The 2021 Longshot Thread

I saved some money today.i never noticed my welsh national a/p non runner Eurobot was running at Leopardstown today 25/1
FELL AT THE FIRST
 
Leopardstown 1.45 - Commander Of Fleet 28/1, 4 places - you can get 33s to three places but this is a wee bit risky so I'm going with the safer option. It was a €100k handicap he won last time under top weight and those handicaps take a bit of winning so to do so off top weight is all the more commendable, on top of which he pretty much hacked up. He's probably better than a handicapper and probably better than several of those in front of him in the market.
 
Leopardstown 2.20 - Melon 25/1 - looked as good as ever last time. Price is 'way too big.

(Glutton for punishment...)
 
Leopardstown 2.20 - Petit Mouchoir 25/1 - shame there are only two places on offer but this price, in my opinion, is completely wrong. Granted, that's based on my going very high with my ratings for the County in which he was an excellent second to Belfast Banter conceding him 26lb. The winner went on to follow up in the G1 at Aintree for an OR of 144. Behind them in the County, getting plenty of weight from Petit Mouchoir, were the likes of Milkwood, Edwardstone, Third Time Lucki, etc, etc. That run suggested he was back at the same level that saw him earn RPRs in the mid-160s as a younger horse and Davy Russell is hardly a negative jockey booking.
 
Leopardstown 1.10 - Finest Evermore 25/1 - was fast-improving in the first half of last season before disappointing at odds-on and off since last December so she presumably had a problem of some sort that day. Who knows where her curve might have taken her had she been able to race on and, as a second-season novice, is entitled to improve yet again. I think the price is all wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leopardstown 2.20 - Petit Mouchoir 25/1 - shame there are only two places on offer but this price, in my opinion, is completely wrong. Granted, that's based on my going very high with my ratings for the County in which he was an excellent second to Belfast Banter conceding him 26lb. The winner went on to follow up in the G1 at Aintree for an OR of 144. Behind them in the County, getting plenty of weight from Petit Mouchoir, were the likes of Milkwood, Edwardstone, Third Time Lucki, etc, etc. That run suggested he was back at the same level that saw him earn RPRs in the mid-160s as a younger horse and Davy Russell is hardly a negative jockey booking.
Click to expand...

Did far too much in the first mile, getting into a dog fight with Saint Roi for the lead.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Did far too much in the first mile, getting into a dog fight with Saint Roi for the lead.
Click to expand...

Champion Hurdle - Saint Roi 40/1 - I managed to get the price shortly after the race while other bookies had slashed it. Deserves a huge mark-up for going a suicidal pace up front and still not beaten far at the line with the other front-runner Petit Mouchoir fading out the back of the telly.

There's a fair chance he won't actually go for the race but if Epatante is the best JP has over here then I don't see why Saint Roi shouldn't be allowed to take his chance. He might also have a shout off likely top-weight in the County off 155, assuming the handicapper leaves him alone.
 
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