Ian_Davies
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Sorry, Maureen, I only just saw this - the race has been and gone.
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The 2025 Belmont Stakes
- Thread starter Ian_Davies
- Start date
Ian_Davies
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I'm guessing Maureen's had a five shillings to two Sierra Leone! 
Ian_Davies
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Brief Man v His Own Data Model Story....
I have various projects on the go at any one time and this kinda illustrates it.
Though much of my betting is what I call "manual," I do run data models for some things and I have one for high-end USA dirt and Turf racing.
I ran it on the Whitney and it threw up an 80% of maximum stake bet on Sierra Leone and no other bet on the race.
But as many will know I am convinced the horse needs all of 1m2f in a strongly-run race to be seen at his best so, while I obeyed the model and bet accordingly, I "manually" had a few thankfully much smaller bets on the race as well.
The final result
Data Model One
Bloke Who Programmed It Nil
Luckily Sierra Leone didn't even start favourite and I made a half-decent profit on the race - but I found myself irrationally resenting the smart arse little AI bastard just the same.
I have various projects on the go at any one time and this kinda illustrates it.
Though much of my betting is what I call "manual," I do run data models for some things and I have one for high-end USA dirt and Turf racing.
I ran it on the Whitney and it threw up an 80% of maximum stake bet on Sierra Leone and no other bet on the race.
But as many will know I am convinced the horse needs all of 1m2f in a strongly-run race to be seen at his best so, while I obeyed the model and bet accordingly, I "manually" had a few thankfully much smaller bets on the race as well.
The final result
Data Model One
Bloke Who Programmed It Nil
Luckily Sierra Leone didn't even start favourite and I made a half-decent profit on the race - but I found myself irrationally resenting the smart arse little AI bastard just the same.
Cheers, he wins ugly. Won't do anything for his stallion prospects but he doesn't shirk any challenge! Needs that long trip or things to set up well pace wise. Only going to be one winner from top of last bend!
Ian_Davies
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I really like Fierceness.
He looked amazing when he won the Florida Derby, but you had to wonder what he beat and he blew out at Kentucky.
However, I thought he showed great attitude to win the Travers in a War with Thorpedo Anna and did really well to be runner up to Sierra Leone (who came from the next zip code to win it) in the Classic after lying so close to a mad early pace.
He's had a few very hard races now and I just wonder if it's taking its toll.
He looked amazing when he won the Florida Derby, but you had to wonder what he beat and he blew out at Kentucky.
However, I thought he showed great attitude to win the Travers in a War with Thorpedo Anna and did really well to be runner up to Sierra Leone (who came from the next zip code to win it) in the Classic after lying so close to a mad early pace.
He's had a few very hard races now and I just wonder if it's taking its toll.
Ian_Davies
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And he won by a furlong.
IIRC, he had been impressive in the BC Juvenile then got turned over in some nothing race first time out as a 3yo.
IIRC, he had been impressive in the BC Juvenile then got turned over in some nothing race first time out as a 3yo.
Nothing worse in laying one setting it's own fractions unattended in the US.
Ian_Davies
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Decent race at Saratoga coming up, then it's the Arlington Million at Colonial Downs.
I've got an Arlington Million story from 1983 I'm going to tell on my unofficial blog either tonight or on Sunday morning - so you might want to log off for 24 hours to give it the old body swerve.
I've got an Arlington Million story from 1983 I'm going to tell on my unofficial blog either tonight or on Sunday morning - so you might want to log off for 24 hours to give it the old body swerve.
Ian_Davies
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Great ride from Flavian Prat on El Cordobes just now at Saratoga imo.
Balls of steel.
Danny
Journeyman
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2013
- Messages
- 2,446
Thought people might find this interesting if they haven't come across her before Erma Lee Scott. Who'd have thought at the highest level of racing there would be someone this wholesome just spreading her grandma love to the horses. Wouldn't be a bad feature for some of the main racing media to pick up on, against the anti racing brigade. Who could hate on Erma ?
Ian_Davies
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Five cracking Grade 1s at Saratoga "Graveyard Of Fsvourites" tonight.
Sovereignty 2/5 on the Morning Line for the Travers!
Sovereignty 2/5 on the Morning Line for the Travers!
Ian_Davies
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My data model for USA racing told me to have an 80% of maximum stake on Thorpedo Anna and I'm still recovering from that!
Ian_Davies
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I thought she was beat tbh - it was, as Truncheon said, an incredible race and, as you said, Luke, a never-say-die ride.
Ian_Davies
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Sovereignty was long odds-on and won a long way in the end, but IMO that doesn't tell the full story.
IMO he needs every yard of a truly-run 1m2f to be seen to best effect and Junior Alvarado intelligently made sure he was never far away and made his move well before turning for home.
Sovereignty had made relatively heavy weather of winning the 1m1f Jim Dandy after swerving the Haskell, but he was in his element here.
Great stuff.
IMO he needs every yard of a truly-run 1m2f to be seen to best effect and Junior Alvarado intelligently made sure he was never far away and made his move well before turning for home.
Sovereignty had made relatively heavy weather of winning the 1m1f Jim Dandy after swerving the Haskell, but he was in his element here.
Great stuff.
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