The 2016 Grand National

A lovely field.
Did onenightinvienna last week, hope it runs well in the Reynoldstown, Saturday though thought he was going straight for this race. Wanted to do Wounded Warrior, but read he's probably out for he season. Maybe next year.
Outsiders Aachen, Present View if he's in the right mood.
 
Frankel said:
I thought I would ask the question. I too helped myself to that earlier rightly or wrongly. Still get it at BF and BB but shorter everywhere else.

He'll stick up 2. The other will be ?
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Segal hasn't gone for Holywell. He's gone for The Last Samuri & Kruzhlinin
 
wilsonl said:
Segal hasn't gone for Holywell. He's gone for The Last Samuri & Kruzhlinin
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I was just playing the game Wilson.

I do recall him having a stiffy for the Russian. Come to think of it, he has been complimentary about the Sword too recently.
 
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I took 33/1 this morning Holywell not so much because I fancy it but because I'm pretty sure it can give me one of several no-risk interests. I'm much happier that I took 131 Midnight Prayer last month as he now looks like running and once people latch on to how well handicapped he is he'll be less than 20/1, again another opportunity for a no-risk interest.

There will be some improved performances and returns to form between now and April. It isn't hard to imagine Holywell, for example, taking the big handicap at Cheltenham again as he did two years ago. That would see him under 10/1.

You have to wonder what they were doing with Houblon Des Obeaux on Saturday. He won a Gold Cup trial off 146 and has gone back up to 160. Maybe they decided he doesn't like the fences and are going to miss the race but his chances would have been much more attractive off 146.

Pineau De Re is back on the same off which he won quite comfortably two years ago.

It looks a classier race than last year's, when the top weights' OR were 161, and 2014 (161) and 2013 (162).

With Many Clouds pretty much guaranteed to run, I reckon nothing below 10-0 will get in. It's fairly uncommon nowadays for anything beyond the top 80 entries to make the final cut and that coincides with 10-0 this year. Anything on 10-0 or 10-1 will want to get the OR up between now and the big day to improve their chances of making the cut and with no penalties we can start to back Saturday runners without too much fear of them being held back too much.

I'll have a trawl through the weights (down to 10-0) over the next week but I imagine I won't be too surprised by what turns out to be well handicapped.
 
Euronymous said:
So the cunning plan of never putting the horse in the race last year so he can save 4lbs this might not work. Shame #cunts
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Think the Cheltenham exertions put paid to any winning chance, but as you say he was given too much to do

they've dropped a bollock in not trying to get his rating up though, needs 31 to come out to get in
 
If they want Cause Of Cause to run in this I'd be 90% certain he'll make the cut.

The past records aren't up on the RP site yet but I'm pretty sure it's a long time since anything rated 140 or more didn't get in.
 
swedish chef said:
Morning Assembly really catches my eye and I can definitely see where everyone is going with Holywell
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Agree about Morning Assembly. Was hoping they would go for this and it does appear that is the plan. Taking in the handicap on day one at Cheltenham along the way.
 
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Skybet are NRNB & 5 places at the moment but I haven't checked whether their odds are any less generous than anywhere else.
 
what weighting factor would people put against the following criteria for a horse to to win a GN

1. Ability to stay the trip at this level of competition
2. Handicap mark..ie well in or on their highest mark already
3. Be able to show best on the going.
4. Be able to show best on the track type
5. Jumping Ability
6. Number of races run in the season.
 
Frankel said:
Agree about Morning Assembly. Was hoping they would go for this and it does appear that is the plan. Taking in the handicap on day one at Cheltenham along the way.
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I backed Morning Assembly in early December, and added Rule The World to my Nash portfolio yesterday, following the release of the weights.

I can understand why people are backing Holywell (course form alone would command a degree of respect)..........but I just think the horse is a complete goner at the game, rather than one that has been throttled by Jonjo to land a National.
 
EC1 said:
what weighting factor would people put against the following criteria for a horse to to win a GN

1. Ability to stay the trip at this level of competition
2. Handicap mark..ie well in or on their highest mark already
3. Be able to show best on the going.
4. Be able to show best on the track type
5. Jumping Ability
6. Number of races run in the season.
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These days, I'd probably give proven ability in a big field a higher weighting that I used to.

From your list, the two that I would consider crucial in finalising a selection, would be ability to handle the ground and stamina (any horse that gets 3m elsewhere, I'd probably have down as a likely National stayer). I don't think ability to handle the course is particularly important (same with number of races run that season), and weight-carried is becoming less of an issue for me, as it doesn't seem to stop National horses in quite the same way it used to (though Soft/Heavy going would give this more import). I don't think jumping ability is much of a factor any more.
 
Grasshopper said:
I backed Morning Assembly in early December, and added Rule The World to my Nash portfolio yesterday, following the release of the weights.

I can understand why people are backing Holywell (course form alone would command a degree of respect)..........but I just think the horse is a complete goner at the game, rather than one that has been throttled by Jonjo to land a National.
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I took 66s yesterday on him. Bit shorter now.

Regards Holywell, I do too have reservations hence why I said rightly or wrongly, but his price made me bite. But I can also see why some wouldn't go near.
 
Grasshopper said:
These days, I'd probably give proven ability in a big field a higher weighting that I used to.

From your list, the two that I would consider crucial in finalising a selection, would be ability to handle the ground and stamina (any horse that gets 3m elsewhere, I'd probably have down as a likely National stayer). I don't think ability to handle the course is particularly important (same with number of races run that season), and weight-carried is becoming less of an issue for me, as it doesn't seem to stop National horses in quite the same way it used to (though Soft/Heavy going would give this more import). I don't think jumping ability is much of a factor any more.
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yes.. the proven form in big fields needs to be number 7 on the list. In the past the number of winners that have run well in other "Nationals" has definately had a helping affect on coping on the big day. Its no use having a hoss win loads of small field events then freaking out on the day when surrounded by 40 hosses. It must be quite daunting for a hoss experiencing that if its only used to lobbing round Catterick with 4 or 5 oppos following him.

physical weight itself not that important unless very slow ground..unlikely.. but does happen...more the mark they run off than the weight carried.

I remember in the 80's and 90's they used to say you could win a National even if you only win over 2m4f..which i thought was wrong overall..it will probably have been one or two hosses that did that..and then folk start getting idea its a general trend just based on recency bias at that time. Time has told that staying 3m is minimum requirement.
 
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EC1 said:
what weighting factor would people put against the following criteria for a horse to to win a GN

1. Ability to stay the trip at this level of competition
2. Handicap mark..ie well in or on their highest mark already
3. Be able to show best on the going
4. Be able to show best on the track type
5. Jumping Ability
6. Number of races run in the season.
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Weighting factors imply percentages EC and percentages need to add up to 100, thus it's impossible to apply percentages to the above because 1 and 2 for example would both be more than 50%, meaning I'm overweight before I've even considered the going.

and even if I try and give each item an "out of 10" score the numbers will vary based on the others, for example a horses ability to go on the ground and stay the trip would vary based on it's weight (both physical and OR). But I like your idea so if I had to order them in what I deemed to be priorities I'd have them in pretty much the order you have listed, other than switching 4 & 5 around.

One thing that does strike me is how Many Clouds comfortably ticks all of the boxes with the only minor doubt being a 5lb rise from last year, which I consider fair.
 
EC1 said:
yes.. the proven form in big fields needs to be number 7 on the list. In the past the number of winners that have run well in other "Nationals" has definately had a helping affect on coping on the big day. Its no use having a hoss win loads of small field events then freaking out on the day when surrounded by 40 hosses. It must be quite daunting for a hoss experiencing that if its only used to lobbing round Catterick with 4 or 5 oppos following him.

physical weight itself not that important unless very slow ground..unlikely.. but does happen...more the mark they run off than the weight carried.

I remember in the 80's and 90's they used to say you could win a National even if you only win over 2m4f..which i thought was wrong overall..it will probably have been one or two hosses that did that..and then folk start getting idea its a general trend just based on recency bias at that time. Time has told that staying 3m is minimum requirement.
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Good to see you back.
 
I hate thinking about Many Clouds last year WilsonR..i was all over him for the GC..in fact i kept saying on here from December onwards..he keeps winning at decent odds..ie people underestimating him..and never give him a thought for the National after he dipped in the GC..just shows how one run can put you off..recency bias costs.

.its actually really hard to see what can stop Many Clouds from doing it again..if you weigh up factors that we normally look at..we know for a fact he passes all the tests...except possibly one we don't know..will he be the same hoss 12 months on.

the only negative i have for him..is that last year he was in a right state when crossed the line..understandably so,,,i wonder if that will leave a mark on him when asked to go through that barrier again
 
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