The 2025 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
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Aug 2, 2005
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Musselburgh 1.45 - Bringbackmemories 25/1 - only two places on offer but this could be a good thing if it can bring its good Flat form to the party. It won a juvenile hurdle here back in the day and a lot of its best form is at this track.
 
Another couple:

Chelt 2.40 - Itchy Feet 33/1, An Tailliur 33/1

IF is top on my figures but vulnerable to improvers. Price looks too generous. AT, I think has been mentioned elsewhere, is joint-top on its old form but the yard is now flying again so who knows what might happen.
 
Sergeant 20/1 2.05 Wincanton tomorrow
Finished 3rd over c/d last time out.
Has a chance in a poorer contest.
 
Very unlucky with that one Yorick wide no cover taken outback given a mountain to climb easily best horse in the race on the day and 2nd.
 
Yup. I thought he was coming with a winning run there, didn't you?

An unusual cat litter bet so mustn't grumble.
 
Just to remind newbies that candidates for the thread have to be on offer at 20/1 somewhere at the time of posting.

Thanks in advance.

Been busy studying for tomorrow so missed the good runner up mentioned a few minutes ago so nice to see the thread off to a nice start.
 
Would love to (fairly) confidently say 'today is the day' (and there are one or two markers that say it might be)...but there are enough doubts, too....

This Time Maybe goes in the 12f last at Wolves tonight, best 33 with a few (bits of mid 50 BF). On his last half a dozen runs, it could be 66 or 80 by race time.

Has 'missed' at least 3 runs over the last few weeks - a 7f at Chelmsford (wouldn't have got a run), a 12f at Newc (stable sent up two other runners so my guess is there wasn't room for 3 on such a long trip), and a 10f at Newc (was due to be ridden by Clifford Lee, 2 from 2 for the stable, don't know why he didn't run though most available evidence suggests that might have been the day).

As we can see, all over the place distance-wise, indicating Mark Usher truly doesn't know. Handicap-wise, he could 6-length a race at some point

So, a big risk. But this is weak. And MU himself eloquently puts all my thoughts into words for me....

This Time May Be, now down to 48 from an original om of 77, got nicely into the divided twelve furlong Handicap at Wolverhampton this evening; by several measures he is now a very well handicapped horse, particularly on his run at Salisbury at the very end of August; but several constraints make it not so easy to predict how he might run this evening, the most obvious being that he goes up to twelve furlongs for the ft and he has never run over further than eight; and a second is that it is going on two months since he last ran, although that self evidently could be positive; as regards the trip his pedigree on his dam's side would suggest that he might not get home over 12f although his sire was highly effective at eleven furlongs in high class Grade One races; tricky and how he gets on this evening will help inform us of the way ahead with him; it might not be quite out of the question for him to jump a hurdle or two in the Spring.

I'm taking the Time Test marker to be the active one, but clearly that could be wishful thinking.

The good news - a total blowout today still leaves the door open for a big price at 8 or 10f.

Not one to go mad on with the doubts, but 50 or 66 or higher (and/or mid 80s+ BF) is probably worth the risk.
 
It's great when they just scrape in for at least some return, isn't it. Mildly disappointing, though, for a few strides a furlong out there was a chance of a take-off. Hard to tell, maybe just blew up a little after the break, maybe just doesn't quite get the 12f enough to kick on at the end. Sadly, that's blown the big prices for a while :-( But there will be days for others :)
 
Art Of Diplomacy 20/1 ffos las 3.31 tomorrow.
Ran ok when 3rd last time out over 2 miles 5 furlongs.
This drop in trip could be the answer.
Faces 2 progressive types, but the Bowens know the time of day and the price looks too big.
 
Desijo said:
Art Of Diplomacy 20/1 ffos las 3.31 tomorrow.
Ran ok when 3rd last time out over 2 miles 5 furlongs.
This drop in trip could be the answer.
Faces 2 progressive types, but the Bowens know the time of day and the price looks too big.
Click to expand...
Finished 3rd
Nice bit of place money
Took 20s yesterday afternoon
Sp only 5/1.
 
I've had a look at the 2m race at Southwell (3.22) and I reckon Quercus Robur is reasonable value at 50/1 Ew. Seems yo have dropped to a dangerous mark and well down in class since last run.
 
yorick said:
I've had a look at the 2m race at Southwell (3.22) and I reckon Quercus Robur is reasonable value at 50/1 Ew. Seems yo have dropped to a dangerous mark and well down in class since last run.
Click to expand...
There's a video on Tw*tter of QR on a beach gallop a few days ago, looks (or looked) well, head down, leading a few others. Only a gallop mind, but at least he's been out and about. Newcastle form from 2023 might well put him into this if fully fit.
 
Hmm. Given a 'considerate' ride, not in any way hard pressed and I think ran on a little in the final furlong.

He's not far off, I reckon.
 
Chatty Girl 3.10 m Rasen
Won well first time out at Newbury in a decent looking bumper.
Looked a little green that day and looks sure to Improve.
Looks a huge each way price at 33/1 with bet 365.
 
Windsor 3.35 - Hardy Du Seuil, 4 places, 33/1 - joint-third top on my figures on his best form but the claimer takes off 7lbs and he has a very good record for the yard from few rides. If he's worth 5lbs of the seven (and assuming the horse is trying) he's entitled to be in the mix. Not my main bet in the race, though.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Windsor 3.35 - Hardy Du Seuil, 4 places, 33/1 - joint-third top on my figures on his best form but the claimer takes off 7lbs and he has a very good record for the yard from few rides. If he's worth 5lbs of the seven (and assuming the horse is trying) he's entitled to be in the mix. Not my main bet in the race, though.
Click to expand...

Blue generally at oddschecker this evening...
 
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