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The 2025 Belmont Stakes
- Thread starter Ian_Davies
- Start date
Robicheaux
Apprentice
Looking at Kentucky tomorrow night. Wimbledon Hawkeye looks very short at 7/4. May find the ground a bit too quick as well. Hill Road interests me a bit. Stepping down in grade + back on turf. ( Derby 22.46 ).
In the sprint ( 21.52 ) I reckon Khaadem has been targeted at this since runner up last year. Conditions ideal. 4/1 a bit skinny though. A case of wait + see I think.
In the sprint ( 21.52 ) I reckon Khaadem has been targeted at this since runner up last year. Conditions ideal. 4/1 a bit skinny though. A case of wait + see I think.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Never rule out Fierceness!
Ian_Davies
Conditional
FWIW my data model bets: 4/6 Journalism, 6/4 Fierceness and you can forget the rest.
It's a tad opinionated (a bit like the bloke who programmed it).
And it's not always right (a bit like the bloke who programmed it).
It's a tad opinionated (a bit like the bloke who programmed it).
And it's not always right (a bit like the bloke who programmed it).
Barnestormer
Amateur Rider
Journalism 11/10 currently on Skybet
Ian_Davies
Conditional
I'm getting too old for West Coast races - staying up until gone 2am to watch live will knacker my Circadian Rhythm (that's male Hyacinth Bouquet speak for sleeping pattern) for a MONTH, but this looks an absolute cracker of a race and a chance to see how good the cream of the USA middle-distance 3yos really are.
I could be wrong, but I rate Fierceness the main danger to Journalism.
He's in and out, but Fierceness has run some monstrous races on his going days.
And tomorrow, at a more Godly hour, Sierra Leone renews rivalry with Mindframe at Saratoga.
It's all going on!
I could be wrong, but I rate Fierceness the main danger to Journalism.
He's in and out, but Fierceness has run some monstrous races on his going days.
And tomorrow, at a more Godly hour, Sierra Leone renews rivalry with Mindframe at Saratoga.
It's all going on!
Barnestormer
Amateur Rider
I would have thought that a horse that had won six of its last eight starts and it's two defeats were runner up to Sovereignty would have to be odds on.
Tempted to put it on the will win thread
Tempted to put it on the will win thread
Ian_Davies
Conditional
I was on Burnham Square at 28 win only there - just when I thought I couldn't dislike Dettori any more than I already do....he picked up Wimbledon Hawkeye and carried it home there tbf.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Agreed.
Robicheaux
Apprentice
"Fan". Great jockey. Always has been. In the twilight of his career. He got it done. Jackpot for connections.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
I agree with Robicheaux.
No, I don't like the bloke, but that doesn't stop me recognising he is one of the outstanding jockeys of his era.
And he just showed there he's still got it.
No, I don't like the bloke, but that doesn't stop me recognising he is one of the outstanding jockeys of his era.
And he just showed there he's still got it.
Robicheaux
Apprentice
Didn't bother with Khaadem. Little value imo.
Had a bet on Hill Road 17s on the machine. Well done Dettori n Hawkeye.
Had a bet on Hill Road 17s on the machine. Well done Dettori n Hawkeye.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
You oppose the "Beast From The East" at your absolute peril!
Fierceness is a riddle wrapped in a conundrum: Wins a decent Breeders' Cup Juvenile in a style seldom seen since Arazi, gets turned over in some nothing race at 1/5, wins the Florida Derby by 13½ like he's the Second Coming, blows out in the Kentucky Derby, floors Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy, floors Thorpedo Anna as well as Sierra Leone in the Travers, floored by Sierra Leone after sitting close to an insane early pace in the Breeders' Cup Classic, wins back at Churchill Downs first time out, floored at odds-on in the Metropolitan Handicap, only fifth to Sierra Leone in the Whitney and now beats Journalism by 3¼ in the Pacific Classic.
You could never have "the lot" on him, but if you take him on as he's as likely as not to cut you down.
What a horse - what a race.
Journalism, a 3yo, has had a fair few hard races, but then so has Fierceness the last year or so.
And if you think Journalism lost the race with a slow start, or was given too much to do - well, that's not the first time he's raced that way, that's kinda him.
Optically, it looks like Fierceness has copped for the better ride, but he's got the tactical mid-race speed, when he's on a going day, to make any jockey look good.
If he's in this mood come autumn, and maybe sits a bit further off any mad early fractions this time, Fierceness will give Sierra Leone plenty to think about.
All IMO.
Looking forward to Sierra Leone tonight now.
My USA data model bet: 4/6 Journalism and 6/4 Fierceness at Del Mar and the latter has won at 2.87/1 on the machine, so I connived a profit, though Burnham Square - 28 win only! - narrowly beaten at Kentucky Downs, was the one I really wanted for the dollars last night.
FWIW, my model bets: 1/4 Sierra Leone, 4/1 Mindframe and forget the rest at Saratoga tonight.
I personally, as always, think Sierra Leone is heavily dependent on something else setting a strong pace for him to come off and, if Mindframe's jockey can get first run on Sierra Leone off modest early fractions, Mindframe might beat Sierra Leone again, even over the extra furlong which Sierra Leone will love.
But my model is right more often than I am - that's why I wrote it and listen to it - we shall see!
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Slim
Rookie
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2019
- Messages
- 4,155
Put your model in the f$%^ing bin and start again.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
I can't do that - it's better than me!
My USA model is an early example of AI taking over the world - I'm effectively just it's "beard," putting on for it.
Fortunately it lets me keep all the profits - for now!
Barnestormer
Amateur Rider
Well done Ian - I didn't back Journalism as 11/10 is too short for me to play.
One thing I have noticed is that when the American jockeys ride their mounts cold and it doesn't pay off their stock answer after is 'it didn’t give me the same feel'
Bollocks it's just a good job there not riding for Johnnie G as they would be out on their arse pronto.
On a side note years ago I was watching the stateside racing and even I was shocked when the race commentator described the waiting tactics employed by the rider as 'he was trying to deliver the vinegar stroke there'
One thing I have noticed is that when the American jockeys ride their mounts cold and it doesn't pay off their stock answer after is 'it didn’t give me the same feel'
Bollocks it's just a good job there not riding for Johnnie G as they would be out on their arse pronto.
On a side note years ago I was watching the stateside racing and even I was shocked when the race commentator described the waiting tactics employed by the rider as 'he was trying to deliver the vinegar stroke there'
Len Madeiros
Journeyman
Nice touch again, Ian - thank you! You know your American racing too, marvellous.
Missed it. Set the alarm but fell asleep listening to a podcast about the lead up to 1066 and I’ve realised the sound of someone talking overrides the sound of the alarm clock. It did wake me but not instantly and by then it was too late…
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Easily done - I'm a big 1066 fan and even visited the battlefield back in the day.
Just for you, Maureen:
Len Madeiros
Journeyman
Beautiful burst of mid-race acceleration! Left them all flat-footed. Fierceness is my new favourite horse.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Bad incident at Saratoga there.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
They don't seem as fussed about serving the on-course market by sticking to post time schedules as over here, that's for sure.
They do seem to me to be significantly better at getting the horses into the stalls, though.
Horrible incident in that race and it left Sierra Leone a very unlucky loser in my book.
Goes without saying I hope Irad Ortiz and Mindframe are ok:
They do seem to me to be significantly better at getting the horses into the stalls, though.
Horrible incident in that race and it left Sierra Leone a very unlucky loser in my book.
Goes without saying I hope Irad Ortiz and Mindframe are ok:
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