The 2017 Grand National

Maxbet said:
I'm of the opinion that Phil Smith has sussed em out, Elliot and O'Leary that is, J P too to a certain extent, but he's a lot shrewder.
The reason he has lowered the top weights is more to compress the handicap than to give the top weights a chance. He needs the classier animal in the race to have a lower mark so that the sneakily well handicapped horses aren't going off at level weights with horses that would normally carry a lot less than them.
What is paramount here is that every horse has an optimum distance and these people are very good at gauging it, and only a few races come along that are ideal for such horses, horses that the handicapper is powerless to raise because they otherwise don't merit it.

They are making noises and crying unfair, but don't be fooled. They're all still at it. They're bossing the handicap and all the way down they are littering it with multi entries; horses they can pull out to re-jiggle if it suits, they even have horses entered that have a qualifying mark but are ineligible to run.

I think it was a master stroke too by Smith to allow reserves, this keeps more entries taking up the latterly and final entry stages; reducing the likelihood of the richer owners withdrawing horses to get even more better handicapped ones in.
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Excellent post, Maxbet.

I wasn't aware about the reserves situation though. Thanks for that too.
 
Double J said:
I watched Vieux Lion Rouge closely at Cheltenham last year, then backed him at 100s and 120s for National last year. Came 7th that day in what was a mud bath.

Listened to connections and the GN was the target again this year. Backed in anti post at 66s, then again 25s then again at 20s.

Also had him at 20s for the Becher Chase. Distance for me is the worry, genuinely debating selling the bets I've made. Going to maul it over for the week before making a rash decision.
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Nice bets indeed, DJ.

VLR was only 7yo last year and ran a cracker then for one so young.

My review of last year's National says of him:

I wouldn’t necessarily jump to the conclusion that he didn’t stay just because he finished behind others that didn’t. He got a totally different tactical ride and was too young for this test. During the first half of the race he was kept wide to the rear but made significant progress going to Becher’s second time around after switching to the inside shortly after the water. He put more than five lengths between himself and Ucello Conti between the 18[SUP]th[/SUP] and Becher’s, seemingly going as well as anything, and was now alongside Rule The World. He took another five lengths off him from ten strides before the fence to jumping it. By the time they’d jumped another couple Rule The World and Ucello Conti had closed up again. He was still going well three out but came off the bit halfway to the second last and was weakening from then on. I suspect that mid-race effort would have cost him a lot of energy but I’m also wondering if, given his tender years, he was getting a proper sighter of the fences for the future. He’ll be stronger in time but he also weakened late over 4m at the festival. He certainly popped these fences, though. He’s young enough for me not to dismiss his stamina for the time being.
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The panel on the racing forum are discussing the merits of the compression right now
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nice bets indeed, DJ.

VLR was only 7yo last year and ran a cracker then for one so young.

My review of last year's National says of him:
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Nice write up, very similar to how I viewed the race myself. Never in a million years would I have picked the winner mind. Coming over the Becher the second time I was foolishly spending my 'winnings' before he won. Watching it back he came from nowhere to be in contention, which I have no doubt took it out of the horse.

I've decided I'm keeping the bets, only thing that can spare my blushes from the fortune I've lost on Don Poli AP.

Going to have a nibble at Cause of Causes and Ucello Conti in the coming days as well.

My mates banging on about 'One For Arthur' don't really know much about the horse though.
 
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Double J said:
Going to have a nibble at Cause of Causes and Ucello Conti in the coming days as well.
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If I were to be true to my beliefs I'd be against Ucello Conti:

The most interesting thing about his race was that he pretty much gave up the inside to no-one, unlike previously at Gowran when Ricou did a Willie Carson and went round as though tethered to the outside rail. He was just behind Goonyella from the start until moving on to Rule the World’s tail going to Becher’s for the second time. He was alongside him and seemingly cantering three out but came off the bit going to the next and was soon left toiling. If Gilgamboa didn’t stay then his stamina gave out more quickly. On this evidence he’d be wasting his time trying again.
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Just going off what I've seen. Certainly not a bad run last year, the ground was horrific. Followed that up with a decent run in the Becher, and again is another youngish horse who's a year wiser.

One thing I know for certain, I'll be laying Last Samuri come the day, a horse I reckon will go off as one of the favs.
The prices all depend on Don Poli, if/when he is withdrawn, most of them will come down. I reckon VLR will be single figures come the day.
 
VLR will probably be single-figures nearing the off but on the morning of the race I wouldn't be surprised if he's about 12/1 as bookies jostle for business.

As for The Last Samuri:

Took to the fences beautifully. Particularly clever at the Canal Turn both times and took The Chair and Bechers the second time round as if they weren’t there. Ran almost the textbook race – all credit to the jockey – but just beaten by the classier stayer on the day.
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I just backed Vieux Lion Rouge, One For Arthur &The Last Samuri based on three simple stats. :D

1 They all be placed at 3 miles 3 furlongs or futher. The National is the longest race in the UK, and this eliminated most runs last year but kept the winner. It also found 75% of the last 20 winners, so is a very useful guide. :thumbsup:

2 The National has the largest field in the UK, and I found a top 2 placings in a chase field of 16 or more runners a common feature amongst winners. Only 4 runners in past couple of decades didn't have this. However 2 of those did have a top 4 place. While one (Lord Gyllene ) was untried. :thumbsup:

3 Signs of improvement, or at least a sign of been able to handle it's weight. The first half is a career best RPR over chases in current season ( I use Racing Post Ratings because they consistent and I've access to a horse's full career, but any rating system will do if they meet both criteria ), the second part is the Official Ratings. If it's won with a higher or at least the same Official Ratings it has been set in the National then I know it has a chance of winning. :thumbsup:
 
Interesting, Neal1962, and good luck with those bets. They look like short-list material to me too.

But I'm curious.

Why 3m 3f as the cut-off? How much would the stats change if it was 3m 2f (which would bring a placing in the Hennessy into it) or why not 3m 4f?

Under criterion 2, did you mean only four winners?
 
O'Leary's top 3 Won't run according to him, Clarcam and The Game Changer are ineligible
 
They've all got another £1000 to pay at the next declaration stage he'll easily get in
 
an capall said:
Vicente is #50 in the weights. I presume he will get in - anybody got an educated view?
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I'd say it's 1/50 he'll get in, maybe 1/100 even.

It's #70 and more I'd worry about.

I'm doing the weights just now but haven't got to Vicente just yet. Saturday wasn't very convincing though.
 
an capall said:
Vicente is #50 in the weights. I presume he will get in - anybody got an educated view?
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Last year number 59 as the weights came out was the last one to make the cut. I'd say it's a certainty. At least if connections wanted him to, the ground was reasonable, and the horse stays sound until April 8th. Good Luck, I fancied Vicente on his Scottish National victory but seen little this year. Maybe he'll run a cracker at Cheltenham, don't see it entered anywhere but they could still enter it somewhere. If the worst comes to the worst Mon Mome was beaten 42 lengths in the same race followed by a 57 lengths beating in the Midlands National before winning the big one. :adore:
 
I created a spreadsheet that monitors the BHA and HRI ratings and compares them to the Phil Smith 'Nash rating (if anybody wants a copy PM me) and notice that two Gigginstown horses escaped without an increase from the BHA.

Road to Riches has actually been lowered 2lb from his HRI rating and his chance is there for all to see but the 50/1 would appeal more if he hadn't looked so regressive recently, albeit he was apparently lame when pulled up having been sent off a short priced jolly for the Galway Plate.

and Lord Scoundrel. He's the only one of the Giggi/Elliott combo that was left on his HRI mark. He looked a strong stayer when winning the Galway Plate last year and despite the fact nearly all his runs have been on soft or heavy ground he's by Presenting so surely he'd handle quicker conditions. He was also reported to be better going left handed a while back.

Giggi have confirmed they're pulling Outlander, Don Poli and Empire of Dirt out but will still have runners so he'd look an ideal candidate and while these were Elliott's comments at the weights launch; "Lord Scoundrel will go for the Irish Grand National this year, at the moment" it's worth noting the "at the moment" because that was when Don Poli was "definitely" going to Aintree.

Considering it's one of only two entries for the brothers Grim that can run off or below their Irish mark you'd think they'd be tempted to allow him to do so and run one or more of those that had extra lbs applied by Smith at Fairyhouse instead.

200+ on the machine has to be worthy of a speculative flutter.
 
I backed Silver Birch at 100-1 the year he won, so always on the lookout for an Elliott long-shot - Lord Scoundrel fits the bill nicely! Thanks a lot [emoji256][emoji206][emoji106]


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DO, any view on Caroles Destrier? I singled it out after the good second at 33/1 to Native Run in November. Have backed this horse a few times over the last 2 or 3 seasons. Sound jumper, generally races close to the pace which is always a bonus in the National. Weight looks pretty good to me too and have been backing to small stakes since the decs came out.
 
Yes, I backed Carole's Destrier in the Hennessy. He bombed at Chepstow. I don't know if that was because trying to make up the ground at Newbury took more out of him than staying at the front took out of Native River or whether it was an attempt to get his handicap mark reduced for the Grand National. I don't suppose we'll ever know for sure.

The handicapper has not reduced his mark (he went up 6lbs for Newbury but, like Native River, was able to run off his old mark at Chepstow) but Mulholland will feel he has unfinished business with the Grand National having seen The Druids Nephew slither to his belly when looking like running away with it a couple of years ago but I wonder if The Young Master is seen as the better prospect for the race.

On my figures he's just shy of the rating I would want for the winner but I've got him as a '+p' horse so he'll almost certainly end up on the short list.
 
I was against him on here prior to the Chepstow run, mainly on the basis that he always tends to clout a fence and around Chepstow and in a race like the Welsh National that can end a horses chances as they struggle to get back into a rhythm on the undulations. He raced very similar when PU in the Welsh Nash trial a couple of years back.

He's shown he can bounce back, efforts such as the London National and Hennessy show that he can win of a mark not much lower than this and the trip looks like being a plus, which you can't say for too many in the field. Wouldn't be for me though as despite the suggested ease in the fences I don't like his jumping.
 
I had an exchange of emails this morning on this very subject - jumping and the National.

I had mentioned Saphir Du Rheu as a possible long-term (2 years?) plot for the race and pointed out that SDR was now 7lbs lower than when sent off the heavily touted 9/2f for the Hennessy last season. He'd won the Mildmay by 15 lengths and gave The Young Master 4lbs and a 7 length beating four weeks before Newbury. To win the Hennessy off 163 he'd really need to be a 173+ horse and a Gold Cup contender but he gets in here off 156.

I was asked if I seriously believed he could jump round Aintree.

My reply was that I'd dismissed Maori Venture and Rhyme N Reason, both of which I'd had top rated, on account of their jumping. It's a mistake I vowed never to repeat. I now do not let a horse's iffy jumping history put me off backing it for the National. It's a strategy that carries risks - obviously - but sometimes those fences just make them concentrate. Just as good jumpers can sometimes overdo it and come down, so iffy jumpers can simply take to the place.

Then again, there's an element of speculation with Saphir Du Rheu. He bombed in the Hennessy and hasn't really done it since, whereas Road To Riches has proven back class at the very top level and gets to run off a pound less...
 
My view DO is that there are 40 runners and we need a way to narrow it down. For every iffy jumper there'll be winners like the two you mention but I'd be interested to know how many did indeed not make it round.

Unlike 15 years ago when weight was number 1 factor I'd say jumping and stamina doubts are my two key factors. I remember we had a thread about that; what factors people applied to the race and how much emphasis they placed on each. Interesting read that was.

Agree with your point about even the best jumpers potentially being over confident.
 
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My #1 factor will always be how well handicapped a horse is but there is plenty of merit in at least one of the three Neal1962 mentioned earlier.

I've never really bought into the weight factor thing and it's maybe even less significant now.

The only thing that really bugs me about the race now is the artificial softening of the ground. Not just watering but deliberately softening it. I think it is an entirely unfair thing to do.

In fact, I can feel a letter to the Weekender coming on...
 
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