The 2025 Grand National

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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90 entries and a race I love to bet on, even though I've had to adapt my betting strategy to mirror the much-changed nature of the race.

William Hill (if you can. get on!) did NRNB ante post at pretty much the same odds as the rest last year and that can be a real edge as if you have a portfolio the ones who don't progress usually get taken out.

I Am Maximus at 25/1 was in my initial portfolio of 12 last year and most of the others were withdrawn.
 
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Too early even for me to be thinking about the race but at least it gets us talking about it, which is always fun.

Nobody is going NRNB/MB just yet which makes it easy to keep it on the back burner for now.

WH won't let me back EW and are restricting win bet stakes so I'll have to forget the idea of backing with them.

The brother was on I Am Maximus quite early last year too. I think he took 33/1 the morning it won its prep in the Bobbyjo. He definitely backed it that morning, not sure about the price but it was a good one.

Weights are out on Tuesday 11 February so I don't expect anything currently likely to make the cut to win before then unless it's a diddy race they're expected to win. However those on 145 or less might well need to get up the ratings a few pounds to improve their chances of getting a run.
 
archie said:
Munster National - 3m - October.
Cork Grand National - 3m4f - November.
?
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Thanks for that, I'm glad I didn't claim my list was definitive, I've checked and they're def two more to add to the list ! :-)
It seems both of those started in 2009, unless they had a very different name before then.

Anymore for anymore ?
 
It doesn't get called a 'national trial' or anything like that but it is, de facto, one of the National trials: the Hennessy.

The Bobbyjo is probably now the foremost of them all and I'd include the Thyestes.

I'd argue some of the races on the list are national trials in title only. Some are 0-130 or 0-140 and the chances of a winner getting into the big one are remote.
 
pawras said:
Thanks for that, I'm glad I didn't claim my list was definitive, I've checked and they're def two more to add to the list ! :-)
It seems both of those started in 2009, unless they had a very different name before then.

Anymore for anymore ?
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When we won the Cork race in 2022 with Captain Kangaroo, it definitely gave Willie ideas about Aintree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It doesn't get called a 'national trial' or anything like that but it is, de facto, one of the National trials: the Hennessy.

The Bobbyjo is probably now the foremost of them all and I'd include the Thyestes.

I'd argue some of the races on the list are national trials in title only. Some are 0-130 or 0-140 and the chances of a winner getting into the big one are remote.
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I don't think they're all intending to be trials for the Aintree Grand National

And as for the Newbury Coral (Hennessy) Gold Cup Chase Handicap being a trial, I have the numbers and since 2000, 80 horses have ran in the Hennessy in Nov and gone on to run in the following Aintree Grand National in April and 5 (6.25%) have won and 13 (16.25%) have won or placed. Within that 7 winners of the Hennessy have tried and 1 (14.29%) has won. Last win 2023

Re past stats you are best off looking at the Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Stakes, 31 have gone to the following Aintree Grand National, 3 have won and 8 have won or placed. Last win 2019

66 have gone from the Gowran Park Thyestes Chase Handicap to the following Aintree Grand National , 1 has won and 5 have won or placed, last win 2016

61 have gone from Fairyhouse Bobbyjo Chase Stakes to the following Aintree Grand National , 2 have won and 12 have won or placed, last win 2024
 
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In mid Feb you have the Haydock Grand National Trial Chase Handicap 3m 4f 97y Grade3, but since 2000, 83 runners have gone to the following Aintree Grand National and only 2 (2.41%) have won and 9 (10.84%) have won or placed.
10 winners from Haydock have tried and none have won.

So if it’s not much cop as a trial for the National, what is it a decent trial for?
Interestingly since 2000, 13 runners have gone from Haydock Grand National Trial in mid Feb to Newcastle Eider Chase Handicap 4m 1f 56y C2 a week later and although none have won but 5 (38.5%) have placed.
The Haydock race may not be a worthwhile pointer to the Aintree Grand National, it does provide a positive for the Chepstow Welsh Grand National Chase Handicap 3m 6f 130y Grade3, since 2000, 55 have gone from Haydock trial to the following Welsh National and 6 (10.9%) have won and 17 (30.91%) have won or placed.

What are the formline trial taces for the Haydock Grand National Trial? One race to watch out for is runners coming from last March’s Uttoxeter Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap 4m 2f 8y Grade3. 22 runners have gone from Uttox race to the following Haydock National Trial, 2 (9.09%) have won and 9 (40.91%) have won or placed.
Another race is Cheltenham National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase Stakes 3m 5f 201y Grade2, 18 runners have gone from that race to the following Haydock National Trial, 3 (16.67%) have won and 7 (38.9%) have won or placed.
 
The Eider Chase at Newcastle used to be seen as a National trial with Comply or Die winning both races. It's run after weights for Aintree have been allocated but I'd say that today's fashion would be that, with only a 6 or 7 week gap, it's a little too close to the big one.
 
archie said:
The Eider Chase at Newcastle used to be seen as a National trial with Comply or Die winning both races. It's run after weights for Aintree have been allocated but I'd say that today's fashion would be that, with only a 6 or 7 week gap, it's a little too close to the big one.
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Must be a while since cos from 2000 14 that have gone from the Eider to Aintree and one has won, i.e. Comply or Die in 2008 when it won both.
 
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The majority of Eider runners, from recent memory, tend to be rated around 140 or lower so have little chance of getting to Aintree anyway.

Last year the top weight was The Galloping Bear off 140.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The majority of Eider runners, from recent memory, tend to be rated around 140 or lower so have little chance of getting to Aintree anyway.

Last year the top weight was The Galloping Bear off 140.
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Agreed. As I said, the modern orthodoxy goes against 2 marathon races in a short space of time. Also, the qualification restrictions for Aintree make the Eider less viable, particularly as the Aintree mark is already set.

I'm fairly sure that the race used to be a genuine National trial.
 
After some further due diligence I've expanded the list by another 10, mainly in IRE. I'm now up to 30 with 3 official trials
Let me know if there's any more I've missed. I think I'll set my db going to see which act as trial races for which others.

1738452004484.png
 
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archie said:
When we won the Cork race in 2022 with Captain Kangaroo, it definitely gave Willie ideas about Aintree.
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Now I have the Cork Grand National Chase Handicap 3m 4f Listed which last ran 03/11/2024, set up in my db for cross reference, I had a look at what races it acts as a good trial for.

Re Aintree
Since 2000, 9 horses have gone from the Cork Grand National to the following Aintree Grand National in April , 0 have won and on 1 has placed.
Since 2000, 14 horses have gone from the Cork Grand National to the following Aintree Becher Chase Handicap in Dec, 2 have won and 0 have placed.

However

Since 2000, 10 horses have gone from the Cork Grand National to the following Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Stakes in March, 1 has won and 5 have placed giving and each way strike of 60% and a £1 to ISP level stakes profit of £23.22
 
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I think it's a younger horse's race nowadays.

The two I like at the moment (before seeing the weights) are 8yo Stumptown, who imo won at Cheltenham (Cross Country) in December with plenty in hand, and 7yo Inothewayurthinkin, who I've liked for the race since he was 15.25l fifth to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills.

Couple of worries with the latter, though - firstly his trainer has this weird idea the horse is too inexperienced for the Grand National fences (they're easier than Cheltenham and the Mildmay course nowadays and he's won over both) plus what will the BHA Handicapper do to him for slashing the deficit with Galopin Des Champd to 7.25l by running an absolute stormer to finish fourth yesterday?

If he leaves him on 159 and the trainer has a change of heart and targets him at the race, I think he could be this year's I Am Maximus, but that's a lot of "ifs!"
 
pawras said:
Now I have the Cork Grand National Chase Handicap 3m 4f Listed which last ran 03/11/2024, set up in my db for cross reference, I had a look at what races it acts as a good trial for.

Re Aintree
Since 2000, 9 horses have gone from the Cork Grand National to the following Aintree Grand National in April , 0 have won and on 1 has placed.
Since 2000, 14 horses have gone from the Cork Grand National to the following Aintree Becher Chase Handicap in Dec, 2 have won and 0 have placed.

However

Since 2000, 10 horses have gone from the Cork Grand National to the following Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Stakes in March, 1 has won and 5 have placed giving and each way strike of 60% and a £1 to ISP level stakes profit of £23.22
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The thing about Mallow is that it's fairly wet so this race is usually run on soft or worse ground. As with any marathon handicap, that sort of ground will favour the lower weights who will probably find it difficult to achieve a mark that will get in at Aintree. Captain Kangaroo was rated 120 when winning. He was put up to 132 in Ireland and next ran in the Becher Chase off a UK mark of 135.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I think it's a younger horse's race nowadays.
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I'm not sure.

Noble Yeats was the first 7yo since 1940 and although other recent winners have been 8/9yo I think it's simply a matter of the combination of the best handicapped horses staying the trip and running their races on the day.


Edit - on a side note, GN day hasn't been the same since the pandemic. We no longer have family get-togethers to watch it, mainly because my siblings and I feel we are too old to be hosting a couple of dozen people when the youngest generation (the grandchildren) aren't interested in the race. Orchidette, while she likes winning it (and has done a few times), doesn't really bother about watching it and is developing an aversion to crowds (so she takes after me in that respect) and last year Mrs O, who doesn't get into it either, and I watched it in our hotel room in Spain.

It's honestly not the same when the banter is being exchanged via WhatsApp rather than seeing the whites of the eyes as it is delivered.
 
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