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The 2025 Grand National

Between Cheltenham being by and the latest dec stage the other day, the chances are nothing else will run between now and the big day (unless something tries the Topham en route) so I reckon it's a good time to finalise my figures.

Since I won't be studying this weekend's racing I should be able to make decent inroads. I already did the entries down to #60 so it's just a matter of catching up on the from from the last three weeks or so. I do have a fair idea of what I like and don't like and have a fair few bets already on but I don't want to be looking back and asking myself how I missed something I really should have covered.
 
I have a bit more checking and tweaking to do but this is where my figures stand at the moment (the higher-rated ones).

(Edit - ignore the 'form' and 'days' columns, the card is the one I created the day the weights came out.)

Alongside these I tend to do another set of ratings with the adjustment of 1½ per pound to account the extremeness of this test, especially if it is very soft, and the effect of carrying weight. The stronger the pace the more likely this second set of ratings is to end up more accurate. I haven't done them yet but it's easy enough to look at the classier lightweights and see which are more likely to be favoured.

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The horse that my 2 observations from last year selects, that I don't know much about but also seems to be getting supported 33/1 into 25/1 is Minella Cocooner.

I see Mullins is the trainer, and MC won the 365 Gold Cup just under a year ago, but he does seem out of form since. Does anyone know anymore ?
 
Interesting money for Senior Chief on the exchange today. Traded as low as 28; last week before the scratchings it was trading in the 80s.
 
I got 50/1 NRNB for one of the brothers (who doesn't use online betting so is limited to local shops) yesterday.

Can't say it's that high up my list of fancies, to be honest.
 
Alex said:
The horse that my 2 observations from last year selects, that I don't know much about but also seems to be getting supported 33/1 into 25/1 is Minella Cocooner.

I see Mullins is the trainer, and MC won the 365 Gold Cup just under a year ago, but he does seem out of form since. Does anyone know anymore ?
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He's been running in races he had no chance in. I've took 40s.
 
Horantzau d'Airy (66/1) - number 35 on the list of remaining entries- has been sold by the Riccis for 50,000g and has joined Michael Keady in Newmarket from Willie Mullins. A second to Flooring Porter in the Kerry National last September isn't a bad piece of form
 
Outsider said:
He's been running in races he had no chance in. I've took 40s.
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Well done if you got 40's 👏, apart from the fact he has not won a race recently (which is important), he has the profile of I Am Maximus. So there could be gamble on him, I now wish I trusted my instinct more on 33/1, I guess time will tell and we will see.

Probably not the wisest thing to do, but I am going with my gut feeling, after a few pints (lol). I have just had another nibble at 28/1 365 boost ew (5 places). It does feel as if Mullins has prepared him for this race.
 
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Jayhawk said:
Horantzau d'Airy (66/1) - number 35 on the list of remaining entries- has been sold by the Riccis for 50,000g and has joined Michael Keady in Newmarket from Willie Mullins. A second to Flooring Porter in the Kerry National last September isn't a bad piece of form
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When I saw how high this one was in my table I had another look but wasn't aware it had been sold. That would be enough to put me off. I did back it in the Hennessy because Willie had sent it over but it never got competitive.

I reckon if it was thought to have any kind of a chance the minimum asking price would have been £100k, the kind of money the Thompsons tend to splash out on a runner.

May some pennies' sickness insurance on the exchange on the day.
 
Inothewayurthinkin may have become the shortish price winner of the Grand National if he had ran.

Apparently, the horse that holds that holds that record, won the race over a 100 years ago.

In 1919 Poethlyn won the Grand National at odds of 11/4.
 
I'll check if I can find a minute but I think that refers to winners of the race. I'm pretty sure Freddie in the late 1960s went off shorter but didn't win.
 
Alex said:
Well done if you got 40's 👏, apart from the fact he has not won a race recently (which is important), he has the profile of I Am Maximus. So there could be gamble on him, I now wish I trusted my instinct more on 33/1, I guess time will tell and we will see.

Probably not the wisest thing to do, but I am going with my gut feeling, after a few pints (lol). I have just had another nibble at 28/1 365 boost ew (5 places). It does feel as if Mullins has prepared him for this race.
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I have also been tempted to have another ew nibble, on one of my other 2 observations qualifiers Grangeclare West. This one has been a drifter, I originally took 20/1 but just got 33/1 with Will. Another gut feeling, but a sober one this time 😃.
 
According to Wiki he was 11/4.

I think he was 7/2 another time.

One of the reasons I remember Freddie was because we used to trek across to my granda's house to watch the race (we didn't have a telly) and my dad would get us to pick one each and he'd put 6d on it for us. I vaguely recall being clueless (plus ça change...) and him saying, "Freddie will win," so I went for that not realising that 3d ew would probably only have returned 1/4d had it won and I don't think I ever saw the 5d that the place money would have returned.
 


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