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The 2025 King George VI Chase

The happiness generated by this wide-ranging discussion is so immense Your Favourite Uncle Smart Arse can scarcely articulate the ongoing joy it is bringing him.

YFUSA will be naming: the most likely winner, the beast that most closely conforms to YFUSA's definition of being "the wrong price" and the Tricast shortly after the final declarations.

There is absolutely no need to thank YFUSA for this - he's all about sending local urchins out for Turkeys the size of Bournemouth when least expected to do so.
 
Im now glad i didnt smash into him antepost but gutted for the contest itself but that drift definitely looks like an announcement is imminent.

Good news for the rest of you who've backed other things antepost. Which seems to be a fair few.
 

Chaos in the King George betting as Fact To File takes an alarming walk in the market before shortening back in​


There was chaos in the King George VI Chase market on Monday afternoon as Fact To File drifted out to as big as 8-1 with one firm, having been a general 5-2 shot at the close of play on Sunday, before hardening in again to 7-2.

Connections had previously revealed the intention to run last season's imperious Ryanair Chase winner in the Kempton showpiece on December 26, but his drift in the King George betting resulted in his price for the Savills Chase at Leopardstown two days later being cut into 5-2 with Bet365, having been as big as 14-1 on Sunday. He has since drifted back out 10-1 for the Leopardstown contest.

Sponsors Ladbrokes reported the Nicky Henderson-trained Jango Baie was the subject of heavy support into 9-4 and leapfrogged Fact To File in the betting, who was pushed out to 7-2. Fact To File's stablemate Gaelic Warrior remains the 2-1 favourite.

Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: "It's all change at the head of the King George betting and we're strapping in for what could be one of the most hotly contested races of the year."

The King George field will be finalised on Tuesday morning at the declarations stage.

Mullins has won the race on two occasions, with Florida Pearl in 2001 and most recently with Tornado Flyer, who ran out a surprise 28-1 winner four years ago.

In the wake of the market activity, At The Races reported that Mullins had "confirmed all is okay" with Fact To File and that he remained on course for Kempton and the King George.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Nine confirmed entries.

Banbridge Joseph O'Brien
Croke Park Gordon Elliott
Djelo Venetia Williams
Fact To File Willie Mullins
Gaelic Warrior Willie Mullins
Il Est Francais Tom George
Jango Baie Nicky Henderson
Master Chewy Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
The Jukebox Man Ben Pauling
Click to expand...

8 declared

Only Croke Park scratched
 
As stated by the faster-than-I Truncheon, it's the "Dead Eight!"

Banbridge Sean Bowen
Djelo Charlie Deutsch
Fact To File Mark Walsh
Gaelic Warrior Paul Townend
Il Est Francais Harry Cobden
Jango Baie Nico de Boinville
Master Chewy Sam Twiston-Davies
The Jukebox Man Ben Jones

Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-12-26-kempton/14:30/winner
 
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Ian_Davies said:
YFUSA will be naming: the most likely winner, the beast that most closely conforms to YFUSA's definition of being "the wrong price" and the Tricast shortly after the final declarations.
Click to expand...
This will be comfortably YFUSA's least valuable contribution to the forum's betting discussion in all the time he's been back on here.

Most Likely Winner: Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File are the best horses in this race, they've already got the edge on last year's winner and runner up in YFUSA's book, and if you dutch Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File the only worry is them running to form after that Punchestown battle.

The "Wrong Price:" Djelo. I think he's got almost as much chance as Jango Baie, who is much shorter.

The 1-2-3: Gaelic Warrior, Fact To File and Jango Baie.

How effing boring is THAT?

This from Mr Three And A Half Grand To One Trifecta - just embarrassing, frankly.

YFUSA apologises to the entire forum (except Walsworth).
 
The vibes before the Durkan were that Gaelic Warrior was fitter or at least working better than Fact To File. It's a tiny difference to turn around so, for me, the reverse forecast is the way to go as I don't see Jango in the same class.
Still plenty of time for things to change though.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Jango Baie is a smart young progressive chaser, but he's still behind Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File for me on what he's done so far and they're both still young chasers themselves.
Click to expand...
On this line of thinking, and I'm sure you're not alone in thinking it, you'd have to ask why is he the fav with a few firms. Hence, I think his price will be bigger on the day for anyone planning to back him.

4/1 or 9/2 would make more sense.
 
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My computer is doing it's Boxing day calcs with the full decs out today , in viewing terms I'm very much looking forward to watching it, in betting terms though it's just one race..................
 
Slim would know better than me where the big money will go at the death, but all the superficial indications to me at the moment are that Gaelic Warrior goes off favourite.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Slim would know better than me where the big money will go at the death, but all the superficial indications to me at the moment are that Gaelic Warrior goes off favourite.
Click to expand...

Nothing as Ill informed as a bookmaker representative indicating what will go off favourite. A few players on Betfair will decide that.
 
Slim said:
Nothing as Ill informed as a bookmaker representative indicating what will go off favourite. A few players on Betfair will decide that.
Click to expand...
I don't base my impressions - even superficial ones - on what bookmaker representatives say.

And yes, while I flatter myself experience over the years (though the advent of the social media tipster has rendered a lot of my old indicators obsolete) gives me a bit of a handle on where the small money might go, I readily agree the late big money on the machine will ultimately determine who the jolly is.
 

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