The 2021 Longshot Thread

Mugs' double, anyone?

2000G - Thunder Moon
1000G - Thunder Beauty

142/1 the double.

Why not.

Just for fun.

Just killing time waiting for the men in white coats.
 
Slim said:
He's not going to be bigger than 33/1 in an extra place race in my opinion.
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Spot on with this, Slim. He's now pretty much halved in price almost everywhere and only one place going 20/1.

It's a positive market vibe but chickens remain uncounted.
 
Ascot 2.45 (Sagaro) - Stag Horn 20/1 - only two places going which is a bit of a bummer but Stradivarius might be worth taking on at odds-on here. I wouldn’t be confident that he could hit 125 first time up anyway but his form after the Ascot Gold Cup, his second race of last season, was all around the 115 mark. I wonder if Ascot got to him. Nayef Road is at that level already and Stag Horn and Ocean Wind are heading swiftly in that direction. At 20/1 and 8/1 respectively about the latter two I’m happy to take a little punt on Stag Horn. I've also taken him ante-post (50/1) for the Gold Cup in anticipation of a big run.
 
I've a couple of qualifiers in the 4.15 at Punchestown tomorrow but I'm waiting for the extra places and/or BOGs in the morning.

In the Stayers' Hurdle, I've also backed a couple for the sake of an interest. Saldier (20/1, 5pl) and James Du Berlais (25/1, 4pl) but will be shocked if Flooring Porter doesn't win. Saldier was thought Champion Hurdle material at one point and James Du Berlais's French rating translates to 164, the same as Flooring Porter's (which I think is very low for what he did last month).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've a couple of qualifiers in the 4.15 at Punchestown tomorrow but I'm waiting for the extra places and/or BOGs in the morning.
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Aramax 25/1 - has almost as good a chance as the well-backed Raya Time on the pick of their hurdles form.

Polished Steel 40/1, 6pl - prepped on Tuesday and is handicapped to win on his defeat of I’m A Game Changer last summer. It looks like he’s been trained for a campaign based on better ground. It’s an interesting spare ride for Danny Mullins.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Polished Steel 40/1, 6pl - prepped on Tuesday and is handicapped to win on his defeat of I’m A Game Changer last summer. It looks like he’s been trained for a campaign based on better ground. It’s an interesting spare ride for Danny Mullins.
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As Andy Capp used to say: *%$^&*#
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Stayers' Hurdle, I've also backed a couple for the sake of an interest. Saldier (20/1, 5pl) and James Du Berlais (25/1, 4pl) but will be shocked if Flooring Porter doesn't win. Saldier was thought Champion Hurdle material at one point and James Du Berlais's French rating translates to 164, the same as Flooring Porter's (which I think is very low for what he did last month).
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I wouldn't go so far as to suggest JDB would ever have beaten KD but that was a dreadful tactical ride. It looked for all the world to me like he was just there as a prep or in case KD didn't stay. Saldier also got a poor ride, possibly ridden as though stamina was in doubt and that's certainly how it looked.

Broke even on the race but after Polished Steel I'm ruing what might have been.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Polished Steel 40/1, 6pl - prepped on Tuesday and is handicapped to win on his defeat of I’m A Game Changer last summer. It looks like he’s been trained for a campaign based on better ground. It’s an interesting spare ride for Danny Mullins.
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Polished Steel was in a clear lead and going strongly when crumbling on landing two out. Nothing was guaranteed other than that he was out-running those odds so I'm keen to take the 100/1 I'm A Game Changer (4.15) today. That's by far the longest price but only to four places. I might go in again if he hits 66s to five or six places.

I should stress that I haven't done any ratings for today. I've been busy with Saturday's cards. This is just basically a punt by association but I must have rated that early-season race pretty high for Polished Steel to have been top (joint-top, to be precise).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Polished Steel was in a clear lead and going strongly when crumbling on landing two out. Nothing was guaranteed other than that he was out-running those odds so I'm keen to take the 100/1 I'm A Game Changer (4.15) today. That's by far the longest price but only to four places. I might go in again if he hits 66s to five or six places.

I should stress that I haven't done any ratings for today. I've been busy with Saturday's cards. This is just basically a punt by association but I must have rated that early-season race pretty high for Polished Steel to have been top (joint-top, to be precise).
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I was coming to put up two swings for the fences today. One was Im a Game Changer at 100/1. Cantered to win off a strong pace on good ground at Thurles. Closer to 20-25/1.

The other one was On the Sod in the Hunters Chase 28/1. Led at a furious pace at Fairyhouse (with Staker Wallace 7/1 today) and was in the balance whether he would come back in Solomon Grundy's race there. Wrong price today.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm keen to take the 100/1 I'm A Game Changer (4.15) today. That's by far the longest price but only to four places. I might go in again if he hits 66s to five or six places.
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Despite being ridden cold, picked up fourth place at 100/1. I went in again before the race for the fifth place.

I'll take it.

Pleased for HW too.
 
HawkWing said:
I was coming to put up two swings for the fences today. One was Im a Game Changer at 100/1. Cantered to win off a strong pace on good ground at Thurles. Closer to 20-25/1.

The other one was On the Sod in the Hunters Chase 28/1. Led at a furious pace at Fairyhouse (with Staker Wallace 7/1 today) and was in the balance whether he would come back in Solomon Grundy's race there. Wrong price today.
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Thanks guys. I’m a game changer never in with a shout of winning but 4th at 100/1 will do nicely. Hope you got on with someone paying the extra places (noticed most were only going 3)


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Desert Orchid said:
Polished Steel was in a clear lead and going strongly when crumbling on landing two out. Nothing was guaranteed other than that he was out-running those odds so I'm keen to take the 100/1 I'm A Game Changer (4.15) today. That's by far the longest price but only to four places. I might go in again if he hits 66s to five or six places.
Thanks for that. Couldn’t work out why I’d backed it!
I should stress that I haven't done any ratings for today. I've been busy with Saturday's cards. This is just basically a punt by association but I must have rated that early-season race pretty high for Polished Steel to have been top (joint-top, to be precise).
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A couple for tomorrow. I'd planned to hold off till the morning for BOGs and extra places but one of them has come in for some money. Both are at Newmarket.

1.50 The Gill Brothers 28/1 4pl - This one is top rated on my figures but his form is on the all-weather and I was prepared to dismiss him but I can't let a top-rated go unbacked at that price.

4.15 Lord Rapscallion 28/1 - only two places with this one but it's also top on my figures and I already felt this one was being overlooked at 25/1. However, money has come for it although it is still 28/1 in a place or two. That's unlikely to last. It's only 14/1 with Bet365.

And, for good measure, I've backed the double - 840/1. (Going for the forum record :lol:)
 
I've done
KOSHARI 505P 25/1 and LEGION OF HONOUR 2000g 40/1 5 places.i dont know who is the best in these classics but it intrigues me when someone like Varian runs what looks like a no hope.
I've also done WAARIF 240T 66/1 he won 3 in 2019 but never ran last year.had a run and this race is worth winning so at the price I've had a small interest.Tudhope rides his other which I backed in the lincoln.
 
Desert Orchid said:
And another...

Graphite 100/1 6 pl - in his second and third season in France, under the care of Andre Fabre for Godolphin, he ran six times in total, five of them at G2 or G3 level and for which he was never any more than 6/1. In the last three of those rus he got RPRs of 110, 110 and 113, indicating possible improvement. He hit 113 the following season as well but underwent a midsummer absence, presumably through injury. The following summer he presumably had his issues as Godolphin got rid of him and he moved to Simon Crisford but he never made the track for his new owners. His new owner-trainer has tons of experience with Godolphin and Varian so I wouldn't let any lack of familiarity with the name put me off.

But maybe the horse just has issues.
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Reappears today 1.50 Newmarket 80/1 4 places. Small sickness insurance premium.
 
Punchestown 2.50 - Swingbridge 25/1 (shorter to more places) - A lot of the runners’ form is in winter ground but Swingbridge hasn’t been seen since chasing home Freewheelin Dylan in the Kilbeggan National and meets him on effectively 16lbs better terms for 1¼ lengths even before taking Gainford’s claim into consideration.

Punchestown 4.30 - Roaring Bull 33/1 (longer to fewer places) - top-rated on my figures and not a lot of enthusiasm for much else in the race.
 
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viking said:
Thanks guys. I’m a game changer never in with a shout of winning but 4th at 100/1 will do nicely. Hope you got on with someone paying the extra places (noticed most were only going 3)


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Took 50s with Paddy Power in the belief I’d get BOG but I they settled at 50/1 as I’m apparently excluded from BOG (and Money Back specials and other offers). They hadn’t bothered telling me any of this. C*nts


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Punchestown 5.05 Crack Mome 40/1 5pl / 25/1 7pl - This one was only 11/1 in Labaik’s Supreme Hurdle when rated 141 after running well here in the Moscow Flyer so in theory he should have gone to become a 151 second-season hurdler but gets in here off 131. His only run since was at this meeting two years ago. Owned by Mullins’s sister, they pulled off a result with Maze Runner at the DRF and Whisky Sour led over the last the other day after a two-year absence. Darragh O'Keeffe, who was booked for Chatham Street Lad, takes over the mount but I'm not sure anything can be read into that.
 
viking said:
Took 50s with Paddy Power in the belief I’d get BOG but I they settled at 50/1 as I’m apparently excluded from BOG (and Money Back specials and other offers). They hadn’t bothered telling me any of this. C*nts
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Are you sure you're excluded?

I haven't had a bet with Betvictor for years because they stopped the BOG concession with me but I think the bookies that offer extra places basically don't offer BOGs on those races. Skybet no longer has the BOG 'tick' at oddschecker and Unibet tell you when you're placing the bet that you won't get the BOG. Hills don't allow the BOG but don't tell you so maybe that's what happens with PP?Betfair (and maybe others).

Worth people being aware, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Are you sure you're excluded?

I haven't had a bet with Betvictor for years because they stopped the BOG concession with me but I think the bookies that offer extra places basically don't offer BOGs on those races. Skybet no longer has the BOG 'tick' at oddschecker and Unibet tell you when you're placing the bet that you won't get the BOG. Hills don't allow the BOG but don't tell you so maybe that's what happens with PP?Betfair (and maybe others).

Worth people being aware, though.
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Yeah confirmed by PP today [emoji2959]


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Desert Orchid said:
4.15 Lord Rapscallion 28/1 - only two places with this one but it's also top on my figures and I already felt this one was being overlooked at 25/1. However, money has come for it although it is still 28/1 in a place or two. That's unlikely to last. It's only 14/1 with Bet365.
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Honourable second.
 
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