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The 2025 December Gold Cup Handicap Chase

I think someone on here backed this one..............................

"It's a shame that Venetia has kept L'Homme Presse in this handicap as otherwise Herakles Westwood would have been nicely in at the bottom rather than 9lb out of the weights. He showed last time when 2nd in the amateurs' chase here over slightly shorter that he looks destined for a good career in long-distance chases. Hoping for a run in the money. with the champ to do the business."
 
Robicheaux said:
When I was at Cheltenham last month. Got talking to an Irish fellow, who gave a good word for Kim Roque that day. 2nd with a gentle ride. Whiffs of a plot job to me for this on saturday. At the price, not for me.
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I backed this last time and he ran a nice race. As you say the price is plenty short enough but he's massively unexposed. Could be anything....just the sort I like ;)

I'm also going back with Il Ridoto. He needs this quicker ground and he's back down on 141 which is the same mark he was on when he won the PP last year. And we all know the PN likes to have a decent Saturday once in a while. He's about 12s which seems a nice ew price to me.
 
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Slim said:
Question:

Is everyone overthinking this race?

Jagwar looks an absolute good thing..
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That was the way my thinking was heading when I looked at the race on Thursday but I watched the Mackeson again and decided Vincenzo would be my main bet.

He was up with the strong pace and the one still to be there at the end, putting distance between himself and everything bar HJS.

I also noticed that on the run from the top of the hill the jockey took him down the inside whereas Panic Attack HJS and others came wide on the better ground.

And then PA went and smashed a strong Hennessy field to bits.
 
Outsider said:
I think hoe joly smoke should be thereabouts but I'm taking a chance with G A Law 25/1
Robbi thinks Isabel Ryder is good value for her 7lb claim which means GA carries a mark of 147 its lowest for 3 years and they have been running it over too far or races it couldn't win imo.
2 races ago he was 3rd to Gaelic warrior in the Oaksey chase beaten 5L only getting 2lb. Over 2m 6f.
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NR 🤬
 
With the forecast for Cheltenham today a balmy 9C I’m thinking the going might be heading towards good, in which case I’ll take a chance on Il Ridoto.
 
Purely from a handicapping point of view, Il Ridoto and Martator stand out as the best on their best form but this race, for me, is seldom about the best in on past form. It's much more about what's best in on likely future form, which is why the second-season novices and Kim Roque (first season) appeal most to me.

They are, in racecard order:

Jagwar
Imperial Saint
Vincenzo
Hoe Joly Smoke
(& Kim Roque)

They could easily fill the first five places.
 
For anyone interested.......

LAY OF THE DAY.....
1350 Cheltenham Jagwar

Was subject of a lot of talk but has been overtaken by a gamble on the Irish horse Kim Roque.
Jagwar was always going to be a lay in this race as the trends are in our favour.
Top weights have a record of 1/11.
Out of the last 11, all have been won by Horses that have at least 1 run in the last 40 days.
Jagwar is top weight and hasn’t raced for 275 days so does lack race fitness.
He finished last season off at Cheltenham off a mark of 139 carrying 10st 10lbs which put hi in the middle of the handicap.
He’s never been top of the weights and has always enjoyed a good weight concession when winning.
He’s never carried more than 11st 7lbs over fences, but it is only a small rise of 1lb on that figure today.
For me, this is the day to take it on. It may well go on to better things but that lack of a run, and its position in the weight does make it opposable today.
 
luckyme said:

1.50 - Cheltenham - Hoe Joly Smoke​

Hoe Joly Smoke runs in the big race of the day here, and I think the track will suit him. He finished third the last day here in what was a great run and I think the new track will suit him even more. I'm very happy with the work he's done at home; he's jumped beautifully this week and, again, there aren't really any negatives to say about him... I'm looking forward to it.
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two question marks for me:

This may be too short and I wonder whether he might prefer a RH course. Just niggles but enough to put me off.

Good luck though mate
 

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