The 2022 Derby Thread

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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I don't see one but if there is maybe a mod could merge?

The obvious place to start is that, right now, it would seem it is Luxembourg's to lose.

I'm still happy with the 33s Eydon I took after the Craven meeting. "Fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby" and all that...

So what cases would anyone make for anything else?
 
If I had to have a bet at the moment I'd either be backing the current favourite Luxembourg to win or an each way on Point Lonsdale.

We shouldn't completely rule out Point Lonsdale, as not appearing to stay the Guineas mile doesn't necessarily mean he can't run a big race at Epsom in June.

I rememeber Sholokov who didn't even have as good a two year old career as Point Lonsdale and who was also well beat in the Guineas but then went on to finish second in an Irish Derby and another second in an Eclipse.

Has Aidan made any comment about Point Lonsdale since Saturday?
 
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LUXEMBOURG
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(IRE) b. C, 2019 {8-f} DP = 4-2-12-8-0 (26) DI = 0.86 CD = 0.08

POINT LONSDALE
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(IRE) b. C, 2019 {1-c} DP = 2-0-12-6-0 (20) DI = 0.67 CD = -0.10

Dosages can be accessed here:

Thoroughbred Horse Pedigree Query
 
O'Brien said: "Point Londsale might not have been as ready as I thought he was. It was his first run and he got a bit tired. He'll stay further and I have absolutely no doubt he'll leave that run well behind him."
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't see one but if there is maybe a mod could merge?

The obvious place to start is that, right now, it would seem it is Luxembourg's to lose.

I'm still happy with the 33s Eydon I took after the Craven meeting. "Fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby" and all that...

So what cases would anyone make for anything else?
Click to expand...

Varian said “we’re looking to run him (Eydon) in the Derby, but whether it’s at Epsom or Chantilly is still too early to call.”
 
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New London
Walk Of Stars
Desert Crown

This could end up being one of the better races in recent years. It doesn't look like Aidan has anything for Chester that could really shorten up. It's Luxenbourg/Point Lonsdale or nothing for him. I suspect nothing.
 
barjon said:
Varian said “we’re looking to run him (Eydon) in the Derby, but whether it’s at Epsom or Chantilly is still too early to call.”
Click to expand...

Varian is the quiet type who will checkout every angle before deciding.

If the connections were mad keen ongoing for the Guineas, I imagine they'll be keen to head for Epsom but with ante-post there's always that nagging doubt about whether you'll get a run for your money.

In terms of his looks, nobody had a bad word to say about him at the weekend there. I'm sure someone said that in terms of size he was in the same ball park as Native Trail.
 
Luxembourg has had a setback. Find out how bad it is in next few days according to Aidan.
 
The conspiracy theorist in me is whispering to me that this is a ruse to get much bigger odds about Luxembourg.

Take him out of the race and we're looking at the next highest rated contenders being rated around the 114 mark. That would make it distinctly substandard.

There's still the Dante and Irish Guineas, plus maybe Lingfield, to possibly throw up a new favourite but my finger is twitching over the 6/1 Luxembourg...
 
Desert Orchid said:
The conspiracy theorist in me is whispering to me that this is a ruse to get much bigger odds about Luxembourg.
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They would never want a future stallion to be seen to be injury prone. What they make out of betting is the equvilant of one grain of sand on the breeding beach.
 
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I wouldn't be suggesting they do it for themselves; more to allow the staff to get a decent price.

But they do gamble. Of that I'm certain.

I've never forgotten the post-race remark caught on camera after one of Istabraq's CH wins. While punters were celebrating and cheering the winner, O'Brien and his entourage were still watching the finish. When Theatreworld overtook French Holly on the run-in for second, one of them said to O'Brien, "That's the gamble landed!"

But I can't help my penchant for conspiracies :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't be suggesting they do it for themselves; more to allow the staff to get a decent price.

But they do gamble. Of that I'm certain.

I've never forgotten the post-race remark caught on camera after one of Istabraq's CH wins. While punters were celebrating and cheering the winner, O'Brien and his entourage were still watching the finish. When Theatreworld overtook French Holly on the run-in for second, one of them said to O'Brien, "That's the gamble landed!"

But I can't help my penchant for conspiracies :)
Click to expand...

They bet on the day now and very close to the off. This year they actually bet Point Lonsdale for the Derby ante post.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't be suggesting they do it for themselves; more to allow the staff to get a decent price.

But they do gamble. Of that I'm certain.

I've never forgotten the post-race remark caught on camera after one of Istabraq's CH wins. While punters were celebrating and cheering the winner, O'Brien and his entourage were still watching the finish. When Theatreworld overtook French Holly on the run-in for second, one of them said to O'Brien, "That's the gamble landed!"

But I can't help my penchant for conspiracies :)
Click to expand...

I think it was Dessie Scahill who said gamble landed -as far as I can remember Aidan had a 5K bet for the stable staff on Theatreworld without Istabraq -I can't remember the odds.In all fairness Theatreworld was the hurdling equivalent of Youmzain.
 
LUKE said:
I think it was Dessie Scahill who said gamble landed -as far as I can remember Aidan had a 5K bet for the stable staff on Theatreworld without Istabraq -I can't remember the odds.In all fairness Theatreworld was the hurdling equivalent of Youmzain.
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That story has grown wings over the years.
 
Slim said:
That story has grown wings over the years.
Click to expand...

I saw and heard it myself on TV. I phoned the brother straight away to tell him what I'd seen and heard. It hasn't grown wings in my head.

"That's the gamble landed!" were the actual words.
 
I've maybe just thrown away some dosh but I've taken 14/1 Nations Pride. It doesn't hold an entry so will need to be supplemented but what it did the other day is right up there with anything outside of the front three in the Guineas and I can't see them not supplementing it, in which case it will halve in price.
 
And you can’t not be impressed by Stone Age just now. That was a serious performance.
 
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