The 2016 Grand National

Colin Phillips said:
Gay Trip to blame for that, EC, if my memory hasn't completely deserted me.
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there was something more recent than Gay Trip Col..if the 80's can be classed as that:)..i'll have to look back on google..find what brought that view up

checked back..nothing jogs my memory..it probably does hark back to Gay Trip. I can definately remember for a few years the 2.5m one used to come up a lot in pre race analysis in the 80's. I never got it at all.
 
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Practically everyone I know asks me for Nash tips each year.

Last season, I sent out a text which started "The best horse in the race is Many Clouds'.....before going on to make convoluted cases for three others. Practically everyone stopped reading after the first sentence, and backed MC - whilst I did my conkers backing Rubi Light, Ely Brown and Corrin Wood. The series of 'Thank you' texts I received, only served to make me feel an even bigger dullard.

Sometimes, it doesn't pay to look beyond the obvious, and with luck in running, Many Clouds will surely be hard to beat again this year - he just doesn't seem to have any holes in him, insofar as this particular race goes.
 
That was my concern too EC but then I considered how well he ran back there only two outings later, on a different track of course and the way he forlornly chased Smad Place up the Cheltenham hill LTO.

Definitely my idea of the winner again but considering his price right now he's a wait until the day of the race bet - when the bookies throw in the offers and such.
 
EC1 said:
there was something more recent than Gay Trip Col..if the 80's can be classed as that:)..i'll have to look back on google..find what brought that view up

checked back..nothing jogs my memory..it probably does hark back to Gay Trip. I can definately remember for a few years the 2.5m one used to come up a lot in pre race analysis in the 80's. I never got it at all.
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It was something that Henderson used to say every time he ran The Tsarevich.
 
EC, wasn't the theory that back in the days before the redesign of the fences that they didn't really go a racing pace on the first circuit, just hunted around, and that you didn't have to be dour stayer to get the trip and in fact you needed a horse with a touch of speed to succeed.

With less demanding fences the pace is now higher on the first circuit and the ability to truly stay the trip is now more important.

Again if memory serves, Crisp who came sickenly (for me) close to winning won over two miles at the highest level.

Better leave it there, the younger members have probably fallen asleep.
 
Crisp won a Champion Chase, but did also run in a GC. It was after the GC that they decided their running tactics for the GN, as he had apparently sulked when held up in the GC and would have preferred to have had an unimpeded lead. Pitman says if he had have just ridden him hands and heels, he wouldn't have lost two lengths on the run-in when he stood up and took the whip to Crisp.

I watched an interview on youtube yesterday with Pitman (lovely guy), and he recalled the tale of Peter O'Sullevan wanting to do a re-recording of the '73 GN, but over the new, lesser distance (half a furlong shorter?), and moving the winning post on the film, too, and that recording would have Crisp just managing to hold on. Probably one of those early races that got me hooked on racing, and I took a real dislike to Red Rum immediately after the race!

As for this year's race, will Don Poli take his chance, do you think? I like this horse a lot, and he'd probablly have the beating of MC, receiving a pound. That Aintree race back in December may prove to be very instructive.
 
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Would love to see Many Clouds win it again as he is a class act

I suspect something with a low weight will run him out of it
4 I am interested in are

Triolo D'Alene
Holywell
The Last Samuri
Third Intention
 
EC1 said:
what weighting factor would people put against the following criteria for a horse to to win a GN

1. Ability to stay the trip at this level of competition
2. Handicap mark..ie well in or on their highest mark already
3. Be able to show best on the going.
4. Be able to show best on the track type
5. Jumping Ability
6. Number of races run in the season.
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1. Crucial (obviously!) but often not known until they run in the race itself. An Eider winner might not stay the National trip.
2. Even more important. Other than the year of the two finishers, you just don't win Nationals unless you're handicapped to do so. The hard bit is working out in advance which horses are handicapped to win the race, often a matter of personal interpretation of the form.
3. Probably exaggerated in this race, ie the less suited you are the more it's going to affect you.
4. Not that important. Some winners are trying the race/track for the first time.
5. In my opinion, not that important. As I said earlier in the thread, I left out my top-rated Maori Venture, Rhyme N Reason and Royal Athlete because of jumping concerns. Haven't done it since. Paid off early with Last Suspect at 66/1.
6. Not that important. All horses are different in that respect. Some may have had to run a lot to get down to a favourable mark; others will have had a light season to protect a favourable mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
1. Crucial (obviously!) but often not known until they run in the race itself. An Eider winner might not stay the National trip.
2. Even more important. Other than the year of the two finishers, you just don't win Nationals unless you're handicapped to do so. The hard bit is working out in advance which horses are handicapped to win the race, often a matter of personal interpretation of the form.
3. Probably exaggerated in this race, ie the less suited you are the more it's going to affect you.
4. Not that important. Some winners are trying the race/track for the first time.
5. In my opinion, not that important. As I said earlier in the thread, I left out my top-rated Maori Venture, Rhyme N Reason and Royal Athlete because of jumping concerns. Haven't done it since. Paid off early with Last Suspect at 66/1.
6. Not that important. All horses are different in that respect. Some may have had to run a lot to get down to a favourable mark; others will have had a light season to protect a favourable mark.
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I would put jockey's ability in here. I think it is as important as almost anything else. If there is someone of a lower standard on board can ruin a horse's chance before the race even starts.
 
My worry about Holywell - apart from the fact that his form has been stinking this year even on the goodish ground at Donny is that he is quite a little horse and I could easily see him spitting his dummy out faced with those big fences at an early stage.
 
Ardross said:
My worry about Holywell - apart from the fact that his form has been stinking this year even on the goodish ground at Donny is that he is quite a little horse and I could easily see him spitting his dummy out faced with those big fences at an early stage.
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Plenty of small horses have won the National. Ben Nevis was little bigger than a pony.

If Holywell gets into the kind of rhythm as when winning on the Mildmay course two years ago he could give the rider a proper thrill.
 
I backed Midnight Prayer a month ago at 131 with a view to laying it off at much shorter. Happy with that.
I backed Hoywell (33/1) yesterday for similar reasons. Happy with that.
I've just backed Black Thunder at 190 and 180, again for similar reasons. Happy with that.

If I can have five or six running for me with no downside I'll enjoy the race all the more!

Edit:

And Katenko now at 140.
 
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EC1 said:
physical weight itself not that important unless very slow ground..unlikely.. but does happen...more the mark they run off than the weight carried.
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I'd disagree with this. The over 11 stone brigade have only started running better since the handicapper started compressing the weights.
 
MrFrisk said:
I'd disagree with this. The over 11 stone brigade have only started running better since the handicapper started compressing the weights.
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i was talking about this years race though..which is under the compression way of doing the weights..which means that physical weight isn't the factor it was before.

do you mean past races?
 
MrFrisk said:
I'd disagree with this. The over 11 stone brigade have only started running better since the handicapper started compressing the weights.
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I disagree with this.

The handicapper has only been compressing the weights for a few years now. Horses carrying big weights have been running well in the race for as long as I can remember (going back to the mid-60s).

Crisp 12-0, Suny Bay top weight?, etc, etc. Carrying a big weight never stopped a well-handicapped horse from running its race.

The compressing of the weights has served to enable classier types to take their chance and thus raised the race standard to probably its highest ever level.
 
EC1 said:
i was talking about this years race though..which is under the compression way of doing the weights..which means that physical weight isn't the factor it was before.

do you mean past races?
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Yeah, historically. I still think it's a big ask to carry a big weight in the GN. Admittedly, it's helped a little now they've reduced the distance and made the fences easier but it's still a tall order to lump a big weight round the GN course.

DO - of course there's exceptions to every rule, Red Rum was another who won off top weight, The Thinker ran well also, but far more donkeys off 10 stone have run into the frame.
 
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MrFrisk said:
DO - of course there's exceptions to every rule, Red Rum was another who won off top weight, The Thinker ran well also, but far more donkeys off 10 stone have run into the frame.
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Yes, but the nature of the race is such that they're there because they're handicapped to be there on bits or bobs of form and/or better-fancied or better-handicapped horses have failed to finish.

With the exception of the two-horse finish (when the race should really have been abandoned) my figures say it's very much a form race.
 
MrFrisk said:
Yeah, historically. I still think it's a big ask to carry a big weight in the GN. Admittedly, it's helped a little now they've reduced the distance and made the fences easier but it's still a tall order to lump a big weight round the GN course.
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The distance hasn't been reduced, - just measured properly.
 
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