The 2017 Grand National

Can't tell you how annoyed I am right now.

Don Poli is a three time race one winner. And has finished placed in about 6 grade ones.

What weight does he expect him to be carrying. I absolutely detest the O'Learys.
 
Having thought about it. He probably realises that the Irish Gold Cup, Cheltenham Gold Cup, and then the National is probably too much.

Then uses the weights as an excuse to withdraw DP and EOD. Outlander would never have gone anyway. I think it's a case of see what DP looks like a few days after the Gold Cup before making his decision.
Just a petulant child.
 
I have had a brainwave:

Phil Smith should contact the O'Learys and tell them for every pound they want off the horse's rating they should pay a £100,000 surcharge.
 
O'Leary is a prize tool there's no doubt about that but I find it impossible to side with Phil Smith.

I know the Grand National is a one-off where they've already decided they'll produce a bespoke handicap but why doesn't Phil just openly admit that he has little or no regard for Noel O'Brien and his ratings. You can't just cherry pick numbers out of the ******* air.

The Irish trainers have no idea where they stand - unless you're Gordon Elliott and you pretty much know you're going to get f*cked - so the BHA are going to restrict the Irish horses to running in GB level weight races at this rate.
 
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Re RTW...what the hell were Giggi expecting to happen after he won the world's biggest handicap steeplechase which has had its own handicap system for a few years now? You either want to win it - accepting the commensurate risk that if you do, your winner WILL go up in the handicap generally and particularly for future GNs, a risk sweetened by winning the thick end of £1m - or you don't. To try to use his retirement (which last year was "for the horse's welfare" as a sufferer of pelvic injuries and because he had "nothing left to achieve") as a dig at Smith's handicapping just makes them look foolish and as if they don't understand how the whole thing works.
 
Without seeing the debate, Chapman's taking on the handicapper on the latter's home territory - handicapping - is akin to Port Vale challenging Real Madrid to a match in the Bernabeu.

There would only ever be one winner, with due respect to Port Vale and their fans.

Beyond that, I agree with Cruella's argument.
 
Its not taking him on handicapping. He is taking him on a series of one-off variations to regular handicapping norms. Haven't seen the interview yet but I hope to, and the motivation for these is something that shouldn't go unquestioned.

Is there any non O'Leary or non Irish horse seen to be unfairly handicapped?
 
HawkWing said:
Its not taking him on handicapping. He is taking him on a series of one-off variations to regular handicapping norms. Haven't seen the interview yet but I hope to, and the motivation for these is something that shouldn't go unquestioned.
Click to expand...

Rashaan *cough*

I record the program so will look forward to seeing tonight but surely this one comes up in conversation.
 
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Ah jaysus Chapman.

Just as I type that, Phil Smith 'when in doubt, I don't punish horses' in relation to More of That. I happened to look at the previous Ask the Handicapper on Rashaan where he outlined how there is a golden rule 'when in doubt you favour the majority over the minority' justifying punishing the horse.
 
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Being new to handicapping and horse racing in general this is all new to me.

Surely the difference of between 1-5 pounds is nothing?
Or does it really make that much of a difference? I'm guessing it does, I just really fail to see how.
 
I do like Chapman, but once he had exhausted the "You can make statistics say anything" shtick - and was destroyed by Smith - he could only rely on "you've only let one Irish horse win in the last 10 years" stat, to back up his claim that Irish horses are treated unfairly in the National. It was proper entertainment, though.
 
Phil Smith's weakest point is regarding Elliott's strike rate and Irish handicapper's strike rate in England, given that there are few horses that are sent to England when deemed poorly handicapped.
 
Double J said:
Being new to handicapping and horse racing in general this is all new to me.

Surely the difference of between 1-5 pounds is nothing?
Or does it really make that much of a difference? I'm guessing it does, I just really fail to see how.
Click to expand...

As mentioned either earlier in this thread or on another recently, it depends on the distance of the race, Double J.

At 5f at Epsom 5lbs probably equates to somewhere between 1.25 and 1.5 lengths.

Over the Grand National trip, it equates to about 10 lengths, maybe even more in heavy ground.
 
Don Poli definitely ruled out by O'Leary now. Will still run at Aintree but 100% won't be the National.
Absolutely rips into Phil Smith as well for what it's worth.

Thanks to the petulant childish games from O'Leary, I'm now also a load of anti post money out of pocket. I'm sticking to betting on the day.
 
Responding to recent public comments regarding the handicapping of the Randox Health Grand National, Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping for the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), said:

“Far from making it up as I go along, my approach to the Grand National weights has been consistent for the past 18 years.

“My objective this year – and in every previous year when I have set marks the Grand National – has been to compress the weights for the top-rated horses based on their official BHA rating. My aim is simply to encourage the best horses to compete in the world’s greatest jumps race, while making sure the race remains competitive and fair.

“This year has been no different in terms of my approach or in the level of compression. Last year there was a 2lbs compression for horses at the top of the weights apart from Many Clouds (who only got 1lb). This year that compression is exactly the same.

“For example, Don Poli was agreed on 165 in the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification in May. He has since been 2nd in the Lexus and 3rd in the Irish Gold Cup and was due to run off 163. A 2lbs reduction seems more than fair. Last year he was due to run off 164 and carry 11st 9lbs. Since then he has been placed in five Grade 1’s and is now due to run off 163 and carry 11st 7lbs.

“We have maintained our own set of marks at the BHA for Irish-trained horses for 15 years. In total, my team spend around 18 hours a week keeping these up-to-date. The reason we do this is consistency and fairness. It means that whether a horse is trained in Britain or Ireland, it is the same people using the same handicapping system that sets its mark when it races in Britain.

“We do this because we want our handicaps to be as competitive and fair as possible. And it is no reflection on the competence or accuracy of the handicappers in Ireland. The Racing Post keeps their own ratings, they’re often different from ours. Timeform are often different from ours. Ireland are different from ours. It doesn’t mean they’re right or they’re wrong. What’s important is that you’re consistent with yourself.

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Over the last eight seasons, in all handicaps in Britain, 11 per cent is the Irish strike-rate and ten per cent is the UK strike-rate. I’ve no problem with it being higher, the Irish wouldn’t send one over to run out of the handicap with no chance, for instance, but it’s amazing that we’ve been able to keep it consistent for so long.

“The statistics for the Grand National also bear this out. Since 1999, there have been 11 British-trained winners from 530 runners at a strike rate of 2.1%, and 7 Irish-trained winners from 163 runners at a strike rate of 4.3%.

“I think it’s better to look at placed horses due to the larger and more statistically-reliable sample involved. Since 1999, 49 British-trained horses were placed from 530 runners, a rate of 9.2% , compared with 23 Irish-trained horses that were placed from 163 runners, a rate of 14.1%

“There is no evidence that the BHA system is biased against Irish-trained horses. In fact, it’s remarkably consistent and indeed fair, as these figures demonstrate.”
 
It's an inefficient and high-handed way of doing things, bound to create resentment.

The better approach would be for the handicappers in the two countries to meet more often and align their ratings. Why do they only meet once a year?
 
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Vicente is one of several National hopefuls running today and I understand would not receive a penalty if winning. A horse I like a lot for the main event and have taken 33/1. I backed him last night for today's trial given the ground will suit and his price for today has almost halved. Clearly he is fancied today and I taken some more at 33/1 as his price will shorten significantly should he prevail.
 
I'm of the opinion that Phil Smith has sussed em out, Elliot and O'Leary that is, J P too to a certain extent, but he's a lot shrewder.
The reason he has lowered the top weights is more to compress the handicap than to give the top weights a chance. He needs the classier animal in the race to have a lower mark so that the sneakily well handicapped horses aren't going off at level weights with horses that would normally carry a lot less than them.
What is paramount here is that every horse has an optimum distance and these people are very good at gauging it, and only a few races come along that are ideal for such horses, horses that the handicapper is powerless to raise because they otherwise don't merit it.

They are making noises and crying unfair, but don't be fooled. They're all still at it. They're bossing the handicap and all the way down they are littering it with multi entries; horses they can pull out to re-jiggle if it suits, they even have horses entered that have a qualifying mark but are ineligible to run.

I think it was a master stroke too by Smith to allow reserves, this keeps more entries taking up the latterly and final entry stages; reducing the likelihood of the richer owners withdrawing horses to get even more better handicapped ones in.
 
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Was at Haydock this affy, had wakanda in mind but in the paddock changed it to back vieux lion rouge fortunately - I did the same thing a few years ago on Party Politics - simply put just looked bigger n meaner than rest.

Anyway the interesting story apart from me n hers only winner all affy was that Fred Done was there, at the awarding he said it's dropped to what 14s now for the national, so I'll give anyone here this affy 20s. 5mins later went n piled at 20s at the betfred on course n the teller said ohhh but it's at 14s. I said your gaffer just said he'll give 20s, but there's no code for that she answers, fortunately couple of others rocked up for same bet n confirmed what I'd said. He's not my gaffer she says, believe me he is we all chipped in so OK fred's special she scribbled on it n the rest of the punters followed.

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I watched Vieux Lion Rouge closely at Cheltenham last year, then backed him at 100s and 120s for National last year. Came 7th that day in what was a mud bath.

Listened to connections and the GN was the target again this year. Backed in anti post at 66s, then again 25s then again at 20s.

Also had him at 20s for the Becher Chase. Distance for me is the worry, genuinely debating selling the bets I've made. Going to maul it over for the week before making a rash decision.
 
Nice bets, i avoid ap but this entry is nailed on and practically a stone off his back is too tempting.

I thought that about the distance myself,he looked dead on his legs after the last however ralled well n hit the line renergised I thought maybe flattered a bit by a brave blaklion being eased in last 40 yards or so. But worth adding that the pair put in a lot of energy keeping up with gas line boy and kruzlinhin, 2 of the strongest frontrunners wherever they go, for both of which I was thinking would be crying out at 2f out.

So on balance am OK with the distance now given the weight reduction and keeping up with the pace. Given its at 10s now it's a tough call to make to sell, but I'm delighted at 20/1

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