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The 2025 Glorious Goodwood Day 3 (Thursday) thread

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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The Nassau, the Richmond, the Gordon and five other races - it's a bit like the loaded fries scam aimed at Generation X - a load of chips topped with a thin veneer of quality.
 
I am a bit surprised Super Soldier is a double-digit (12/1 best from 14s) price for the Richmond.

I thought his pilot managed to find trouble in running in the small-field Prix Robert-Papin and he was an unlucky loser.

Plus I like to think tipping up a horse based on French form and using terms like "Prix Robert-Papin," "Chantilly" and "Gallic raider" is the quintessential Gaylord way to approach any contest.

Bonne chance.
 
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The 1.20 is the old Extel Handicap - I was there when Luca Cumani's Fish N Chips landed a thumping gamble in terrible sea fret with Pat Eddery sat motionless as they emerged from the gloom.

IF we get the heavy rain some are forecasting on a surface that already looks loose on top, though the times today were again Good-ground times, one with form on easy going is Magellan.

I'm surprised he's 40/1 - I'd have him about half those odds.
 
Magellan Cloud. I thought that was generous too, so had a small investment. Still happy with Thunder Wonder, even though he is now 50/1.
 
I was going to attempt a multiple with the sole purpose of never returning to work again however I've got so far in and found 2 I'm slightly more optimistic than usual about so I've stopped there and gone for an e/w double.

In the first I like Parole d'oro 9/1. His run at Newmarket looked like he was crying out for this 10F just failed to reach Dutch Decoy who dotted up off 3lb higher next time out over the same CD and he's obviously very well handicapped now he's found his form again. Can only see Parole being better over this trip. Slight concern about being drawn 1 hoping he breaks ok and gets a decent position also slightly concerned about the ground getting softer as that's a bit of an unknown but other than that I think he's a fairly solid proposition.

The other one who I'm more confident about is Brosay in the sprint. Cracking performance at Sandown 2runs ago finsihed in front of Red orange so the form has a fairly solid look. Possible excuses since took off his feet at Ascot possibly the Fast ground not suiting as he won his Maiden here on heavy. Then went to Southwell and took his time to get going was a lot better than the finishing position suggested as he's couldn't get a run. So back on turf on a slower surface anything like his performance at Sandown should see him in the mix 12/1 is more than a fair price and hopefully the rain will have gotten into the ground a bit by then to give him a helping hand.

Good luck lads.
 
I think a minor return on Mdawi yesterday is all I've had so far this week but despite Tuesday's losses, heavy considering how few races I was involved in, I'm actually feeling quite lucky because the opener yesterday was the only race I got involved in apart from a tiny speculation on Carl Spackler, so rather than losing loads I've avoided doing so and for that I have to be thankful!

Thursday is quiet too for me but I look like being more active on Friday, for better, for worse, for richer, for poorer...

Anyway, I used to love the old Extel. This is what I' have in mind today, written on Tuesday with the odds as they were then.

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The weather gods are smiling on me want it good in the first and as soft as possible by 3.45 , the stars are aligning :)
 
Not a lot I fancy today. Couple of trackers out in Fort George in the opener and Wicked in the last and the latter is a bit short to bother with soooo will back the former ew and I'm also backing Coppull because I like David Armstrong's naming policy. I used to work in Coppull.
 
Oh my god the rain right now!!! 😧😧😧 I am sooooo glad I was there yesterday. I was about to say I thought the ground which looked a bit loose on top in places and was throwing up some false patches with several horses either pulling up or going wrong. Maybe this rain will change that (hopefully)
 
And its back again - I am so glad I am not riding in that. The threat of being hit by lightning as exposed as that is real
 
The most Goodwood of Goodwood races: a good horse beats a rat, with heavy rain, lightning, a tape start, and a favourite that hated the ground.
How could you bet on this shit?
 
Ian_Davies said:
Au contraire, Blackadder.

A sudden change in going is one of the biggest opportunities a punter gets - find those Heavy-ground horses before the traders and the market does.
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With your comment ringing in my ears, I thought it likely Whirl might win this by quite a way as others wouldn’t like the going. When I looked at lengthen the odds for the first time ever, I couldn’t believe how poor the odds were. Against my better judgement and so I had a financial interest in the race, I took 3/1 for 3.5l or more, but after that, 4l was only 100/30, 4.5l 7/2 and so on. These are shocking value odds. I won’t be looking at that again.
 

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