run on a LH track, despite looking like wanting to head for the stables. They might think about varying the headgear/tack next time now they've seen that.
 
won't win a betfair even if they sow some wings on it DO never mind headgear..its a RH performer ..if it does a trick like it did at Haydock in that egg+spoon race it will be look up and find its lost 20 lengths in a betfair..that haydock form is worth about as much as a Robert maxwell pension scheme

do you really fancy it to win a betfair?
 
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EC1 said:
do you really fancy it to win a betfair?
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No.

I don't fancy anything to get near my other bet.

But RB will be officially well in based on his form on a LH track and I expect will go off at about 16/1 and I expect to have laid off the win portion of the bet at about that price. If I can lay off the place part at about 3/1 I'll have a no-risk chance of a return.
 
a no risk chance of no return..seems pointless to me but what do i know?

you must have had a dollop on your main bet now at juicy prices..what actually is it?
 
I‘ve backed Modus at 10-1. A bit obvious, but hoping he’ll do a MTOY. 139 looks fair if you can forgive the crimbo Taunton run in the bog & fog. Don’t thinks that’s too hard to do. His bumper form was top class & he cruised all over Charmix at the Hennessey meeting (Barry only got serious in the last 100yrds) but will have a 6lb pull if they both turn up

My other one against the field will be what looks to be the Hobbs 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] string, Sternrubin. Love the way he runs, super tough, course form & even up 8lb from the Ladbroke will carry some of my cash
 
EC1 said:
a no risk chance of no return..seems pointless to me but what do i know?
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I think there has to be a fair chance of its being placed. It has form in big-field handicaps, is apparently improving and seemingly put up the best performance of its career so far last time on a LH track despite showing signs of quirkiness.

The bottom line is I'm trying to get as many on my side with as little risk as possible. Isn't that what bookies do?


EC1 said:
you must have had a dollop on your main bet now at juicy prices..what actually is it?
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You should know. I told you the week the entries were published, when it was 33/1 in a few places.
 
EC1 said:
:lol:

bit like Hendo forgetting to enter Binocular for the CH:)
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Henderson did enter Binocular, but the horse couldn't run due to them finding some Lemsip in his water-pail, the week before the race.

:whistle:

For the avoidance of doubt, and to articulate the difference between good and great, Hurricane Fly laughed at Binocular when they met a few weeks later at Punchestown.

:ninja:
 
Grasshopper said:
Henderson did enter Binocular, but the horse couldn't run due to them finding some Lemsip in his water-pail, the week before the race.

:whistle:

For the avoidance of doubt, and to articulate the difference between good and great, Hurricane Fly laughed at Binocular when they met a few weeks later at Punchestown.

:ninja:
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i forgot:)

but with you around to correct me ..i'll be ok:)
 
Talking of the Hobbs runners I was very impressed by Sternrubin - although others may have a good pull at the weights with him from his winning runs he strikes me as improving at a rate of knots .
 
Goodwood Mirage only got to the first hurdle for Jonjo last year hopefully Mad Jack Mytton will get a bit further
It's either this or the Country for him and tis would be fav but no firm decision will be made until 5 or 6 days before the Betfair.
That of course can be said about every horse in the race.

MJM has gone up since finishing 2nd to Soltice Star when he was completing a 4 timers giving him nearly 2 stone.

Rated 140 and set to carry 10st9lbs it's good racing weight but you can probably add 7 to 10lbs to that when others are withdrawn

If he ends up here with 11st5lbs but was kept for the County he'd end up carrying that and maybe a bit more anyway.

Big difference is this is worth twice as much to the winner.

Not a race to be putting all your eggs in one basket but he should be a good EW price if he runs.
 
Solstice Star absolutely pi$$ed up again which gives Mad Jack a bit of a boost.:) If the fooker sends him.

As for Solstice Star he's entered to go again in a couple of days and if he goes and wins he will certainly get into the County Hurdle yet only 1 bookmaker quotes him for the race at 20/1..interesting to see what they decide.
 
Good to see old schoolers like Ardross, DO etc back in intelligent debate. Pity we can't find Bar the Bull, Steve M, Krizon, Brian H and get them back again.
 
Ardross said:
Talking of the Hobbs runners I was very impressed by Sternrubin - although others may have a good pull at the weights with him from his winning runs he strikes me as improving at a rate of knots .
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While I'm pretty confident about John Constable, Sternrubin is probably the one I fear most, precisely because his curve might be one of the steepest in the race, apart from JC's.

However, going back to the Gerry Fielden [when Sternrubin beat JC], Sternrubin was allowed several lengths at the off and then allowed to increase his lead. The others clearly thought he'd gone too fast and John Constable was confidently ridden to beat the rest with the jockey assuming Sternrubin would stop coming up the straight. Good horses were strung out like washing that day yet JC had been allowed to drift out ridiculously in the betting. Obviously there wasn't a penny for him. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume they thought he wasn't 100% ready that day and I expect him to improve a good 10lbs for the race. That and a 9lbs pull (or whatever it is) with Sternrubin should really be more than enough to see him home in front.
 
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