The 2025 Longshot Thread

Might And Power said:
1.08 Lingfield - Star Of Sussex 100/1 ( Generally ) 0.50pt EW

Poor form with only one place in thirteen starts, with an official rating of just 49 - down from an initial mark of 75. Was entitled to need his run last time out when last of eight here over 10 furlongs, his first outing for nine months. This is a truly dreadful contest and if you take out High Court Judge & Largo Bay then nothing else has shown much recently. Hard to see him winning but may run better than the odds suggest and a minimum stakes interest in the hope of a minor place.
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Pulled hard early on and held up until the turn for home, never put in the race but picked a few off in the straight ....... will need to be a very low grade race if he is to make the frame in the future.
 
viking said:
Sure Touch 3.15 Doncaster tomorrow
This fella may benefit from the step up in trip with stamina in his pedigree being by Yeats out of Liberthine and has slipped to a mark only 2lb above his Summer Plate win.
28/1 with William Hill (5 places)
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I agree. On my short list and I managed to get 33s (5 places).

(I'll probably be mob-handed in the race, though.)
 
Chel 1.15 - Victory Shout 100/1 - hurdling debutant in a decent race but on Flat ratings has only a couple of pounds to find on the admittedly proven fit and experienced odds-on favourite, but that price looks too generous. It might mean the bookies already have word that it will need the race but it doesn't cost much to find out if they're wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I planned to back it too. Hoping for a big drift [on Happygolucky] by tomorrow.
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Managed to get 66/1 to 4 places and 100/1 (3). Glad I held off but worried that there is no money for it. The stable won the Welsh National but there was a late flood of money for the winner. If this one doesn't shorten up we can probably write it off before it starts.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Managed to get 66/1 to 4 places and 100/1 (3). Glad I held off but worried that there is no money for it. The stable won the Welsh National but there was a late flood of money for the winner. If this one doesn't shorten up we can probably write it off before it starts.
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The drift is a cincern butv I've just gone in again at William hill.
Odds boosted to 117/1
Worth a go to small stakes👍🏻
 
Looking at Grange Walk, Leopardstown 4.05 on Saturday. Has come 2nd in this race previously + was in the act of running well in it again a year later, before coming down 2 out. Eleven, or 12lb lower now. Looks out of form at the moment hence the 50/1 available. Who knows, back in the race may rejuvenate him.
 
Walking On Air has been raised 4lbs, the same as the winner.

That suggests to me the handicapper thinks it would have won. Putting it up more than the winner would have attracted criticism.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Walking On Air has been raised 4lbs, the same as the winner.

That suggests to me the handicapper thinks it would have won. Putting it up more than the winner would have attracted criticism.
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I backed the winner, but it's a double whammy for connections.
A 4lbs rise and the likelihood of reduced odds next time out🤔
 
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