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The 2025 Derby
- Thread starter Ian_Davies
- Start date
Ian_Davies
Conditional
I've talked about possible parallels with 1983 and Teenoso's year - that kind of overnight/on the day rain has not yet occurred.
Another year I recall was 2014.
I was on Australia ante-post at 8/1, a price I had forced myself to take after he had beaten Free Eagle as a 2yo at Leopardstown.
I was impressed but, having grown up in an era where Shergar was the same odds after winning the Classic Trial by ten lengths at Sandown Park at three, I wanted the Moon on a stick when it came to ante-post prices.
Anyway, fast forward past going to Newmarket to see him finish a creditable third to Night Of Thunder and Kingman in the 2,000 Guineas, morning of The Derby and I'm having breakfast in Epsom.
As I recall there was a thunderstorm and, as I believed Australia to ideally want a resilient surface, I wasn't a happy bunny.
But the rain relented, the Sun came out and by the time I got to walk the course circa lunchtime, it was as if the storm had never happened.
It really can go either way and every year is ultimately, in its own way, unique.
Another year I recall was 2014.
I was on Australia ante-post at 8/1, a price I had forced myself to take after he had beaten Free Eagle as a 2yo at Leopardstown.
I was impressed but, having grown up in an era where Shergar was the same odds after winning the Classic Trial by ten lengths at Sandown Park at three, I wanted the Moon on a stick when it came to ante-post prices.
Anyway, fast forward past going to Newmarket to see him finish a creditable third to Night Of Thunder and Kingman in the 2,000 Guineas, morning of The Derby and I'm having breakfast in Epsom.
As I recall there was a thunderstorm and, as I believed Australia to ideally want a resilient surface, I wasn't a happy bunny.
But the rain relented, the Sun came out and by the time I got to walk the course circa lunchtime, it was as if the storm had never happened.
It really can go either way and every year is ultimately, in its own way, unique.
Ian_Davies
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At 7am the Hogsmill rain gauge in Ewell, the closest government live gauge to the track, read 2.4mm rain in the last 24 hours.
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Ian_Davies
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Andrew Cooper, CoC: "Update from @EpsomRacecourse. 2.2mm rain in the early hours of Saturday, but with a drying day yesterday (3mm evapotranspiration) and fresh last 1 mile, going now Good, Good to Soft in places. Shower risk kicks in from mid-morning."
edgt
Senior Jockey
Yellow rain warning for south east with risk of flooding and power outages in places.
To think Ever Ready used sponsor the race.
Hope all goes well for all concerned.
To think Ever Ready used sponsor the race.
Hope all goes well for all concerned.
Ian_Davies
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Racing Post: The going at Epsom improved to good, good to soft in places on Saturday morning but a significant amount of rain could yet influence conditions ahead of The Derby.
The official description at the end of Friday's Oaks card was good to soft and it was updated to good, good to soft in places on both the five-furlong and Derby courses at 7am this morning.
However, a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms has been issued from 9am to 6pm and today's feature event could be run on soft ground.
Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said: "Undoubtedly we dried throughout racing yesterday and we lost 3mm through evapotranspiration, which isn't insignificant. We've also dropped the rails to the fresh, inside mile. Walking it this morning, I wouldn't call it any slower than good, good to soft in places, with a lot of good.
"We had 2.2mm of rain in the early hours of this morning and the forecast shows that by 10 or 11am we're going to be at risk of showers, some of which could be heavy and that's where we've sat for 72 hours. There will be places that won't see anything and there will be places that see a hell of a lot of rain.
"Showers of up to 10mm are the sort of things that the Met Office team I spoke to last night say can happen."
The official description at the end of Friday's Oaks card was good to soft and it was updated to good, good to soft in places on both the five-furlong and Derby courses at 7am this morning.
However, a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms has been issued from 9am to 6pm and today's feature event could be run on soft ground.
Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said: "Undoubtedly we dried throughout racing yesterday and we lost 3mm through evapotranspiration, which isn't insignificant. We've also dropped the rails to the fresh, inside mile. Walking it this morning, I wouldn't call it any slower than good, good to soft in places, with a lot of good.
"We had 2.2mm of rain in the early hours of this morning and the forecast shows that by 10 or 11am we're going to be at risk of showers, some of which could be heavy and that's where we've sat for 72 hours. There will be places that won't see anything and there will be places that see a hell of a lot of rain.
"Showers of up to 10mm are the sort of things that the Met Office team I spoke to last night say can happen."
Considering I have backed Lambourn 13 /1 I had to have a pound ew on Lazy Griff at 100/1.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 27,896
Today's Turftrax report:
Weather:
3.4mm rain Tuesday afternoon. Dry Wednesday.
7mm rain Thursday.
1mm rain Friday.
2.2mm rain early hours of Saturday. Currently dry.
Showers possible through Saturday, some of which could be heavy. Breezy. Temperatures mid to high teens.
The map isn't up yet. I'll add it if it does come up.
Weather:
3.4mm rain Tuesday afternoon. Dry Wednesday.
7mm rain Thursday.
1mm rain Friday.
2.2mm rain early hours of Saturday. Currently dry.
Showers possible through Saturday, some of which could be heavy. Breezy. Temperatures mid to high teens.
The map isn't up yet. I'll add it if it does come up.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 27,896
My ramblings on the race:
I’ve inserted columns to cover dosage profiles and striding patterns because this is a new test for many in such an important race. Where the column is blank it is because there is no information. I have had The Lion In Winter at 20/1 since last season but it was clear from the finish of Friday’s Oaks that Moore will be allowed to beat him if he is in a position to do so. However, there must be doubts about Delacroix at the trip. The first one on the list with no doubts about the trip is Lazy Griff so he is worth a pop at long odds. In fact, I will have something on all the three-figure-price horses with ticks in both boxes. I have now backed The Lion In Winter at 33/1 for the Arc in case an autumn campaign has been the plan all along. I’m on Tornado Alert and Nightwalker at 100/1 so I’m happy to have them onside. I want Ruling Court to win but he isn’t guaranteed to stay and the ground might turn against him. They’re talking about pulling him out if it goes too soft. Pride Of Arras might end up winning by default. It’s hard to know at this point if it’s the good Derby it has the potential to be or the Donkey Derby it might end up being.
Edit - Delacroix should have a '?' in his dosage box.
I’ve inserted columns to cover dosage profiles and striding patterns because this is a new test for many in such an important race. Where the column is blank it is because there is no information. I have had The Lion In Winter at 20/1 since last season but it was clear from the finish of Friday’s Oaks that Moore will be allowed to beat him if he is in a position to do so. However, there must be doubts about Delacroix at the trip. The first one on the list with no doubts about the trip is Lazy Griff so he is worth a pop at long odds. In fact, I will have something on all the three-figure-price horses with ticks in both boxes. I have now backed The Lion In Winter at 33/1 for the Arc in case an autumn campaign has been the plan all along. I’m on Tornado Alert and Nightwalker at 100/1 so I’m happy to have them onside. I want Ruling Court to win but he isn’t guaranteed to stay and the ground might turn against him. They’re talking about pulling him out if it goes too soft. Pride Of Arras might end up winning by default. It’s hard to know at this point if it’s the good Derby it has the potential to be or the Donkey Derby it might end up being.
Edit - Delacroix should have a '?' in his dosage box.
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Ian_Davies
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Thanks, Maurice.
As I never tire of saying, you never know until much later as The Derby is a beginning, not an ending.
It was meant to be a 4/1 the field lousy renewal of the race in 1979.
Troy (Irish Derby, King George, Benson & Hedges) won by seven from Dickens Hill (Eclipse) with Northern Baby (Champion Stakes) another three lengths back in third.
And the fourth-placed jolly, Ela-Mana-Mou, won the Eclipse and the King George the next year.
Never speak too soon!
As I never tire of saying, you never know until much later as The Derby is a beginning, not an ending.
It was meant to be a 4/1 the field lousy renewal of the race in 1979.
Troy (Irish Derby, King George, Benson & Hedges) won by seven from Dickens Hill (Eclipse) with Northern Baby (Champion Stakes) another three lengths back in third.
And the fourth-placed jolly, Ela-Mana-Mou, won the Eclipse and the King George the next year.
Never speak too soon!
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 27,896
I thought Troy was a certainty that day. Couldn't believe the price.
But I'd forgotten how good a race that turned out to be.
But I'd forgotten how good a race that turned out to be.
Ian_Davies
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Last Derby winner to win at Goodwood on his previous outing?
By seven lengths from Serge Lifar in the Predominate.
Loved Troy.
By seven lengths from Serge Lifar in the Predominate.
Loved Troy.
Ian_Davies
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5f: 6.6, rest: 6.5 at 9am.
It's actually f*****g dried out a bit since yesterday!
It's actually f*****g dried out a bit since yesterday!
Generous1991
Amateur Rider
There are very heavy showers about, but if they miss Epsom then 8s on the exchange about Ruling Court has to be tempting5f: 6.6, rest: 6.5 at 9am.
It's actually f*****g dried out a bit since yesterday!
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Yes, rain could yet hit the track in substance, but right now I think the chances of Ruling Court getting withdrawn are receding, put it that way.
I think if Epsom dodges the rain, they'll fancy their chances and I still think on Good ground he's even money to properly stay the trip.
And if the winner of a decent 2,000 Guineas properly stays at Epsom, he either wins The Derby or what beats him wins it.
I think if Epsom dodges the rain, they'll fancy their chances and I still think on Good ground he's even money to properly stay the trip.
And if the winner of a decent 2,000 Guineas properly stays at Epsom, he either wins The Derby or what beats him wins it.
Generous1991
Amateur Rider
I'll take the chance, in small size
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 4,511
It’s 1965, we’re into the last two and I Say has stolen a couple of lengths in front. Where the hell is Seabird back in the pack. The guy next to me shouts “Seabird wins” as the afterburners explode and off he goes to win going away. My mind plays it through time and again.
As for today, the Dante is said to have been pretty weak. Maybe, maybe not, but you surely can’t fail to have been impressed by the winner Pride of Arras and if he wins Damysus won’t be far away.
Ps: oops, put it on wrong thread - well half of it anyway!
As for today, the Dante is said to have been pretty weak. Maybe, maybe not, but you surely can’t fail to have been impressed by the winner Pride of Arras and if he wins Damysus won’t be far away.
Ps: oops, put it on wrong thread - well half of it anyway!
Generous1991
Amateur Rider
According to the Met Office the most likely time for rain at Epsom is about 3pm... At which time heavy rain is a near certainty! I'm going to have to wait until the last minute...
Generous1991
Amateur Rider
I've been looking at the weather map on the Met Office site for Epsom Downs Racecourse, watching the forecast clouds rolling in in 15 minute increments!
The weather map actually predicts no rain clouds hitting the racecourse until just about race time.
So, I have just taken some 9/1 Ruling Court on the exchange.
If nothing else, I reckon the price will be lower by early afternoon.
The weather map actually predicts no rain clouds hitting the racecourse until just about race time.
So, I have just taken some 9/1 Ruling Court on the exchange.
If nothing else, I reckon the price will be lower by early afternoon.
Chunky Monkey
Amateur Rider
I will feel less cheated as it sounds very similar to my very small stakes mug punter combination tricast
Barnestormer
Amateur Rider
You can presently get 100/30 Ruling Court to finish in the first three with Bet Victor.
Mind you they offered 9/4 the Appleby horse to win the Oaks yesterday so they priced that right.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 27,896
3/1, £5 max.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
To anyone who arbs it on the machine to give themselves a quid or two profit to nothing: "The angels will weep for you!"
That said, there is no such thing as a bad profit!
That said, there is no such thing as a bad profit!
Ian_Davies
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The time of the first race suggests the ground is drying out all the time.
