Sorry for the length of this:
5.15 - Aintree - Saturday 9th April 2016:
Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (7yo+)
Much has been written concerning the changes to the National Course which occurred after Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Synchonised, was fatally injured while loose in the 2012 race. The main changes were to move the start away from the main stand, making it a shorter race, a modification to the fences, replacing the wooden middle core and making them a 'brush through variety and the removal of 'drops' on the landing side of fences. In the three years since those modifications there have been half the number of horses falling or being brought down compared to the three years prior. The raising of the minimum age to seven and the requirement to finish fourth or better in a Chase over three miles or more has contributed to better and more experienced horses taking part. The Assessors' ability to handicap the Grand National as a standalone event has also enabled him to present 'favourable terms' to classier horses and thus ensuring more horses of graded ability are being attracted to the race. Increased prize money is also a factor of course. Jumping 16 different fences on the first circuit and jumping them all bar two on a second circuit still presents a test of a horse's fencing ability and the near four and a quarter mile distance still demands stamina in spades, especially now that the race tends to be run at a faster pace since the fence modifications. Several tried and tested statistics could start to disappear in the 'new look' National but there are a number which will still stand the test of time and can provide valuable pointers to a possible winner.
Key trends:
Horses aged ten plus have won 17 of the last 26 renewals and 20 of the last 22 winners have been aged nine plus but no teenager has won since 1923 or placed since 1969.
9 of the last 13 winners had run over hurdles at some stage in the season.
13 of the last 17 winners were bred in Ireland (Our Vic progeny do particularly well)
5 of the last 15 winners had finished unplaced in the previous season's renewal.
Every winner in the past 45 years had won over at least three miles.
From a low representation 3 of the last 9 winners have been five pounds 'well in'.
Seven of the last seventeen winners have been Irish trained.
12 of the last 19 winners had won or finished place in one 'National'. (The Scottish National has proved a good trial in recent seasons)
Horses ridden prominently fare well.
Only two eight year olds have won in the past 22 years and no seven year old has won for 76 years.
17 of the last 19 winners had no more than two falls or unseats in their career.
From 73 to try only one horse that has won or been placed in the previous season's renewal has won in the past 32 years.
In the past 33 years only one winner had not run within the last 50 days.
Of course stats don't run the race and Lady Luck, Jockeyship and the weather can all play their part. It's normally unusual to find a statistically perfect horse.
The Runners:
Many Clouds: (9 year old carrying 11-10) Last season's winner from a five pound lower mark and seems to have had the ideal preparation in a bid to repeat his success. Laid out specifically for this race and bids to become the first horse to win back to back Grand Nationals since the imperious Red Rum back in 1973/74. Resolute galloper and his only non-completion was when brought down. A winner of 7 of his 15 Chases, finishing second on a further four occasions. Ground conditions won't pose a problem and hard to find any chink in his armour.
Silviniaco Conti: (10 year old carrying 11-8) A seven time Grade One winner over fences including two King Georges's and two Betfred Bowls at this track. A wind operation and first time blinkers got him back on track when winning at Ascot on his latest start but a combination of this trip and the likely ground conditions raise a question over his stamina. All 16 career victories have come in fields of ten or less so the hurly burly of this race may not be ideal. A mark of 169 looks generous on the balance of his form in recent seasons but the layers haven't been generous in marking him up at a best priced 14/1.
First Lieutenant: (11 year old carrying 11-4) Only three wins from 29 starts over fences and was a well beaten 16th in this race last season. Early mistakes didn't help his cause but he is five pounds higher in the weights this time round and his last victory came in the Betfred bowl here back in 2013. His close second to Don Poli in the Lexus Chase in December doesn't make him a hopeless cause but he looks weighted to the hilt.
Wonderful Charm: (8 year old carrying 11-3) All four victories over fences have come in field of five runners or less and has never won over further than 21 furlongs. However he was staying on when narrowly denied over 25 furlongs on his handicap debut here last season and runs from a one pound lower mark in this race. That race was on good ground and the likely softer ground will test his stamina to the limit. Hasn't won since October 2013 and gives the impression he may not be the heartiest when it comes to a scrap but he does have ability and if he stays he could get competitive.
Ballynagour: (11 year old carrying 11-2) Can look very impressive on a 'going day' but he has never won beyond an extended 21 furlongs under rules. Finished third in the Melling Chase here in 2014 but he remains on that mark and there have been plenty of disappointments since. Capable of outrunning his odds but better ground would be preferable and has stamina issues to answer. Has some high class form to his name but unreliable as a betting proposition.
O'Faolains Boy: (9 year old carrying 11-1) Excellent staying Novice back in 2014 but injury has since took it's toll. Seemed back to his best on his second start this season but he hasn't reached the same level since. Went well for a long way in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out but was ultimately beaten a long way. Stable have hit form with a vengeance recently and he is a good jumper but it's debatable whether he is in the kind of form or retains the ability to win a race of this calibre.
Gilgamboa: (8 year old carrying 11-01) Excelled himself when finishing fifth in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last time out but that came over 21 furlongs on good ground and his two efforts at around three miles have raised questions regarding his stamina. Represents a Trainer whose horses are rarely deficient in the jumping department but he isn't generously treated on mark of 159.
On His Own: (12 year old carrying 11-1) Well into veteran status and two previous attempts in this race have resulted in falls. Finished well beaten in the Bechers chase on his only visit to this track since and has become too inconsistent to be seriously considered for this race. A mark of 157 looks harsh on the balance of his recent form.
The Druids Nephew: (9 year old carrying 11-0) Still going well when coming down five out in last season's race and has been specifically trained with this race in mind. Beaten 10 lengths by the Last Samuri when last seen but that was easily his best effort in three starts this season and suggests he will be at his peak for this race. Not always the most fluent of jumpers and he is nine pounds higher than he was in last season's renewal. Promises to possess the stamina for this test but nine pounds above his last winning mark and probably needs to find improvement from somewhere.
Triolo D'Alene: ( 9 year old carrying 11-0) Had his problems and has raced just four times since pulling up in this race is 2014. May have been flattered when winning his penultimate race at Kempton and was soundly beaten by Silvianaco Conti last time out at Ascot. Has won over these fences but a mark of 155 looks harsh on the balance of his form this season and it's debatable whether he retains his former ability.
Rocky Creek: (10 year old carrying 10-13) Fifth in this race in 2014 but beaten a country mile in last season's renewal and he hasn't done anything since to suggest he can be a major force in this season's race. His last win came from his current mark but he looks on the downgrade and jockey bookings suggest he doesn't carry stable confidence.
Sir Des Champs: (10 year old carrying 10-13) The fact that he was the choice of Ruby Walsh before injury stopped him taking the ride suggests he is not a lost cause and he is certainly well weighted on past exploits. A winner of 11 of his 22 starts he was absent for almost two years before returning with a victory at Thurles last November but the fact he has regressed in two races since has to be a concern. The Mullins/Walsh partnership are never easy to dismiss but their representative here has more than a few questions to answer.
Holywell: (9 year old carrying 10-13) A mark of 153 looks generous on the balance of his form at this time of year and he duly bounced back to form when finishing second in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time out. Soft ground is a concern but his capability of producing form at this time of year counts for a lot, especially considering he looks favourably weighted. Not always the most fluent of jumpers but ridden by a jockey who is only the one to be successful on board bar Tony McCoy.
Shutthefrontdoor: (9 year old carrying 10-11) Started favorite for this race last season but faded in the latter stages to finish fifth, beaten 13 lengths by Many Clouds. Runs from a one pound lower mark this time round and sports the cheekpieces for the first time since running in this race last season. Yet to prove he has the requisite stamina but a victory in the Irish equivalent in 2014 suggests that he may have. His effort when pulling up at Newbury last time out doesn't read well but it may have put him right for this; his effort last season came in his first start for six months. Of the four runners representing J. P. McManus, he is the choice of Barry Geraghty.
Soll: (11 year old carrying 10-11) Completed on all four occasions he has tackled these fences but seventh in this race in 2013 and ninth when breaking a blood vessel last season. Fourth in the Becher Chase here in December but looks poorly weighted being 18 pounds higher in the weights than when running in those two previous renewals. Likely to have the requisite stamina but there are classier types better weighted and Tom Scudamore prefers Ballynagour.
Buywise: (9 year old carrying 10-10) Four victories and three placed efforts from 13 starts over fences but has yet to win beyond 23 furlongs. Been in good form this season and was third on his seasonal return here over the conventional fences in the Old Roan Chase in October. Only fall in 13 starts over fences under rules came on his debut in a Hunter chase but doesn't always convince with his jumping and prone to at least one blunder per race. If he does that here it's not hard to see him on the back foot and struggling to stay in touch. Represents a yard with a good record in this race and has the inherent ability to outrun his large odds if he keeps the mistakes to a minimum.
Boston Bob: (11 year old carrying 10-10) Won Grade One Chases both here and at Punchestown this time two years ago but hadn't got his head in front since until winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse when last seen in February. Has run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Lexus Chase and the RSA Chase so he isn't a stranger to running in top class races but Ruby Walsh had deserted him for Sir Des Champs prior to injury interfering so it's hard to gauge what sort of form he is in. The balance of his form in the past 12 months doesn't suggest he is well treated on a mark of 151.
Aachen: (12 year old carrying 10-10) Form has taken off this season. Two victories and a close second to Soll at Sandown in January saw his mark increase by 28 pounds. His improvement has stalled in his last two starts in which he has been well beaten at Newbury and Doncaster. Runs from two pounds higher than his new mark and jumps these fences for the first time at the age of twelve. Front runs or races prominently so he is likely to be to the fore in the early stages but it's hard to see him staying there.
Morning Assembly: (9 year old carrying 10-9) Made the frame in seven of his eight starts over fences, winning twice. Absent for 21 months prior to returning at Fairyhouse in January and has run well in each of his three starts since. Finished fourth in the Ultima handicap at Cheltenham last time out when an uncustomary error three from home stalled his progress after travelling well. The balance of his Chase form suggests a mark of 150 could be lenient and he is normally a sound jumper. Versatile regarding ground conditions and relatively lightly raced after just 14 starts overall. Has a hurdle win to his name over three miles and appeals more than most.
Double Ross: (10 year old carrying 10-9) Never been placed in three previous visits to Aintree and last saw the winners enclosure back in January 2014. Never won beyond 21 furlongs and still seven pounds higher than his last winning mark. That makes him a poorly weighted horse with stamina reservations, factors that don't augur well for his chances in this race. Has completed over these fences in both the Topham and the Grand Sefton and often races prominently so he is likely to be up with the pace early on. It would be a surprise if he were still there in the latter stages though.
Goonyella: (9 year old carrying 10-8) Has competed in the Irish, Welsh, Scottish and Midlands Nationals and is a dour stayer whose chances will be improved the softer the ground is. Won the Midlands National over 33 furlongs and was a close second in the Scottish National over 32 furlongs last season and was back to that level of form when finishing second in the Leinster national at Naas last time out. Unseated at the first over these fences in last season's Becher Chase and, although completing in the race this season, he was well beaten. Cheekpieces are added for the second time to his normal tongue tie and that could sharpen him up a bit. Thirteen pounds higher than for his last win but he will still be going when most have cried enough. Whether he will be going fast enough to win is another matter, and he places more often than he wins, but he has many of the right attributes for a race of this nature.
Ucello Conti: (8 year old carrying 10-8) Done most of his running at up to 21 furlongs in France but has been placed in testing ground in two of his three starts over 24/25 furlongs since joining his current yard. The absence of a win over three miles or more doesn't do much for his chances statistically and his absence for 79 days is also a major negative. However he is with a master Trainer and his mark of 144 makes plenty of appeal. Versatile regarding ground conditions and jumps well. Looks the type who could run well and appeals if he can overcome the major negatives against his name.
Unioniste: (8 year old carrying 10-8) Fell at the fifth in last season's race but he was lumbered with 11-6 as a seven year old, an age group with an awful record in the race. Finds himself eight pounds lower and a year older coming into this season's race and has struck form on his last three starts. He was a ten length second to Many Clouds last time out at Kelso and enjoys a 12 pound pull in the weights. In theory that should bring them much closer together but Unioniste has to prove his stamina for this trip whereas his rival has no doubts on that score. He made mistakes when finishing in midfield in the Becher Chase over these fences back in December but he has it in him to run well if his stamina lasts out and he brushes up his fencing.
Le Reve: (8 year old carrying 10-8) Started the season slowly but back to his best when winning at Sandown on his penultimate start and stays well. Wouldn't be weighted out of this on a mark of 149 but there must be a doubt whether this track will suit. All his winning has been done on right-handed tracks and his record going anti-clockwise reads UU3PP06. He was in the process of running well when unseating his rider through no fault of his own in a Grade Two Chase at Newbury a few seasons ago so all is not lost but the percentage call has to be to oppose.
Gallant Oscar: (10 year old carrying 10-8) Looks to have been campaigned with this race in mind and the yard have come back into form at the right time after a poor season. Just over five lengths behind The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham last season but now finds himself six pounds worse off. An easy win on his final start at Punchestown last season saw his mark rocket and he now finds himself 15 pounds higher in the weights than he was at Cheltenham. Still has some potential as a Chaser but it's not hard to surmise that there are much better treated horses in this race. Barry Geraghty prefers Shutthefrontdoor.
Onenightinvienna: (7 year old carrying 10-8) Has taken well to fences but he is a seven year old Novice making his handicap debut after just four starts over fences. Represents a highly respected and powerful stable and the balance of his runs over fences suggest he is on a decent mark. However no seven year old has won this race since 1940 and the last Novice to win was in 1958.
The Last Samuri: (8 year old carrying 10-8) Probably the best handicapped horse in the race. He best The Druids Nephew by ten lengths at Doncaster last month and that earned him a mark of 161. He can race off 149 here so his 'weight chance' is there for all to see. He is not very big but he jumps and stays well and in winning 5 of his 8 Chases to date he has produced a progressive profile. Being brought along with this race in mind by his former trainer until his owner decided to uproot all his horses and transfer them to other stables. The Last Samuri has joined Kim Bailey, who knows what it takes to win this race, and the only chink in his armour is his inexperience for a race of this nature. Predicted rain will help his chances if it arrives and likely to run well but he has been well found in the market in recent weeks.
Kruhzlinin: (9 year old carrying 10-7) Another ex Donald McCain inmate who has been transferred, this time to Philip Hobbs. Kruhzlinin was tenth in this race as a seven year old back in 2014 and was a good fifth over these fences in the Becher Chase in December of the same year. A win over Le Reve at Kempton in January saw his mark rise sharply and he was fifth in the Ultima Handicap at Cheltenham from his revised rating when last seen. He will need to jump better than he did there but he is the choice of Richard Johnson which won't do his chances any harm. His experience of these fences and this race will hold him in good stead and a big run wouldn't surprise given he will handle conditions.
Rule The World: (9 year old carrying 10-7) Has yet to win in 13 starts over fences but has been second on seven occasions, one of them being in the Irish national last season, the stiffest stamina test he has had to date. Still well below his hurdle rating so there is some scope from his current mark but this is a tough race in which to break your maiden status over fences. A good run wouldn't be a surprise for an in-form Trainer who has few peers when it comes to targeting specific races.
Just A Par: (9 year old carrying 10-6) Pulled up the only time he has tackled these fences but has a win over 29 furlongs at Sandown to his name and has improved with each of his three outings this season. That still leaves him some way short of what is needed to win this race and there doesn't appear anything in his formbook that suggests he is capable of bridging that gap.
Katenko: (9 year old carrying 10-6) Had his share of problems since arriving from France and his performances in two starts this season suggest they are taking their toll. Wouldn't be out of this at his best but he is eight pounds above his Official Rating and that's harsh for a horse who hasn't won since January 2013 and has only made the track three times in two seasons, failing to finish in two of them. The yard sprang a surprise with Mon Mome back in 2009 but it's hard to imagine them repeating the trick with this representative.
Vics Canvas: (13 year old carrying 10-6) No teenager has won this race since 1923 and none have placed since 1969 but Vics Canvas is not your typical 13 year old. This is just his 11th start over fences and he was only beaten just under four lengths in the Becher Chase here in December. That experience, his first over these fences, will hold him in good stead and it was a career best, so he obviously not only retains enthusiasm but plenty of ability as well. He hasn't fared so well in two starts since and runs here from seven pounds above his current rating. He stays well and acts on the ground so it's possible he will bust the well established age stat and make the frame.
Black Thunder: (9 year old carrying 10-6) Not having the best of seasons and all four Chase wins have come in fields of six runners or less. Not the safest of jumpers and that has to be worry for a horse out of form. Could struggle when things hot up and difficult to see him finishing in the frame, even partnered by a jockey who has an enviable record over these fences.
Ballycasey: (9 year old carrying 10-6) Unlucky to be brought down at the Canal Turn in last season's race but he often promises to deliver more than he does and his ability to see out this trip is a major doubt. He hasn't got close to the winner in three starts this season but he has improved with each outing. Two of those have come over 20/21 furlongs and he has never impressed with his finishing effort when stepped up to three miles plus.
Hadrian's Approach: (9 year old carrying 10-6) Only been seen three times in the past two years and made his reappearance this season in February after a 13 month absence. He ran well in the circumstances to finish in midfield, beaten just over 15 length, in a Grade Three handicap at Kempton. That could set him up for a decent crack at this race if he retains his old ability. That ability included a win in the Bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown over 29 furlongs from just one pound lower than he runs from today. His lack of activity is a concern but he gets in here off a light weight and he could be over-priced if he is fit and firing.
Vieux Lion Rouge: (7 year old carrying 10-5) Has won three of his starts over fences and been placed in one other. Didn't seem to see out the four miles at Cheltenham but still ran respectably to finish sixth. Runs from the same mark here but, like Onenightinvienna, he is a seven year old Novice and they haven't historically fared well in this race. partnered by one of the best jockeys around but likely to need this experience for future attempts.
Pendra: (8 year old carrying 10-5) Has won three of his nine starts over fences, including on his reappearance in a Grade Three handicap at Ascot in October. wasn't disgraced from a seven pound higher mark over the same C/D in December and put away for this afterwards.Still has scope for improvement but he will need it on the balance of his form and this is his first sight of these fences. Hasn't entirely convinced that he has the stamina for this and he is not at the top of his owner's list.
Saint Are: (10 year old carrying 10-5) Stayed on well to finish third in last season's Becher chase over these fences and was doing the same when beaten just under two lengths by Many Clouds in this race last season. He is two pounds better off this year so he hold every chance of gaining his revenge if he is in the same kind of form. he has improved in each of his three starts this season and set himself up nicely for this when winning at Doncaster last time out. Runs from four pounds below his new rating and looks primed for a very big effort.
Home Farm: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Finished a three length third in the 2013 Irish National but a fifth in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown and a win in a Listed Chase over 22 furlongs at Thurles are his only performances of note since then. Had two starts over much shorter over hurdles this season and unlikely to figure off his current mark.
The Romford Pele: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Hasn't always convinced with his jumping but he could be the type who gives these fences respect and he certainly has an engine. He was staying on over the extended 27 furlongs at Cheltenham in November and can run from a three pound lower mark here. He wasn't seen to the same effect in his next start where he fell when struggling but the yard were in poor form at the time and there has been more encouragement in his last two starts over hurdles. He was third in the Cleeve Hurdle behind two much higher rated rivals and he caught the eye when staying on in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last time out. The stable are in a rich vein of form at present and they have formed a good association with today's jockey. If he takes to these fences he could have untapped potential now he is given a stern stamina test. Handles any ground and it's not difficult to see him outrunning his odds if he fancies this test.
Selections: (Total outlay - 7 pts)
Holywell - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 (Generally available)
Saint Are - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 (Betvictor, 1/4 odds first 6)
Morning Assembly - 0.5 pts win @ 25/1 (Betfred, William Hill, Totesport)
Ucello Conti - 0.5 pts win @ (Betfred, Betvictor, Totesport)
Unioniste - 0.5 pts win @ 33/1 (Generally available)
The Romford Pele - 0.75 pts e/w @ 40/1. (Generally available 1/4 odds first 5)
I've actually backed Wonderful Charm at 66/1 Antepost but have gone a bit cold on it...plus I think tipping 6 is enough for anyone!
