The 2016 Betfair Hurdle Newbury Sat Feb 13

Desert Orchid said:
While I'm pretty confident about John Constable, Sternrubin is probably the one I fear most, precisely because his curve might be one of the steepest in the race, apart from JC's.

However, going back to the Gerry Fielden [when Sternrubin beat JC], Sternrubin was allowed several lengths at the off and then allowed to increase his lead. The others clearly thought he'd gone too fast and John Constable was confidently ridden to beat the rest with the jockey assuming Sternrubin would stop coming up the straight. Good horses were strung out like washing that day yet JC had been allowed to drift out ridiculously in the betting. Obviously there wasn't a penny for him. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume they thought he wasn't 100% ready that day and I expect him to improve a good 10lbs for the race. That and a 9lbs pull (or whatever it is) with Sternrubin should really be more than enough to see him home in front.
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I must go and watch the Gerry Feilden again on RUK but it is a fair point .
 
an capall said:
Good to see old schoolers like Ardross, DO etc back in intelligent debate. Pity we can't find Bar the Bull, Steve M, Krizon, Brian H and get them back again.
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Lord H is planning on being at Leopardstown at the weekend according to his FB timeline
 
Betfair Racing now paying first five ew including ante post, not a clue how much you can get on though
 
Grasshopper said:
DO has reason to be chuffed.
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In the sense that my initial assertion was that JC should really be 5/1, yes. :) And having taken 33/1, yes again. :lol:

Obviously it's gratifying having got 33/1 about a 16/1 shot that now looks destined to go off shorter, but every aspect of my being is looking forward to being able to lay off the win portion of the bet at a fraction of the price and maybe even the place portion at much shorter.

I also backed Rayvin Black last week at 33/1 purely - and I stress purely - because if he lines up he'll be 3lbs well in compared to current ORs and is likely to be ridden advantageously (not guaranteed with JC) and I genuinely cannot see him going off at half those odds on the day.

I've no doubt by the time the race comes round I'll like something else (probably whatever Gary Moore runs) so am hoping ultimately to have an advantageous portfolio going into the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the sense that my initial assertion was that JC should really be 5/1, yes. :) And having taken 33/1, yes again. :lol:

Obviously it's gratifying having got 33/1 about a 16/1 shot that now looks destined to go off shorter, but every aspect of my being is looking forward to being able to lay off the win portion of the bet at a fraction of the price and maybe even the place portion at much shorter.

I also backed Rayvin Black last week at 33/1 purely - and I stress purely - because if he lines up he'll be 3lbs well in compared to current ORs and is likely to be ridden advantageously (not guaranteed with JC) and I genuinely cannot see him going off at half those odds on the day.

I've no doubt by the time the race comes round I'll like something else (probably whatever Gary Moore runs) so am hoping ultimately to have an advantageous portfolio going into the race.
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won't rayvin black get a penalty when it wins today:D
 
EC1 said:
won't rayvin black get a penalty when it wins today:D
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Not having the form stuff with me here in Spain, I only discovered this morning that RB runs today. That's a bit of a bummer. I suspect he won't even run next week now.
 
Two races on soft ground six days apart? He can win the County no problem off revised mark.
 
SlimChance said:
Two races on soft ground six days apart? He can win the County no problem off revised mark.
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didnt have a ahrd race last week,
7 days is enough for me,
in the county will carry a stone more,
good ground unknown.

they have After Rain and Henry Higgins for the County


Once Gerathycheck the form of Modus it will be easy for him to persuade JP to run this one.
 
9/4 I had in mind but there will be attractive betting without him on Saturday. That said, my money is on but my plan is to lay off both parts of the bet before Saturday because of the ground.
 
I think Sternrubin will do a Make a stand on them. The run in the ladbroke defied belief..he led at an over strong pace..even renowned pace setter Rayvin Black couldn't keep up..he was well beaten 40 lengths in the end..thats where Sternrubin should have finished too. Finishing % of that race was a slow 92.7% confirming what was clear visually..a ferocious gallop

Only a very smart horse can set a pace like that..and even be within 30 lengths of the winner at the end..instead Sternrubin was still there..and fought back bravely.

This one is a good few lengths better than his new mark based on that win and can lead these a merry dance. A solid bet even in a race like.
 
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I still can't see Mullins running a young horse twice in a week on bad ground when he can pick his race at the festival.
 
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