The 2016 Betfair Hurdle Newbury Sat Feb 13

going back to franking:)..sternrubin beat fellow front runner rayvin black 40 lengths....look what rayvin black has done since:)

Euro..Sternrubin won at Newbury over C/D in soft ground..difference was..jock brought him back to the field after being well clear t0 make sure he didn't get mark hammered
 
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Grasshopper said:
You're so full of **** sometimes, EC1.
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what..you don't do franking like that?...you don't look at what others do in a similar pace fashion?..sternrubbin used more petrol as a known marker did in a race..and buried him. ..looks like a solid frank to me when you look at RB's form rating now
 
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don't start???... after that post you just made,,,you know..your attitude towards me stinks Grasshopper..there is no need for it

the point i've made is perfectly valid..pace v pace comparison makes a lot more sense than some of the stuff i read on here that gets no such response from you

rayvin black is a 149 hoss now..sternrubin beat him 40 doing exactly the same run style..difference is..stern has so much in hand..he keeps going when others should drop back who try to match him..RB was on a favoured right hand track too

looks to me like i have spotted something..no one else appears to have taken into account..the pace damage RB suffered..and yet Stern didn't suffer it..and we know how good RB is.

when a horse can win after that pace battle..its in front of its mark

looks like a good observation by me..but thats the problem for you..its me who made it..and you seem to be very keen to jump on every post i make recently..what the f00k is up with you?..is it because i made a case for vautour not staying re the kg figures..that was more analysis no other pundit or poster has spotted. i'd have thought a forum would appreciate info like that,,it appears not

at end of day..if my input is not required here..its no problem not to post in future if its unwelcome..i'll just read..its not an issue for me
 
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If the argument is about pace, then why mention "franking" at all, given it's apparrently "myth" (your words)?

My attitude towards you stinks?

You have a short memory, pal - it can only be a couple of days since I referred to use as a forum trooper. You are obviously in one of your "disagreement is disrespect" moods, and as per previous when things have gone this way, I have no intention of indulging your fragile ego.

Get back to me when when this episode of temporary paranoia is over.
 
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EC1 said:
i made a case for vautour not staying re the kg figures..that was more analysis no other pundit or poster has spotted [\QUOTE].

Not scrapping for an argument but some think Vautour won't get home on back of KG run. So I don't think you have invented the wheel. Look, not a criticism, just an observation.
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Frankel said:
but some think Vautour won't get home on back of KG run. So I don't think you have invented the wheel. Look, not a criticism, just an observation.
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anyone can say something..it takes seconds to do so..i've put up something to back that up..as i usually do..its a waste of time doing so though really

like i said on other thread,,you best just to stick to 1 line posts it seems.."this will win..i've had me balls on"..is probably more appreciated than actually backing a view up.
 
EC1 said:
anyone can say something..it takes seconds to do so..i've put up something to back that up..as i usually do..its a waste of time doing so though really

like i said on other thread,,you best just to stick to 1 line posts it seems.."this will win..i've had me balls on"..is probably more appreciated than actually backing a view up.
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All info is welcome. Nothing is bomb proof though whether it be time/speed figures/ visual impression. None are less important either as some use different methods.
It's not a waste of time EC, keep up the good work. :ninja:

I'll pass on 2nd paragraph.
 
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Don't think that's any different from what we expected from John Constable's running plans.
 
SlimChance said:
Don't think that's any different from what we expected from John Constable's running plans.
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really?..well no one has mentioned it on this thread,,but seeing as you all know..i'll remove the post then..no point sticking a link up if eveyone knows it

no prob fro me..i ain't backed it
 
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Plenty of people, including myself, have posted recently about how much your contribution to the forum is valued.........so stop being such a fu*cking drama-queen.
 
Anyone reading the thread will be aware that there are two key imponderables right now.

1. The running plans of Blazer who could have two stone in hand
2. The going

We'll be a lot wiser on Thursday.
 
I strongly suspect Sternrubin is Paul Kealy's headline bet in the Weekender, given he's gone blue across the board (again).

That's a shame, as I was really hoping he would alight upon JC and see the latter shorten up.

As for Sternrubin's Ascot form, while I'm always anxious to keep EC1's observations very much to the fore I just wonder if he'll be allowed the uncontested lead he's had the last twice.

At Newbury nobody went after him and he built up a long lead before being allowed a long breather. He looked in trouble two out that day but stayed on well. I thought it was partly a fine ride by Johnston and partly woeful judgment by the others.

He didn't get quite the same easy lead at Ascot but neither Rayvin Black nor Three Kingdoms could stay with him. I could be swayed by the extended distance RB was beaten were it not for the fact that Three Kingdoms wasn't beaten anywhere near as far and quite a few of the group who race just behind the pace were still there late on. Very few actually came from the back so it might well have been a weird race made weird by Sternrubin's tactics as Johnston again managed to get him filled up again.

I am hugely respectful of Sternrubin but I will in all honesty be gutted if John Constable can't beat him, notwithstanding my reservations about the ground.

It may well simply be that nothing will be able to go his early pace - a la Make A Stand - but I can't see them giving him quite so much rope either.

A bit of me also reckons that as a 142 OR horse [after that Ascot run] he must be short of top class therefore surely something can be ridden to beat him. JC, eg, will be off 139 but he looked for all the world to me like a 150+ animal at Newbury when clearly not expected to win.
 
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edgt said:
The Irish handicapper has only given him 12lb. Connections are said to believe he is a 140 + type .
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The UK handicapper will give him at least 18lbs in that case.

I can't see him winning the County off his revised mark. 126 (old mark) plus 18 (min) will put him on 144. Nowadays you need to be 12lbs better than your mark just to run second in a County so he'd need to be up to hitting 156 just to go close. Not impossible but not likely either.
 
They may strike while the iron is hot with him unless they know something we don't. If they thought they had a 150+ horse they'd wait, otherwise they may use his mark now for what is a very valuable handicap.

I definitely wouldn't run him in the County if I thought he was a 140's horse because he won't win, and I'd say he'd be a couple of pounds higher at 144 when the British handicapper hands him his mark Suny. However I wouldn't run him this weekend either.

The race for him in my opinion is the Conditionals at the Festival where he could be on a really nice mark stepped up to a trip that should suit, and where his mark would be perfect. I didn't particularly notice, but did anyone else notice his action at the weekend? I'm presuming its not particularly round, which would be unusual for one of Willie's? I'd be surprised if he didn't at least get an entry.

I'd also be interested to see how DO and EC rated him.
 
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Ive been waiting for Starchitect to come out all season. Does anyone know if he has had a problem since he moved to Pipe? His horses haven't really been on fire so its a leap of faith to back him....oh and there is the jockey issue also!
 
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