The 2017 Grand National

Chris Cook of The Guardian with an educated guess at the weights


So it’s ‘Grand National weights’ day, which means I’ve had my annual go at guessing what Phil Smith will do with the 110 entrants for this year’s race (to be run in April, for those who don’t know). My guesses are below, while Phil will unveil his definitive rulings on the subject during a ballyhoo at the V&A tonight. In theory, it should be pretty predictable because all the British-based horses have published handicap ratings which Smith will almost certainly stick to. The only room for doubt concerns the Irish runners, as well as those Brits who’ve run recently and might have their rating adjusted up or down.
In practice, it’s trickier because the weight for each horse depends on his mark relative to the top-rated animal. Pick the wrong horse for the top spot or rate a horse wrong near the top of the weights and you’ll find that everything below will also be wrong in consequence. To complicate matters, Smith compresses the top end of the weights for the National, so as to give the classy horses a fair chance, though he’s been weaning himself off that system in recent years and I suppose the day will come when he declares it’s no longer necessary.
Anyway, with all of those caveats, here are my predictions, which should be broadly accurate as to order, at any rate, if not as to exact weights set for each horse. Where there are significant differences, it will mean that either Smith has done something interesting or I’ve done something daft. No guesses, please, as to which is more likely.



11-10 Outlander
11-9 Empire Of Dirt, Don Poli, Champagne West
11-8 Carlingford Lough, More Of That
11-7 The Last Samuri
11-6 Alary, Alelchi Inois
11-5 Foxrock, Minella Rocco, Road To Riches
11-4 Otago Trail, Saphir Du Rheu, Shantou Flyer
11-3 Clarcam, Devils Bride, Lord Scoundrel, Perfect Candidate, Sausalito Sunrise
11-2 Carole’s Destrier, Lord Windermere, Wonderful Charm
11-0 A Toi Phil, Blaklion, Bless The Wings, Drop Out Joe, Tenor Nivernais, Tiger Roll, Wounded Warrior
10-13 Le Mercurey, Maggio, The Game Changer
10-12 Cause Of Causes, O’Faolains Boy, Regal Encore, The Young Master
10-11 Definitly Red, Double Shuffle, Houblon Des Obeaux
10-10 Ballynagour, Roi Des Francs, Ucello Conti, Just A Par, Junction Fourteen, Pleasant Company, Vivaldi Collonges
10-9 Bishops Road, Cocktails At Dawn, One For Arthur, Saint Are, Vicente, Ziga Boy
10-8 Gallant Oscar, Raz De Maree, Vieux Lion Rouge
10-7 As De Mee, Goodtoknow, Pendra, Shutthefrontdoor, The Romford Pele, Seventh Sky, Vics Canvas
10-6 Gas Line Boy, Measureofmydreams, Triolo D’Alene
10-5 Doctor Harper, La Vaticane
10-4 Stellar Notion, Thunder And Roses, Tour Des Champs
10-3 Knock House, Rogue Angel
10-2 Hadrian’s Approach, Highland Lodge, Sambremont
10-1 Benbens, Potters Cross, Straidnahanna, Viva Steve, Vyta Du Roc
10-0 Cloudy Too, Lamb Or Cod, Milansbar, Polidam
9-13 Beeves, Streets Of Promise
9-12 Royale Knight, Sizing Coal
9-11 Alvarado, Alfie Spinner, Emperor’s Choice, Goulanes, Milborough, Out Sam, Mountain King, The Crafty Butcher, Vieux Morvan
9-10 Dare To Endeavour, Father Edward, Katenko, Samingarry, Silver Man
9-9 Federici, Lessons In Milan, Racing Pulse, Waldorf Salad
9-8 Dromnea
9-7 Gone Too Far
9-6 Killer Crow
 
Can anybody remember a horse being entered for both the Supreme Novices and Grand National in the same season ?

Step forward Pleasant Company. Supreme, Neptune, Albert Bartlett and Grand National :confused:

Does Willie just enter every horse eligible from the yard in the festival novice races ?. #NewHeights
 
Announcement of weights to be streamed live on Facebook


From RP

HE weights for the £1 million Randox Health Grand National, the world's most iconic horserace, will be unveiled on Tuesday evening. Here's how you can access all the crucial information. What is the Grand National weights ceremony?
It's one of the most eagerly awaited events in the jumps year, at which Aintree takes the wraps off the order of handicap for the world famous steeplechase. It is a plush occasion attended by past and present winners of the race and connections of those hoping to be next onto the National podium.
How does it work and can I follow?
For the first time this year the weights allocated to runners have been closely guarded and will be known only to BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith and select others. Connections will not discover their horse's weight until they are revealed in countdown form at Tuesday evening's ceremony. Previously connections would find out their horse's weights immediately on arrival, but Aintree wanted to add more drama to the occasion.
The countdown will start at 8pm with weights announced from bottom to top in blocks of ten with the final ten announced individually. Aintree will stream the event live on Facebook, while there will be regular updates from the Racing Post on Twitter and on the website.
Who makes the decisions and how?
The Grand National is the only race in the calendar for which the BHA's head of handicapping has free rein over what weight he can allocate horses, so Phil Smith has total discretion over the make-up of the race and his decision is final.
As a result there is an element of uncertainty and sometimes disagreement over the way Smith frames the weights, from the maximum 11st 10lb down, which has invariably involved him compressing the rating of the highest handicapped horses in order to fit as many horses as possible into the handicap with a racing weight.
Why is it at the Victoria and Albert Museum?
The weights ceremony is one of the longest running events of its kind and has been staged at some iconic locations, in keeping with the Grand National's status as an iconic race and the V and A is the latest location. With a new race sponsor in Randox Health and a new terrestrial TV partner in ITV, it has been moved to an evening event to try to generate greater media coverage - although print publications will struggle with the later kick-off.
Where else has it been staged?
The first Grand National weights lunch was held in 1977 at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in London when the race was sponsored by the News of the World. It has visited nearly every one of the capital's five star hotels since, including the Dorchester, Savoy and Landmark, as well as the Cafe Royal and Bafta Centre.
During Martell's sponsorship the lunch was held for one year in Cognac, France, when guests were flown from Luton Airport to a ceremony which took place at the brand's distillery.
More recently it has moved to a new London location each year taking in the the world famous Abbey Road Studios, Royal Opera House, Sky Garden and now the V and A.
 
In 1995 the year before he was runner up in the National-Encore Un Peu was entered in the National and all the novice hurdles and chases at the festival -he was probably entered in a few handicaps for good measure.
 
They need to rethink the format or timing of this if they want to continue streaming it in real time - the live feed is 80% Ed Chamberlin trying to shush pi$$ed up diners/drinkers. No one is listening and it's hard to hear some of the panel comments. I'm relying on Twitter's updates instead.
 
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Very happy with the 66/1 I've got on Vieux Lion Rouge. Won the Becher, form over the course, and was running a belter last year until the ground took it all out of him.

Currently 20s, I'll be sticking a few more quid each way.

Cause of Causes as someone said above is also an interesting one.
 
At this stage my long list consists of Foxrock, Cause of Causes, Definitly Red, Ucello Conti, Vieux Lion Rouge and O'Faolains Boy.
 
Does that then mean the ones below all go up a pound or 2 then? This confuses me.
Could an owner not enter his top horses to then get the one he wants the ideal mark?
 
Double J said:
Does that then mean the ones below all go up a pound or 2 then? This confuses me.
Could an owner not enter his top horses to then get the one he wants the ideal mark?
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The top weight on race day will always carry 11-10 and weight will go up accordingly. His OR though will be what is set today, and all those below top weight will rise exactly the same.

This means if Champagne West was to be top weight on the day everything will go up by 1 pound. Any below 10 stones will be given 10 stones automatically.

Another extreme example is Blaklion on 10-10 if he was to be top weight on day then everything rises 1 stone.

A owner might employ such tactics proving that the horse in question has got 4th or better in a chase of 3 miles or further by March 21st, the second elimination stage, but it could equally work against him and is not fair to the top weight if that's the only reason he's kept in.
 
I've only just done a copy of the weights and will trawl through my figures over the next week or so but one is jumping out of the page and slapping me Tony Scapone style ("Going My Way" is the film referenced) and that one is Road To Riches.

A possible Gold Cup winner off 155???? Seriously???????

Last year's winner Rule The World wouldn't be anywhere near his class.

Knowing my luck, though, it won't run.

(It will make the perfect tabloid headline too!)
 
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From Racing UK;


Don Poli, favourite for the Randox Health Grand National with most bookmakers, is a doubtful runner according to Eddie O'Leary.

O'Leary, racing manager for his brother Michael's Gigginstown House Stud, claims British Horseracing Authority Handicapper Phil Smith has been too harsh on the Gordon Elliott-trained eight-year-old.

A dual Cheltenham Festival winner when trained by Willie Mullins, Don Poli has finished second in the Lexus and third in the Irish Gold Cup on his last two outings.

Gigginstown won the Grand National last season with Mouse Morris' Rule The World but the then nine-year-old was retired swiftly after as connections felt he would never be given a fair crack of the whip in future Nationals.

Gigginstown is responsible for three of the top four in the weights for the Aintree showpiece but Elliott has already ruled top-weight Outlander out of the race, Empire Of Dirt has either the Ryanair or Gold Cup at Cheltenham as his main aim and it now appears there is little chance of Don Poli heading to Liverpool.

O'Leary told the Irish Independent: "Gordon has announced Outlander would not run, the simple reason he was given far too much weight - a higher mark than any horse who ran in the race in recent years.

"He (Phil Smith) wants to compress the weights so better horses get more of a chance, and that's fair enough. Yet our three top horses got 2lb more from a guy who wants to compress the weights.

"A handicapper is meant to be impartial. What I'd call the National now is a pre-Brexit, post-Brexit handicap.

"That denied him (Rule The World) a chance to come back. He's as sound and as fit as could be.

"We'll run very, very few in the race. Don Poli is doubtful, while Outlander is ruled out. Empire Of Dirt won't go."


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What a total whingebag.

What he's really saying is he wants the handicapper to be as lenient with all his runners as he was with Rule The World.

But there were reasons for Rule The World's rating.

Outlander is a serious contender for the Gold Cup. To win it he'll probably need to be at least a 175 horse. And this clown is whingeing about his being allowed to run off 166? If that's higher than his Irish rating then Smith is basically suggesting the Irish handicapper needs to have another look at his form. I imagine if Outlander were entered for an average Saturday handicap over here he'd be off at least 169.
 
To be fair, when you look at what's happening to The Crafty Butcher it's fairly clear Phil Smith just doesn't want certain Irish horses running in festival handicaps. Mal Dini is another example of a horse who'll be put out of next months festival by a single extra pound of weight. The Crafty Butcher example, actually lowering him 3lbs following his 2nd in the Paddy Power at xmas, to make sure he can't get into the Kim Muir is disgraceful. O'Leary has a point, a handicapper should be impartial.

http://m.independent.ie/sport/horse...capper-ruins-rugby-stars-dreams-35438761.html



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Looks like I'm back to the drawing-board, if neither Poli nor EoD are going to run. Between this pair and Minella Foru, I will probably still be in the red, even if I back the bleedin' winner!
 
Kauto Abu said:
To be fair, when you look at what's happening to The Crafty Butcher it's fairly clear Phil Smith just doesn't want certain Irish horses running in festival handicaps. Mal Dini is another example of a horse who'll be put out of next months festival by a single extra pound of weight. The Crafty Butcher example, actually lowering him 3lbs following his 2nd in the Paddy Power at xmas, to make sure he can't get into the Kim Muir is disgraceful. O'Leary has a point, a handicapper should be impartial.

http://m.independent.ie/sport/horse...capper-ruins-rugby-stars-dreams-35438761.html



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I could be wrong but I suspect that that rating for TCB is purely for the National. If/when he's entered for the Kim Muir, it may well be that he gets a few pounds more for that.
 
Grasshopper said:
Looks like I'm back to the drawing-board, if neither Poli nor EoD are going to run. Between this pair and Minella Foru, I will probably still be in the red, even if I back the bleedin' winner!
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I feel your pain, GH.

I backed Henri Parry Morgan back in October in the belief he'd be favourite when the weights came out, then again going into the Hennessy in anticipation of a big run there.

The fvcker never even got an entry.
 
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